From Watts Up With That?
By Jeff Id
Observation is the key to scientific study. When you observe that a released apple falls to the ground, this observation has more meaning than any theory of spontaneous levitation that ever existed. Such observations have led us to recognize and attempt to quantify the laws of physics in the forms of mathematical equations. These equations are not really perfect reflections of reality, but rather are our best match of understanding to observation. I will give an unquestioned and well observed effect that I think most people can understand.
Two cars crashing head on, each going 30 mph. Car 1 is moving at speed v (30mph), car 2 is moving head on, at speed u (30mph).
Speed of closure between two cars (S) = v + u which is 30 +30 = 60 mph of closure speed.
In the early 1900’s relativity was discovered and it was found that at very high velocities, the Galilean physics did not match observation. This caused a change in the expression of physics, resulting in a different (looking) equation.
This equation looks different and at first glance appears over-complicated. It is not. S in this equation is the closure rate between cars based on current physics, rather than the S of the olden days. Then you realize, the speed of light squared, c^2 is a really really huge number and it is at the bottom of the equation. What makes this interesting is that when v times u (vu at the bottom of the equation), is usually very small compared to the speed of light squared c^2 (the vu/c^2 in equation is effectively a zero at 30 miles per hour) and the equation actually converges to the Galilean standard of previous observation.
S = v + u / (1+0) = v + u
So the result is that relativistic equations of physics, now MATCH a wider range of OBSERVATION. Both the low speed, two cars at 30 miles per hour, and the high speed 80% of the speed of light match within our ability to observe. The Galilean equation is imperfect and fails to represent the high speed observations – only.
In much of science (not most anymore), observation is the unpolluted king of the research department. However, money is the thing which pays for the observation. This causes problems much more often than most people will ever realize (my unsolicited but free opinion).
A long time ago now, “scientists” being well paid for global warming research, intentionally switched the narrative from Global Warming to Climate Change. The reason for this is political, but from a scientific standpoint, it had a first level of theoretical justification. The energy movement in the climate system is what drives the variation in weather patterns. If you have more energy moving in the system, it is perfectly rational and even necessary to conclude with absolute certainty, that you will see more extreme weather patterns. Hurricanes must become stronger because they are heat pumps moving heat from the ocean to upper layers of the atmosphere. More heat equals bigger hurricanes. Rain will become more common as the atmosphere has more warmth allowing more differential. However, science knows that measurements are imperfect as there is always noise in the data – and the size of the expected signal matters.
More telling, is that you can observe the truth of those statements on other planets. Jupiter’s red-spot is large and continuous because it is moving a tremendous amount of heat from the lower atmosphere to the upper. The wind speeds and size are beyond any form of observation we will ever see on Earth and this is a known fact. Venus is hot enough at its surface to melt solder, this is caused in huge part by its thick CO2 atmosphere. These are real world examples (some pun intended), but they cannot be denied as they are OBSERVATION.
But all science, including “Climate Science™“, is all about math, and it suffers from the same problems as Galilean velocity equations — size actually matters.
Global warming is real:
Global warming is an effect caused by a radiative emission from a visual spectrum (sunlight) being absorbed into the surface of Earth and then a perfectly equal amount of energy being re-emitted back to space at much longer wavelengths. In generalities, this is characterized by the also imperfect Planck blackbody equations. There is literally zero scientific controversy about global warming at this level. Zero is a small number. Again, a first level science review proves beyond a doubt that the global warming effect is real and completely uncontroversial.
Again, size matters. Tay appension people!!! You still with me?
If the car is not traveling well over 1000 Miles per SECOND (pretty fast), Galileo’s equations are perfectly correct within our ability to observe velocity. If you are bored, you can figure out that the relativistic equation results equal Galilean equation results to a large number of significant figures. Therefore, relativistic equations are correct and it is impossible to say Galilean equations are wrong. After all, we all used the same Galilean equations to get through high school.
What I’m saying is that these two different equations reduce to the same number through most of human observation, because SIZE MATTERS in science.
So… bullet points for us chicken brain humans
- Global warming is unquestionably real
- Climate change also exists
- Size matters
Time for a couple of graphs. It is science after all.
The below graph is from Dr. Roy Spencer’s fantastic blog – linked here and on the right.
The rate of “Global Warming” as measured by satellites in the lower part of the atmosphere. These values are basically unpolluted by ground effect that surface stations include but much more importantly, they include the bulk of the heat energy in the gaseous atmosphere. This means that global warming since 1979 is visually about 0.5 degrees Celsius. We humans don’t have any scientific idea how much of that is caused by CO2.
In total, this is a very SMALL amount of warming.
Much smaller than any climate models predicted, and the graph above is actually humanities best data on atmospheric temperature.
This next graph compares OBSERVATION of temperature changes to climate models of temperature changes as predicted. The blue bar on the left is observation.
As we all can now OBSERVE, the key to all of Real Climate™ observation, are lower than all of climate models. ALL of the climate models have predicted more warming than we observe. What folks don’t know, is that the HIGHER model trends are the ones being politically represented as the CORRECT models and the LOWER models on the left side of the graph above are typically the ones being represented as models if we do something to fix the alleged, but as yet UNOBSERVED, climate “problem”.
Now, I have repeatedly stated with links and evidence from government and even my own science, the following equally true OBSERVED facts:
No trend in hurricanes
No trend in drought
No trend in rain
No the fish are not shrinking
No butterflies are going extinct
Polar bears are doing great
Antarctic ice is not shrinking away
Sea level rise is a dead straight line for 150 years
Penguins are doing great too.
So the chicken-brain in the human body says, JEFF, you just told me this stuff was real. I ALSO TOLD YOU THAT IN SCIENCE, —– SIZE MATTERS.
Power is the flow of energy, horsepower, Watts — energy per time.
Energy is Joules, BTU’s.
A little arcane for this post but many here understand what I wrote.
Energy is what you get when the power of sunlight is temporally retarded by the increased global warming effect of carbon dioxide. Try again? Global warming energy is a buildup of temperature when the sunlight energy takes a smidge longer to escape to space.
The real scientific question then becomes, how much more heat buildup can we expect with the change in CO2 and what would that do to our weather patterns. How big will hurricanes be? How bad will droughts be? How hot will we get.
Unfortunately for the sandwich board, government funded, doom sooth, end-of-the-world class, the answer is very simple and very understandable. Unfortunately for you, it comes in the form of a graph.
The Earth’s emission temperature is something close to 285 degrees Kelvin. Space is very close to zero, like 3 degrees kelvin. We should use Kelvin when determining how much CHANGE in the flow of energy will occur, with absolute zero (no molecular temperature) being equal to zero Kevlin. The Kelvin scale doesn’t use negative numbers (don’t get all techie on this).
Now the ORANGE block on the bar on the left is NOT what global warming is. Global warming is the Gray bar – that you cannot see – on top of the orange bar on the left.
Size matters- Don’t know if I’ve mentioned that.
The CO2 warming forcing us to use untenable electric vehicles and endless global regulation is NOT visible on this graph. The gray bar you cannot see is also the reason that we cannot measure ANY change in weather patterns on earth caused by human based global warming. Like the relativistic effect of a 30mph car crash, global warming is simply way too small to cause big changes in weather, even when exaggerated by climate models.
It is also why we never will measure change the following items caused by CO2:
Sea level rise
Per OBSERVATION, and per the basic first-level physics of Climate science, the effect is TOO SMALL to cause harm or even a microscopically observable change in most of the values I’ve written. FOREVER. Keep in mind, that however small global warming is, it is real and that scientific fact does not ever change.
Final point I need to make is that when CO2 based warming occurs in the atmosphere, it is a well-mixed phenomenon. Imagine over 10 years trying to have a measurable change in the temperature difference between Germany and France caused by a super small change in energy movement as represented in the Kelvin graph above. It boggles the mind that “Climate Science™” would even suggest such a thing, but that is what the fake-news “Climate Change” term is meant to express. Extremes of weather caused by the mobility of the extra energy — the gray bar that nobody can actually see in the graph above.
And there it is:
Climate change is a complete, government funded HOAX of the greatest magnitude of almost any scientific hoax AND Global warming is very real, and very small. This is a scientific FACT, proven by all available observations of science.
It is also embarrassingly obvious. Humanity needs to improve intellectually or we will never achieve the best of our imagination.