From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t lloyd jones
Our hopeless media is conflating local erosion problems in Norfolk with absurd forecasts of sea level rise:
Across the country ordinary Britons like Tim Clarke, 56 and Marie Howlett, 41 are facing financial ruin and losing their homes if they can’t find a way to win an impossible and uninsurable battle against the sea.
The couple are some of the last remaining inhabitants of the coastal enclave of Hemsby, Norfolk – a once thriving tourist spot that has now all but been condemned due to the constant coastal erosion that claimed five homes last month alone.
They and other residents of the doomed postcode claim they are fighting both the elements and their local councils, who say they are powerless to stop the process of the erosion.
Tim bought his two-bed detached bungalow for £60,000 eighteen months ago, fulfilling a dream to live by the coast, having moved from Lincolnshire.
The pair live with their daughter Isabella, 10 and their house is now the last one with road access since the March storm which claimed several homes and eight feet of coastline.
Research by climate action group One Home predicts that by 2100, over 2000 properties worth £584million will tumble off cliffs and into the sea with no possible course of action that will avert it.
And if they’re not falling into the sea, a gloomy report published last year by flood expert Paul Sayers suggests they’ll soon be swallowed by it.
According to Climate Change Committee report, nearly 200,000 properties in England may have to be abandoned due to rising sea levels by 2050.
Researchers said the country could face around 14 inches (35cm) of sea level rise compared to historic levels within 30 years and is nearly certain to see close to 3ft (1m) of advancement by the end of the century.
This rate would scrub parts of North Norfolk, Kent and Cornwall off the map.
Meanwhile the ludicrous Guardian goes one stage further, describing Hemsby’s inhabitants as climate-crisis refugees.
As we should all know by now, this same coastal erosion has been taking place in Norfolk for thousands of years; it has nothing to do with climate change, as the BGS Regional Geologist explained just last month:
In fact, as is often the case, matters are much more complex at Hemsby than appear at first sight. Jacobs undertook a study for the local council in 2018:
And it made some interesting points.
For a start, this sort of loss properties is not new, but has been occurring since at least the Second World War. Surprisingly there have also been periods since then of dune growth, as well as decline.
Indeed it appears that the coastline was further inland 200 years ago, since when the dunes have developed on which several houses have been built.
It is of course dunes which help to protect the cliffs.
Another significant factor is the shifting northwards of the Winterton Ness, which is closely connected to the loss of sand on the beach at Hemsby:
Again we find that this movement of the Ness has been occurring for a long time:
And as Jacobs conclude, it is not a simple matter of dune erosion, but the result of a chain reaction of natural movements:
The Jacobs study also includes this old map from 1817. Note that there are no houses anywhere near the cliffs. There was a good reason for this!
It was only in the mid 20thC that house building along the cliffs really began:
To top it all though, the Mail and Guardian are attempting to con people that Hemsby is evidence that much of England’s coasts will end up going the same way. The Mail comments:
Research by climate action group One Home predicts that by 2100, over 2000 properties worth £584million will tumble off cliffs and into the sea with no possible course of action that will avert it.
And if they’re not falling into the sea, a gloomy report published last year by flood expert Paul Sayers suggests they’ll soon be swallowed by it.
According to Climate Change Committee report, nearly 200,000 properties in England may have to be abandoned due to rising sea levels by 2050.
Researchers said the country could face around 14 inches (35cm) of sea level rise compared to historic levels within 30 years and is nearly certain to see close to 3ft (1m) of advancement by the end of the century.
In fact the first estimate of 2000 properties is probably about right, and is an insignificant number in the overall view of things. Very few houses from the 1950s are unlikely even to be standing in 2100 anyway.
But claims of 200,000 properties underwater by 2050 are absurd and dishonest, as is the forecast of 35cm of sea level rise within 30 years – the figure for the last 30 years is more like 6cm.
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