Record World Cereal Outputs Forecast for 2023/24

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By Paul Homewood

What climate crisis?

Global corn production is forecast to sharply
increase, driven primarily by a forecast of continued
high production in Brazil and rebounds in the United
States and Argentina. Supplies in Ukraine are
forecast to fall as the ongoing war limits production.
Trade is forecast to increase as ample supplies from
major exporters Brazil, Argentina, and the United
States lower prices and supports a rebound in global
demand. Global consumption of corn for both feed
and non-feed uses is forecast up. Ending stocks are
also forecast to rise, primarily due to a strong surge
in stocks in the United States.

The global wheat outlook is for larger production
and consumption with declining global trade and
ending stocks. Production is projected to increase
with larger crops in Argentina, Canada, China, the
European Union (EU), India, and Turkey more than
offsetting large declines for Australia, Kazakhstan,
Russia, and Ukraine. Global trade will contract with
lower imports for China. Declines in exports for
Australia, India, Ukraine, and the United States will
more than offset increases for Argentina, Canada,
and the EU. Global consumption is forecast up on
larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use more than
offsetting lower feed and residual use. Ending
stocks are forecast down, with smaller stocks in the
EU, Russia, and the United States.

Global rice production is forecast at a record with
larger production in Asia, especially on record crops
in Bangladesh, India, and China along with a
recovery in Pakistan. Global consumption is
expected to rise to a new record, primarily from
strong growth in India, Bangladesh, and Sub-
Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast virtually
unchanged with India remaining the top exporter.
Pakistan is expected to see significant growth in
exports amidst a rebounding crop, while forecasts
for Thailand and Vietnam – the next largest
exporters – are down due to less demand from
Indonesia. Global stocks continue a downward
trend to a 6-year low.

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