Influence of solar activity much greater than previously thought?

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Article by Dr. Ludger Laurenz

Hypothesis: New insights into solar activity, published in 2021 (1), enable new, easy-to-use practising method of demonstrating the link between fluctuating Solar activity and weather trends in individual months and years. With this Methods are deep traces of the 22-year magnetic activity cycle of the Sun (Hale cycle) detectable in weather trends.

The observations in this article on the influence of the Hale cycle on weather trends are to be understood as an incentive for climate and atmospheric researchers to review the Hale thesis on the solar influence on the weather of individual years and months and to use it for multi-year and decadal long-term forecasts.

New insight into Solar activity:

The magnetic solar cycle (Hale cycle) lasts about 22 years. This cycle is detectable in numerous solar physical measurement data. The starting years of the respective cycles have only been known since 2021:

Figure 1: Time course of the approximately 22-year-olds Hale cycles of the Sun since 1870 based on solar physical measurement results with the starting years 1881, 1903, 1926, 1946, 1968, 1988, 2011 based on S. C. Chapman et al. 2021 (s.1, Figure 5)

With the Change from one Hale cycle to the next the sun starts within a few weeks a new activity program that takes place approximately every 22 years after The same pattern is repeated. Every single month and every single year of the The 22-year cycle is characterised by a specific pattern of activity based on the Earth’s atmosphere.

The new discovered sundial shows that solar activity after a much more accurate Schedule begins and ends when considering Solar observations in the conventional way – linearly plotted over time – would be possible.

Solar cycle for low-precipitation October 2022 in Northern Germany?

The answer arises when looking for Hale traces in weather data with the starting years of the Hale cycles. For this purpose, approximately 22-year periods of weather data, starting with the start year of the individual Hale cycles, are stacked on top of each other. This stacking takes place in the following figure with the October precipitation sum of Lower Saxony available since 1881:

Figure 2: October precipitation sum of Lower Saxony since 1881 in 7 Hale cycles of the sun, stacked on top of each other

The picture shows phases with chaotic, but also with similar Curves, as in the areas marked in yellow. The most pronounced is the similarity of the Curves in the cycle years 7, 8 and 9. Not accidentally, but solar. This is probably due to the similarity of the curves also apply in the other yellow-marked time zones.

The year 2022 belongs to cycle year 12. As in all other cycles since 1881, the precipitation total in 2022 is below the average, an indication indicates that there is probably an external force for this curve is responsible. In the current cycle started in 2011 with the red dashed line, the solar influence is particularly pronounced. One Coincidence for this curve can also be demanding without the application of statistical methods are practically excluded.

If the curve is not random, but by the Sun activity variation in the context of the 22-year Hale cycle is affected, the link between fluctuating solar activity and weather trends or climate changes are considerably more important than hitherto.

That the Hale find in the October rainfall total of Lower Saxony no “wood pigeon” and here also no “cherry-picking” is to be carried out with the next illustrations (as in earlier blog posts of the author inKALTESONNE.DE (4) and a scientific publication in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (5)).

Solar activity for different Rainfall totals of recent years in Kleve (NRW) responsible?

To answer the above question, the approximately 22-year periods of the June precipitation sum of Kleve in NRW since 1881 are stacked on top of each other with the start year of the individual Hale cycles. Kleve is located on the border with the Netherlands. Northwest Germany and the Benelux countries are a region in which solar influence on precipitation data can be detected particularly frequently and significantly in many places and regions.

Figure: June precipitation total of Kleve since 1881 in 7 Hale cycles of the Sun, stacked on top of each other

This picture also shows phases with chaotic, but also with similar Curve as in the area marked in yellow. The most pronounced is the similarity of the Curve curve in the cycle years 6 to 14. Curve not randomly, but by an external force such as solar activity influenced.

In 2022, in cycle year 12, the rainfall sum has rather coincidentally the mean of the other cycles. However, if the previous 6 years of 2016 to 2021 included with the red dashed line, pushes again gives the impression that solar activity influences the course of the curve. One Coincidence for the rectified curve can also be practical here be excluded.

Solar activity for variation the amount of rain worldwide?

With the start years of the Hale cycles, which have been known since 2021, traces of the Hale cycle can be searched for in weather data worldwide. For example, the solar influence can also be detected in the annual rainfall total in Iowa, see the following figure:

Figure 3: Annual precipitation total of Iowa/West Central since 1903 in 6 Hale cycles of the Sun, stacked on top of each other

As in the entire Midwest of the USA, the solar influence is evident particularly pronounced in cycle years 2 to 7. In cycle year 2, the Annual rainfall sum reliable in all cycles since 1903 in the range of 600 to 750 mm, in cycle year 6 equally reliable between 900 and 1100 mm. For the Difference between cycle years 2 and 6 may be due to the curve Here, too, a coincidence can be ruled out without statistical verification. The Variation of annual precipitation sum in the first years of the cycle is close linked to the also solar-influenced course of the temperature of the Water surface in the tropical Pacific, with the ENSO dynamics and the ONI index.

How can Fluctuations in solar activity in the context of the Hale cycle so immediate and short-term to weather trends?

The idea that solar activity is responsible for the weather character individual months such as the low rainfall in October 2022 in Northern Germany could be responsible, is likely to be initially among many readers, but also cause scientists to reject and shake their heads. “This is why the Fluctuation of solar activity far too low”.

However, recent publications from the last two years show that the link between solar activity described in this paper and Weather trends of individual months or years can be explained physically can: “New support for the direct influence of solar activity on the circulation in the lower atmosphere comes through the “winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis”. The hypothesis describes how changes in the Solar activity the climate despite its small energy changes can have a profound impact.” (2)

Another support for the spontaneous transmission of solar activity on the atmosphere came a few months ago from Svetlana Veretenenko, Ioffe Institute, St. Petersburg (3). Veretenenkos Work is an important step towards proving the solar effect on global atmospheric circulation, is a major breakthrough in our Understanding natural climate change and the role of the sun.

The recently published paper provides important evidence for the Effects of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation by their influence on the polar vortex. The solar influence is reflected in the Pressure distribution of individual months and years.

Link between Hale cycle of the sun and weather trends enables decadal long-term forecasts

When certain weather trends change in the rhythm of the approximately 22-year-old. Hale cycle have been repeated in every cycle over the past 140 years, as shown in described in this contribution to rain totals, the influence of the Hale cycle can also be used for multi-year or decadal forecasts.

With today’s knowledge about the interaction of the sun during the Hale cycle with weather trends could have been predicted as early as 2011, that October 2022 in northern Germany is likely to be low in precipitation or that 2018, a cycle year 8, will affect Germany with very high Probability of a dry-hot summer.

For long-term forecasts beyond the next 10 years, the knowledge over the year of the beginning of the next Hale cycle. First forecasts call the year 2031: “From the extrapolation of observations of the distribution of the EUV brightness points of the Sun, we can already estimate that the The starting year for the next Hale cycle will be the end of 2031” (1). If that is actually the case is highly likely to occur in the Midwest of the USA in the year 2032 with below-average and 2036 with extremely high annual precipitation total can be calculated. In Germany, 2038 will face heat and drought similar to 2018 the program.

The decadal long-term forecast of weather trends based on monthly and annual values are of great economic importance, especially for the national and global food production and renewable energy production, but also for many other sectors of the economy, even for the private sector. Vacation.

Sources:

1-S. C. Chapman, S. W. McIntosh, R. J. Leamon, and N. W. Watkins 2021: The Sun’s Magnetic (Hale) Cycle and 27 Day Recurrences in the aa Geomagnetic Index. The Astrophysical Journal,Volume 917, Number 2

2-Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation, Posted on October 20, 2022, by curryja, by Javier Vinós

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

3-Svetlana Veretenenko, 2022: Stratospheric Polar Vortex as an Important Link between the Lower Atmosphere Circulation and Solar Activity, DOI: 10.3390/atmos13071132

4-Laurenz, L. 2021: Significant influence of Solar activity on the winter temperature in the polar night of Scandinavia, from Cold sun,https://kaltesonne.de/signifikanter-einfluss-der-sonnenaktivitaet-auf-die-wintertemperatur-in-der-polarnacht-von-skandinavien/

5-Laurenz L, Lüdecke H-J and Lüning S (2019), Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 185 29–42,doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012