From Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The L A Times published an Editorial on March 21, 2023 addressing the latest United Nations climate alarmist report propaganda (as shown below) which the Times Editorial Board swallows hook, line and sinker with incompetent and grossly incomplete analysis. 

These UN IPCC climate report “updates” have been ongoing for the last 30+ years with each of these alarming “update” climate agreement proposed schemes having no meaningful impact on reducing global emissions as shown below on the left from IEA data (with recovery in 2021 from the year 2020 Covid lockdowns) or atmospheric CO2 levels as shown below on the right from Mauna Loa Observatory data with an overlay of the many politically contrived UN IPCC climate “update” cabals in the last 30+ years.

These UN IPCC climate alarmist political “update” cabals always pose some specious alarmist global warming scheme where the world’s demise is alleged to be threatened if immediate action is not taken to reduce CO2 emissions. 

This latest updated world demise scheme is driven by IPCC extrapolated global temperature projections postulating that the Earth’s average temperature anomaly will increase by 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial times by 2035 and wreak climate havoc unless we wipe out fossil fuels and go green with wind and solar power.

The IPCC falsely claims this projected 1.5 degrees C temperature rise represents some critical temperature threshold point without realizing the Earth’s temperature anomaly has already risen by 4 degrees C since 1750 without alarming consequence with this data shown below based on Berkeley Earth global average temperature anomaly surface data as presented in a Climate Realism article exposing these latest IPCC flawed global temperature distorted and erroneous claims.

The Times further destroys the credibility of its editorial by making the following propaganda claim that is completely unsupported by any scientific measured data whatsoever while being contradicted by Berkeley Earth’s global temperature anomaly data going back to 1750.

“Though 1.5 degrees of warming would be horrible enough, every fraction of a degree we go beyond that would mean greater human suffering and environmental destruction.”

The Times Editorial staff simply regurgitates the politically contrived and flawed IPCC scientifically unsupported 1.5 degree C climate alarmism propaganda as exposed in the Climate Realism analysis.     

The Times editorial ignores and conceals EPA and NOAA climate measurement data that completely contradicts and undermines its lack of climate expertise regarding its assessment of approaching doom. A few examples of this data are noted in the items below.

The latest global temperature anomaly data show NOAA global temperature anomaly measurements over the last 7+ years are declining (at a rate of -1.3 degrees C per century) even though climate alarmists falsely proclaimed a science unsupported climate “emergency” in year 2016.

Additionally, the Times conceals and ignores the fact that all global temperature anomaly measurement systems including the land-based systems of NOAA (with data shown above), NASA GISS data, HadCRUT UK data as well as satellite measurement systems RSS data and UAH data all show declining 7+ year global temperature anomaly trends since 2016 despite the politically declared climate “emergency.”  

The UAH satellite data is shown below showing a declining trend of -2.49 degrees C per century since 2016 and no correlation with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels.

The Times editorial ignores long standing EPA data through year 2021 showing no increasing U.S. heat wave trends since the 1930s with no recent upward heat wave trends portending approaching doom as well as EPA data showing no pattern of increasing drought trends across the 48 contiguous states since 1895 as shown below. 

Additionally, the Times ignores NOAA average temperature anomaly measurement data across the continental US showing no recent increasing temperature anomaly trends portending their flawed claim of  approaching “greater human suffering and environmental destruction.”

The Times ignores the extensive year 2022 latest updated NOAA sea level rise data showing no acceleration in the rate of sea level rise at U.S. coastal locations that has been falsely threatened by climate alarmists during the past 4 decades with grossly failed predictions starting at the Democrats climate alarmist Senate hearings in 1988 which have been conveniently concealed and ignored by the Times. 

The data for the New York City Battery Station which has the longest measured time interval for U.S stations at 166 years is shown below with a consistent rate of 0.95 feet (11.4 inches) per century.

Shown below the NOAA data are photos of probably the most photographed icon in the U.S. the Statue of Liberty with the photo on the left taken in 1898 and on the right in 2022 (taken on a recent trip) indicating that little has changed regarding sea level rise in the last 124 years between these photos as expected based on NOAA’s meticulously measured scientific coastal sea level rise measured data.

In the Southern California area NOAA’s Sea level rise data for San Diego represents the longest recorded record at 116 years with a consistent sea level rise rate of 0.73 feet (8.76 inches per century) per century. NOAA’s U.S. coastal sea level rise data records simply do not support climate alarmists claims of sea level rise acceleration at these locations and completely contradict the flawed and failed claims of sea level rise acceleration by climate alarmists during the last 4 decades.

Nor is there any evidence of increasing trends for frequency or strengthening of global hurricanes based on NOAA’s hurricane data measurements as shown below from 1980 with this outcome concealed and grossly misrepresented by incompetent climate alarmist media.

Also there no increase in the frequency and intensity of tornadoes in the U.S. as noted in the NOAA data shown below.

None of the above as well extensive additional measured EPA and NOAA climate science measurement data provides justification or support regarding the L A Times climate alarmists propaganda statements portending “greater human suffering and environmental destruction” as hyped in their flawed editorial.

Based on the flawed and distorted IPCC 1.5 degree C temperature propaganda claims the Times urges the following local action that it regards as needed to address the latest IPCC climate alarmist update as:

“From local government to heads of state, officials at all levels should exercise whatever authority they have to dismantle the dangerous machinery of fossil fuels and replace it quickly with clean, renewable energy. Whether it’s accelerating the end of gas-fired plants, oil drilling and internal-combustion cars, or clearing the way for vehicle electrification and wind and solar energy production and transmission, there are thousands of opportunities to avoid the very worst possibilities for our future.”

Given the ongoing global emissions increases as noted above in Figure 1 it seems appropriate that before following the Times misguided and misleading suggestions and taking action based on flawed UN IPCC climate claims by having “local government to heads of state, officials at all levels should exercise whatever authority they have to dismantle the dangerous machinery of fossil fuels” that more complete analysis of global energy and emission is warranted.

The Times suggested actions will inflict totally unnecessary and hugely damaging high costs and unreliable energy supply on their constituents. Given this outcome a much more detailed look is appropriate to determine what is really happening to the world regarding energy use and emissions.

As explained in detail below the L A Times greatest errors in their editorial are that they concealed and ignored extraordinarily important information regarding who are the major global nations and regions that are driving the upward increasing global energy use and emissions trends that the Times believes must be curtailed to alleviate its contrived claim of future “human suffering and environmental destruction.” 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) last year issued a report showing that year 2021 global CO2 emissions had rebounded to their highest levels (Figure 1 in the first graph) and blamed increased coal (the dirtiest energy fuel with the very highest emissions per unit of consumed energy) use as the main driving factor for the increase as highlighted in their report.

Coal is dominant in driving China’s energy use as well as the energy use of all the nations that make up the developing nations identified as the non-OECD nations as established by the latest energy and emissions data contained in the BP year 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy which has links available (as shown below) that provide extraordinary detail regarding world energy use and emissions over the period from 1965-2021.

The BP report establishes that in year 2021 China consumed over 53% of all global coal energy use (86.17 exajoules vs 160.10 exajoules) and uses more coal than all other nations of the world combined. 

Additionally, coal accounted for over 54% China’s total year 2021 total energy use mix (86.17 exajoules versus 157.65 exajoules) with China’s use of coal having climbed by over 55% since (86.17 exajoules versus 55.46 exajoules) 2005.

China’s energy use alone in year 2021 exceeds the energy use of the U.S., EU and UK combined and represents 26.49% of all global energy use which is by far the largest of any global nation. 

China has achieved this level of energy consumption by hugely increasing its use of coal fuel from 2005 to 2021 by over 30 exajoules with that increase alone in year 2021 energy use being 12.6% greater than the entire world’s energy provided by wind and solar in 2021. 

China’s growth in coal energy is larger than their increased use of both petroleum and natural gas combined during this same period.

The BP data shows that in year 2021 the worlds developing nations accounted for over 81% of all global energy (130.41 exajoules versus 160.10 exajoules) obtained from coal use.

The non-OECD (which includes China) nations growth in yearly coal energy between 2005 and 2021 increased by 48.32 exajoules with this increased 2021 coal energy being 77% larger than the entire world’s energy provided by wind and solar that year.

The IEA report shows that coal accounts for over 42% of all global year 2021 CO2 emissions by far the most of any energy fuel even though coal only represents about 27% of total global fuel (160.10 exajoules versus 595.15 exajoules) use.

The non-OECD nations that account for 61.37% of global energy use are also accountable for 66.67% of all global CO2 emissions. 

The higher level of 66.67% of all global emissions versus the non-OECD energy use of 61.37% of global energy is due to their very high use of coal fuel (the dirtiest of all fuels) by these nations relative to all other global nations.    

The U.S. use of coal accounted for only about 11% of its total year 2021 energy consumption (10.57 exajoules versus 92.97 exajoules) and in fact the U.S. has reduced coal energy use by over 53% since (10.57 exajoules versus 22.85 exajoules) 2005. 

These significant achievements are addressed In September 2020 the EIA released a report showing that the U.S. replaced coal fuel with higher efficiency, lower cost and lower emissions natural gas fuel with this change contributing the great majority (61.2%) of a cumulative 5.475 billion metric tons of reductions in CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2019. 

Yet even with this huge U.S. reduction in coal fuel and benefits of higher efficiency and lower emissions from natural gas Biden and the Democrats have bent over backwards to stop the production and use of natural gas (and thereby increasing its costs) in the U.S. 

The IEA published report provides data which clearly shows that China is the biggest driver by far of increasing global CO2 emissions as shown in the IEA graph below while the U.S., EU and Japan have been consistently reducing CO2 emissions for decades. 

This critical information regarding the magnitude of China and the other non-OECD nation’s huge role in increasing global coal use and dominating global emissions increases is unaddressed and concealed by the Times.

The successful efforts of the U.S. to significantly reduce use of coal fuel with higher efficiency, lower emissions and lower cost natural gas which drove the huge U.S. emission reductions between 2005 and 2021 is concealed and ignored by the Times.

For years the L A Times has been publishing a paid insert called “China Watch” which includes among other areas highlights China’s efforts to build increased renewables and become a more “green” nation in achieving its energy consumption needs with an example article from a 2021 insert shown below.

This “insert” article addresses the growing use of wind energy by China but fails to indicate that in year 2021wind energy accounted for only 3.9% of China’s total energy use and only 2.28% of the non-OECD nations total energy use. U.S. use of wind energy in 2021 was about 3.9%. 

These L A Times China “inserts” avoid mention of the China’s enormous use and growth of fossil fuels driven most of all by coal fuel nor do they address the very large role China plays in assisting the financing, building and operation of coal plants for other Asian nations noted in the article below. Despite the articles statement below that “coal is falling out of favor” the BP global energy data as evaluated and discussed in the bold type items noted above clearly show the ever-growing use of coal fuel by China and the other non-OECD nations is continuing.

In its editorial the Times ignores and conceals the staggering magnitude of China and the other non-OECD nations dominance in controlling energy use and emissions to such a degree that it is impossible for the OECD nations to control or overcome. The Times only statement in its editorial about this critical issue is a disguised and highly muted comment being:

“China has been permitting new coal-fired power plants at a staggering rate of two per week.”

Nowhere does the Times editorial provide the facts that China and the non-OECD nations dominate global energy by controlling 61.37% of all global energy use or that these nations also dominate global CO2 emissions by producing 66.67% of all global CO2 emissions in 2021.   

Nowhere does the Times editorial address the critical information that between 2005 and 2021 China and the non-OECD nations increased CO2 emissions by +8.062 billion metric tons while the U.S. and other OECD nations reduced CO2 emissions by -2.321 billion metric tons resulting in world CO2 emissions increasing by +5.74 billion metric tons during this period.

Nowhere does the Times discuss the fact that the U.S. accounted for more than half of the total OECD emissions reductions from 2005 through 2021 and that the majority of the U.S. reductions were achieved by using natural gas to replace coal fueled power plants. 

Nowhere does the Times editorial address the facts that the non-OECD nations increased their energy use by 66.7% between 2005 and 2021 and that the OECD nations decreased energy use in this same period by -4.3% clearly showing that the non-OECD nations will dominate future energy growth and emissions by even greater margins than existed in 2021. 

Instead, the Times conceals these critical issues by offering the underwhelming statement about China “permitting new coal-fired plants” while completely concealing China and the non-OECD already existing massive growth and dominance in both global energy use and emissions with that dominance to further increase in the future.     

The issues of global energy and emissions that need to be clearly identified and presented for fully open and complete discussions in addressing U.S. and global energy policy actions and decisions that have been ignored and concealed by the Times are further addressed below.    

Table 1 below provides data listed in rank order of world region largest percent of total global energy use with the percent of each world regions energy use obtained from both wind and solar (that represent about 70% of all renewable energy) as listed in the BP Statistical Analysis Report of 2022.

Wind and solar provided only 4.58% of total global energy use in year 2021 after decades of global government mandated use of these costly and unreliable energy resources including the use of trillions of dollars in huge global government driven subsidies. Germany alone has spent at least $800 billion euros on its failed green energy transition campaign. 

The dominant global energy use non-OECD nations (representing 61.37% of total year 2021 global energy use and 66.67% of total global emissions) utilized less wind and solar energy (only 13.14 exajoules) compared to the OECD nations (representing only 38.63% of total year 2021 global total energy) with wind and solar use at just 14.13 exajoules.

In 2021 non-OECD nations used 60% more total energy than the OECD nations but used less wind and solar than OECD. This outcome shows that non-OECD nations clearly lack government mandates and priorities for wind and solar energy.

Reliable and cost-effective fossil fuel energy resources including coal, petroleum and natural gas continued to provide the great majority of world (82.28% in year 2021) and all world regional energy use requirements as presented in the Table 2 below based on the BP year 2021 world energy use statistical analysis. 

Note the non-OECD nations globally dominated 85.34% of fossil fuel use to achieve their year 2021 energy needs. Even globally insignificant and climate alarmist renewable energy mandate focused California used fossil fuels for 70% of its total energy use in year 2020. 

Fossil fuels in year 2021 provided the world with 18 times greater energy than did wind and solar (489.66 exajoules versus 27.27 exajoules) after decades of OECD global government mandates requiring use of costly and unreliable wind and solar even with trillions in global government driven subsidies and mandates.

Table 3 below presents data on World, Selected World Regions, Country, and California showing total energy use for the years 2005 and 2021 with the energy use growth percent from 2005 to 2021 also provided.

The OECD nations (which accounted for only 38.63% of total global energy use in 2021) led by the U.S. and EU experienced energy use declines between the period 2005 and 2021with these nations shrinking energy use by -4.3% during this period (as shown in Table 3). 

The globally dominant energy use non-OECD nations (which accounted for 61.37% of total global energy use in 2021) increased their energy use by +66.7% during this same time period.    

This BP energy data establishes that the non-OECD nations are by far the world’s largest and fastest growing energy users with these nations now completely dominating total global energy, growth, and fuel use both present and future outcomes. 

The non-OECD nations increased fossil fuel use by 113.94 exajoules (311.73 exajoules in 2021 versus 197.79 exajoules in 2005) in the period from 2005 to 2021 with this increased use of fossil fuels being 435% times larger than the entire world’s increased use of wind and solar (27.27 exajoules in 2021 versus 1.08 exajoules in 2005) during year 2021. 

As demonstrated by decades of failed efforts the OECD nations cannot control future global energy, growth, fuel use and emissions outcomes as the BP year 2021 comprehensive global energy statistical analysis data clearly displays.

The Times article fails to identify or deal with any of these significant energy and emissions issues and yet expects the people of the U.S. to:

“From local government to heads of state, officials at all levels should exercise whatever authority they have to dismantle the dangerous machinery of fossil fuels and replace it quickly with clean, renewable energy. Whether it’s accelerating the end of gas-fired plants, oil drilling and internal-combustion cars, or clearing the way for vehicle electrification and wind and solar energy production and transmission, there are thousands of opportunities to avoid the very worst possibilities for our future.”

The Times article hypes the flawed UN 1.5 degree C claim as though this claim is definitive and certain which is not valid. It also asks the people of the U.S. to destroy the country’s energy viability and economy based on its climate alarmism propaganda that conceals and ignores critical and crucial energy and emissions global data. 

Repeating one of the major conclusions noted previously regarding this Times concealed data we note again:

“Nowhere does the Times editorial address the facts that the non-OECD nations increased their energy use by 66.7% between 2005 and 2021 and that the OECD nations decreased energy use in this same period by -4.3% clearly showing that the non-OECD nations will dominate future energy growth and emissions by even greater margins than existed in 2021.”