Oceans, not Co2 more likely the big Kahuna of Climate

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By Joe Bastardi 

Here are the SST’s in 1984

contrast that to the SSTs now

and so the temperatures now

First of all, does anyone rationally believe that if the oceans had not warmed the earth would have?

Second, notice where the lion’s share of the warming is: the polar regions.

Let’s take a look at arctic temperatures

the vast majority of the warming is coming in the colder months. Now why would that be? (it is not warming at all in the summer).

If we look at the correlation between water vapor and temperature we see why. It takes very tiny amounts of water vapor to correlate to higher temperatures where its very cold and dry

So it stands to reason a warming ocean puts more water vapor into the air and the changes would be seen where it is coldest and driest. But there is no summer rise because not enough has been put into the air to correlate to rises around 32F. ( see the chart). That the  global step-ups correlate wonderfully to  the powerful el Ninos adds more evidence that its the oceans controlling the shooting match

So question number one.  Would the earth be warming if the oceans were not warming?  Perhaps but only very very slightly which is what I think Co2’s contribution is.

Question number 2. What is causing what is dramatic warming of a body that is very slow to change  It can’t be the argument that the air is not cooling as much so the oceans are warming rapidly.  It is much more likely that oceanic warming is causing the problem. IF SO IT IS A NATURAL OCCURRENCE, THAT DEMANDS ADAPTATION, NOT ECONOMIC AND FREEDOM SUICIDE.

I have written previously about my strong suspicion its release of heat through geothermal sources, much of it underwater volcanoes. that is doing this. That the warmth when it maxes out shows up in the Pacific ring of Fire like now when there is a La Nina is a clue

Or if a super nino like 1997 or  2015  goes off, it is near where major volcanic activity is occurring off South America

All these cause atmospheric reactions that try to counter but must deal with the overall input of extra water vapor. That the chart clearly shows step-up functions in response to the Super Ninos means the linkage is clear.  Because that linkage is clear, it SHOULD IMMEDIATELY RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT CO2 ATTRIBUTION AND THE WHOLE MISSIVE THAT WORLD LEADERS ARE PUSHING..

You may say, where is your “proof” on the geothermal input?   I have no proof I have suspicions based on close to 50 years now in the field and one of the most experienced global long-range forecasters today.  When you love something, you try to find out how it ticks.  The fact is we know laughingly little about the oceans.  I may not have proof that it is, but man-driven climate change activists have no proof it isn’t since they won’t look or simply dismiss it.  This is baffling since so much money is dumped into a so-called settled science.  So I have no proof. I can look at the past vs the present and ask what does or does not make sense.  What makes sense to me is that oceanic warming is driving this train.  So the argument would have to be that co2 input from man is driving the warming, That assumption would be made with precious little knowledge of what is going on in the oceans.  It’s Wizard of Oz science, asking the observer to pay no attention to what may really be the source of the great and powerful Oz.

Remember if it is man, this would be the first time we have entered a climate optimum ( not an emergency) that we created ourselves. ( sarc). Fact is the earth has had bigger variations without me screwing it up.

But what I am suggesting is threatening to those driving this train.  As Oswald Chambers said “. A fanatic is one who entrenches himself in invincible ignorance”.  Dont bother looking at anything that can possibly cause you to question whatever authority you think you have.   If you stop and think about whole lives and social order ideas that are built around the missive we have to STOP the progress of man, to ensure man can still progress. Someone questioning that and observing what looks to be intuitive is likely to become the Tony Bobulinski of climate and weather ( Since we both wrestled at Penn State, perhaps that is a link) Only I don’t have the money to afford bodyguards.

My favorite proverb comes to mind as a call to action for people wishing to search beyond what they are told. Proverbs  25:2.  “It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, to search the matter out the glory of Kings”.   It seems to me that we have the entire climate and weather community not even wishing to look at what is concealed. And yet it is not really concealed at all. How are the oceans warming so fast?   If you are blaming the warming of the air when you can clearly look at the linkage between water vapor and air and know there is no such link for co2, How can you even think that it is mainly co2 despite its radiative abilities in what are already saturated bands, causing all this?

1) Do you believe if the oceans were as cold as 40 years, ago, the air would have warmed this much?

2)What is warming the ocean?  I do not believe it’s the air above, but the ocean that is warming the air.

3) Which is more concealed as far as the amount of research and knowledge, what is going on in the air, or what is going on in the ocean?

4) Why isn’t there research into that, and in fact focused attention? If you understand the atmosphere can not stray far from what the ocean dictates and the oceans have so much of the energy of the system, why are we chasing the so-called known?

It is up to people that do understand science is the search for the unknown, not a consensus of what is known, to come forward.

Probably won’t happen.  If my suspicions are even close to having merit, its a kill shot into the heart of the phony climate war

Notes and asides. ( comment about rest of winter)

The current SST

is much like 2013 2014

The so-called Polar Vortex came through Jan 6-8, but after it left it warmed dramatically for about 10 days, then winter really got down to business later Jan into March

If we take the displacement this year to Dec 22-24 ( which if you were. following us you saw the dissection from late November on how this would evolve) we find a similar 10 day warm up  in response,  I suspect like 2014 winter is coming back quite strong mid-Jan into Mid March,  It will be interesting to see how close those linkages are.


  • Joe BastardiJoe Bastardi
  • Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting.
  • He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore.
  • His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com