Fritz Vahrenholt: Global warming will take a break

From Klimanachrichten Redakteur

Dear Sir or Madam,

The unusually mild weather at the turn of the year in Central Europe strengthens some in this country in the view that CO2-related global warming is in full swing. Globally – and that’s all that matters – temperatures are moving in a different direction.

If one forms the average of recent years, the global temperature has been constant for 8 years and 4 months.

In December, the deviation of the global temperature from the 30-year average of satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama (UAH) fell again, to 0.05 degrees Celsius. (see graphic above).

Although there is a long-term temperature increase until 2015. But it has averaged only 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade since 1979. But it gets even better: the latest scientific studies show that Europe will go slightly downhill for 15-20 years.

Study in “Nature”: North Atlantic cools down 

It is climate science heavyweights who recently caused a stir in the Nature Journal “climate and atmospheric science”.

Katja Matthes, Director of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Johann Jungclaus from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and Nour-Eddine Omrani from the Norwegian Bjerknes centre for climate research published a study that shows that we are facing a weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a cooling of the North Atlantic and the associated global temperature development as between 1950 and 1970 ( according to the authors in of their summary).

The graph shows the decline in temperatures in the North Atlantic until 2040. Because of the global warming trend, temperatures do not fall back to the levels of the years 1950 to 1970, explains one of the authors, Eddine Omrani. According to Omrani, the expected warming pause gives us time to work out technical, political and economic solutions before the next warming phase, which will regain the upper hand around 2050.

Why is there no reporting on the coming slowdown in Europe? 

It is astonishing that so far not a single German daily newspaper has reported on this encouraging message.

On the other hand, the apocalyptic madness of the “last generation” financed with American foundation money is given ample space and benevolent judges.

Hardly anyone questions the false narrative of “glue”. Anyone who suppresses such news about an impending slowdown is complicit in the politically induced destruction of our community.

What did Robert Habeck say recently in Qatar?

He will need natural gas in the next few years, but in 7 years he will no longer need it, as Germany will then phase out gas anyway.

Why does he want to get out if it will not get warmer in Europe in the next 20 years, but rather colder?

Don’t we need even more gas when we cool down than we do today?

The publication of the climate researchers from Kiel, Hamburg, Bergen, Venice and Houston brings us another important insight.

The warming of the years 1980 to 2015 was significantly influenced by the warm phase of the Atlantic.

We can estimate that a significant part of the warming is attributable to this natural cycle.

However, this period is used, among other things, to make temperature forecasts into the future.

However, the models add the natural warming contribution to the CO2 effect.

This incorrectly calculated, higher CO2 effect will be extrapolated into the future. Models that do not take into account the natural cyclical influences – and the models cannot yet do so – thus come to much too strong warming forecasts.

It should not go unmentioned that there are a large number of publications (such as this one, in which Matthes and Omrani were involved, Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability) that consider a coupling of the strength of the solar cycles with the North Atlantic oscillation to be likely.

The last solar cycle from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest in 100 years. The current cycle has been just as weak so far. The one- dimensionality of the climate and energy debate, which culminates in CO2 emissions alone determining our climate, is frightening.

Congress in Hamburg

On 19.1.2023 the congress “Save our industry” will take place at the Hotel Elysee in Hamburg. Participants include Michael Shellenberger, Prof. Patzelt, Prof. Koch, Dr. Pillkahn, Prof. Mayer, Roland Tichy and myself. The event can be found here.

Unfortunately, it is already fully booked two weeks after the announcement; more are planned. However, the Hamburg event can be followed here.

In addition, I would like to point out that my new book “The Great Energy Crisis – and How We Can Overcome It” will be published on 17 February. The book will be presented at a press conference at the German Press Club in Berlin together with Otto Schily, former Federal Minister. The book has 207 pages and costs 22 €. The book is published by LangenMüller Verlag.

With best wishes
Fritz Vahrenholt