Hey Joe! How’s That “Incredible Transition” Going for Ya?

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Guest “Incredible Transition” my @$$!” by David Middleton

Does he even know what the initials EIA stand for? He wouldn’t sound nearly so moronic if he occasionally checked with the Energy Information Administration…

JULY 1, 2022

Fossil fuel sources accounted for 79% of U.S. consumption of primary energy in 2021

Fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—accounted for 79% of the 97 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of primary energy consumption in the United States during 2021. About 21% of U.S. primary energy consumption in 2021 came from fuel sources other than fossil fuels, such as renewables and nuclear, according to data in our Monthly Energy Review.

The 4-quad increase in U.S. primary energy consumption last year was the largest annual increase on record and was mostly attributable to a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels of activity. The increase in 2021 follows a 7-quad decrease in 2020, which was the largest annual decrease on record.

Consumption of renewable energy in the United States increased slightly from 11.5 quads in 2020 to a record of 12.2 quads in 2021. Increased use of renewables for electricity generation, including wind and solar energy, was partially offset by a decline in hydroelectricity generation. U.S. nuclear energy consumption totaled 8.2 quads in 2020, the lowest level since 2012.

Petroleum has been the most-consumed primary energy source in the United States since surpassing coal in 1950. Consumption of petroleum in the United States remains less than its 2005 peak, totaling 35 quads in 2021. U.S. natural gas consumption totaled 31.3 quads in 2021, a slight decline from the previous year.

U.S. coal consumption increased to 10.5 quads in 2021, marking the first annual increase in U.S. coal consumption since 2013. U.S. coal consumption has fallen by more than half since its peak in 2005. Reduced coal-fired electricity generation has driven much of this decline.

Our Monthly Energy Review’s pre-1949 estimates of U.S. energy use are based on two sources: Sam Schurr and Bruce Netschert’s Energy in the American Economy, 1850–1975: Its History and Prospects and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Circular No. 641, Fuel Wood Used in the United States 1630–1930.

Appendix D of our Monthly Energy Review compiles these estimates of U.S. energy consumption in 10-year increments from 1635 through 1845 and 5-year increments from 1845 through 1945. Data for 1949 through the present day are available in the latest Monthly Energy Review.

Principal contributor: Owen Comstock

Tags: consumption/demand, coal, natural gas, renewables, wind, wood, liquid fuels, hydroelectric, oil/petroleum, biofuels

U.S. Energy Information Administration
Today in Energy would like to wish you a happy Fourth of July. New articles will resume on Monday, July 11.

Solar power? Oh where, oh where art thou?

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Hiding in the “all other renewables” me thinks.

There won’t be an energy transition because there never has been one

We’ve never transitioned from one form of energy to another; we just pile new sources on top of the old sources and use them more efficiently, with less impact on the environment. We burn almost as much biomass now as we did when we started burning coal; we just no longer rely on whale oil as a major component of that biomass.

Bjorn Lomborg, LinkedIn

But, but, but… The future! Because climate change!

The EIA’s 2021 International Energy Outlook is also ignoring “Because climate change!”…

“Renewables” includes hydroelectric. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)
Note: Petroleum and other liquids includes biofuels

OCTOBER 6, 2021
EIA projects accelerating renewable consumption and steady liquid fuels growth to 2050

Today we released our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021). In the IEO2021 Reference case, which assumes current laws and regulations, we project that strong economic growth and growing populations will drive increases in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption through 2050. Much of the increase in energy consumption will be met with liquid fuels and renewable energy sources. Natural gas- and coal-fired generation technologies as well as the emerging use of batteries will also prompt increased consumption.

Some key findings of IEO2021 include:

If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.
The industrial and transportation sectors will largely drive the increase in energy consumption. Electric vehicle sales will grow through 2050, causing the internal combustion engine fleet to peak in 2023 for countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and in 2038 globally. Despite this projected growth in electric vehicle sales, the continued growth in energy consumption will cause global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to rise through 2050 according to our IEO2021 Reference case.

[…]

Principal contributor: Michelle Bowman

EIA

They also forecast that fossil fuels will continue to be the world’s dominant source of primary energy for many decades to come…

Previous EIA graph plotted as a stacked area chart.

The problem with the future will always be…

The future’s uncertain and the end is always near…

Jim Morrison, The Doors, Roadhouse Blues, 1970

How about some Morrison Hotel?

The future’s uncertain and the end is always near…

Energy Transition Follies: ERCOT Edition

Jul 10, 2022

ERCOT Issues Conservation Appeal to Texans and Texas Businesses

Appeal Effective Monday, July 11, 2022

AUSTIN, TX, July 10, 2022 – With extreme hot weather driving record power demand across Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is issuing a Conservation Appeal, asking Texans and Texas businesses to voluntarily conserve electricity, Monday, July 11 between 2-8 p.m. ERCOT also issued a Watch for a projected reserve capacity shortage from 2-8 p.m. At this time, no system-wide outages are expected.

Conservation is a reliability tool ERCOT has deployed more than four dozen times since 2008 to successfully manage grid operations. This notification is issued when projected reserves may fall below 2300 MW for 30 minutes or more.

ERCOT encourages all electric customers to visit the Public Utility Commission’s (PUC) Power to Save or their electric provider’s websites to get important conservation tips. According to the PUC, ways to reduce electricity use during peak times include turning up your thermostat a degree or two, if comfortable, and postponing running major appliances or pool pumps during afternoon peak hours.

ERCOT continues to use all tools available to manage the grid effectively and reliably, including using reserve power and calling upon large electric customers who have volunteered to lower their energy use.

ERCOT emphasizes that the call for conservation is limited to the hours of 2-8 p.m.

Factors driving the need for this important action by customers:

● Record high electric demand. The heat wave that has settled on Texas and much of the central United States is driving increased electric use. Other grid operators are operating under similar conservative operations programs as ERCOT due to the heatwave.

● Low wind. While solar power is generally reaching near full generation capacity, wind generation is currently generating significantly less than what it historically generated in this time period. Current projections show wind generation coming in less than 10 percent of its capacity.

Under current projected scenarios, performance of the generation fleet Monday is:

Installed CapacityMonday (7/11) Tightest Hour (2-3 p.m.)Percentage of Installed Capacity Available at Tightest Hour
Dispatchable80,08367,91385%
Wind35,1622,6988%
Solar11,7879,55781%

Total forecasted demand is 79,671 MW.

How to track electricity demand

● View daily peak demand forecast, current load, and available generation at http://www.ercot.com.

● Follow ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and Facebook (Electric Reliability Council of Texas).

● Sign up for the ERCOT mobile app (available for download at the Apple App Store and Google Play).

● Subscribe to the EmergencyAlerts list on http://lists.ercot.com.

Consumer assistance

Public Utility Commission of Texas Hotline – 1-888-782-8477

-end-

ERCOT

If there are brownouts this afternoon… What are the odds that the media and Democrats (redundant, I know) will try to pin it on natural gas?

Supply and Demand
Supply and Demand is a graphical representation of the ERCOT system’s current power supply and demand using Real-Time data, as well as projected power supply and demand from hourly forecasts.
Last Updated: Jul 11, 2022 14:20 CT

The graph’s solid purple line represents the historical committed capacity (the amount of power that was available from on-line generating units). The graph’s turquoise line represents the historical system demand (the amount of power used). The purple shaded portion represents the amount of quick start capacity forecasted to be available in the near future. Quick start capacity is provided by generating units that can come on-line within 10 minutes of receiving ERCOT notice. These generating units are tested to ensure their quick start capability. The dotted turquoise line represents the forecasted future demand. These values are all provided in megawatts (MW).

Although supply should meet demand, the capacity displayed during each interval includes reserve power supplies. ERCOT procures reserves, which may be needed in case of sudden changes in operating conditions in order to help maintain reliability. For instance, reserves may be needed in an unexpected generation outage. Available capacity amounts are based on generating units’ Current Operating Plans and can change over time due to variations in start-up times among generating units. When the actual demand crosses into these reserves, it indicates that ERCOT may need to bring all available generation on-line and notify consumers that conservation is needed.

ERCOT

It could be an interesting afternoon in Texas. Or not…

In the meantime…

via Watts Up With That?

July 11, 2022