By Paul Homewood
The Atlantic hurricane season has now officially ended.
On a global basis we have only a few decades of consistent and reliable data for hurricanes. [NB: Hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones generically. In the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, they are named as hurricanes. In other regions they are labelled as typhoons and cyclones. For simplicity’s sake, I will refer to them as hurricanes in this post]
However, hurricanes which have made landfall on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts have been well recorded since the middle of the 19thC, although some area such as Florida and Texas were still sparsely populated until the 1880s meaning some may still have been missed until then.
For years scientists at the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD) have been carefully compiling and re-analysing the wealth of records available in the past, and their data clearly shows that there are no long-term trends in the frequency of hurricanes, or major hurricanes (Cat 3 and over):
Data on the intensity of hurricanes, i.e., atmospheric pressure, also fails to reveal any increasing trend:
According to the data however, there has been a noticeable increase in hurricane frequency in the Atlantic Ocean in the last three decades:
However, as HRD point out, many storms in the middle of the Atlantic were simply never spotted before the satellite era:
The Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT) extends back to 1851. However, because tropical storms and hurricanes spend much of their lifetime over the open ocean (some never hitting land) many systems were “missed” during the 19th and early 20th Centuries (Vecchi and Knutson 2008). Starting in 1944, systematic aircraft reconnaissance was commenced for monitoring both tropical cyclones and disturbances that had the potential to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. This did provide much improved monitoring, but still about half of the Atlantic basin was not covered (Sheets 1990). Beginning in 1966, daily satellite imagery became available at the National Hurricane Center, and thus statistics from this time forward are most complete (McAdie et al. 2009). For hurricanes striking the USA Atlantic and Gulf coasts, one can go back further in time with relatively reliable counts of systems because enough people have lived along coastlines since 1900.
All of this is really so self-evident that I should not have to mention it. Yet year after year, the climate fraudsters deliberately ignore this fact, and claim that hurricanes are actually becoming more common.
A comparison between 1922 and 2022 rather says it all:
2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
In 1922 there were five tropical storms (incl three hurricanes) officially declared, compared to fourteen this year (eight hurricanes). But in 1922, all five were close to land, and thus easily spotted. This year by contrast most of the storms were out in the middle of the ocean.
Did we never get hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic in the past? Of course not.
When the data is corrected for these missing hurricanes, research shows that these false trends disappear:
You may have noted a dip in hurricane frequency in the 1970s and 80s. The recovery in hurricane numbers since then is often wheeled out by the BBC as “proof that global warming is making hurricanes worse”. In fact, the decline and recovery is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the natural ocean cycle which is known to have been occurring for at least the last 1000 years. During the cold phase, hurricanes tend to be less frequent and severe, as NOAA explain:
Interestingly there have been attempts recently, notably in IPCC reports, to link the 1970s decline to aerosol pollution. However, this ignores the fact that the AMO is a known cycle, and the hurricane record shows similar AMO related ups and downs before 1970.
Either way, of course, the increase in hurricane frequency since 1995 has nothing to do with global warming and is not part of any long-term trend.
Finally, a quick look at global hurricane trends, courtesy of Ryan Maue:
Bear in mind these are 12-month running totals, so are relevant for comparison purposes at any time in the year.
Total for both all hurricanes and major hurricanes are close to the lowest on record.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
December 4, 2022