UKCP Summer Temperature Projections Are Not Supported By The Data

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By Paul Homewood

Let’s have a look at some of the other crazy projections made in UKCP09:

Let’s start with summer temperatures:


England was projected to be between 3 and 4C warmer on average by the 2080s, in comparison with 1961-90.

The actual trend so far is much less dramatic:

The current 30-year average is only 0.72C higher than 1961-90; but more significantly, it is just 0.40C higher than 1931-60.

Given this knowledge it is not credible to postulate that average temperatures will rise by another 3C or more in the next 60 years, particularly since temperatures in the hottest of summers do not appear to be increasing.

Even if every summer in the 2080s was as hot as last year, the long term average would still only be 2C higher than 1961-90.

Yet UKCP09 is still used as the basis for climate projections, and similar nonsense numbers are coming out of the most recent set of projections in UKCP18.

Are these just academic matters? No, because as UKCP18 makes clear, these projections are at the heart of government policy and planning:

It is time that DEFRA dropped the make-believe, corrupt advice from the Met Office, and employed a team of independent experts to advise them who are not tainted by self interest.