I cry fowl. This did ruffle my feathers. So I am going to show some of this paper, gobble up what it says and then keep you abreast of the counters.
Its Another non verifiable gem and this stretches the imagination This comes out, after Long Island, which was hit by a hurricane once every 6.5 years between 1938 and 1991, has gone 30 years now without a hurricane hit, But don’t let that deter you
The Opening paragraph
WASHINGTON—By the late 21st century, northeastern U.S. cities will see worsening hurricane outcomes, with storms arriving more quickly but slowing down once they’ve made landfall. As storms linger longer over the East Coast, they will cause greater damage along the heavily populated corridor, according to a new study.
First of all, more people more damage. So that has nothing to do with more storms
Second “WILL SEE WORSENING HURRICANES”
How do you know that? By the late 21st century.? So you can make a forecast that almost no one alive today will remember
” WILL SEE”. SO IS THIS MODEL A GOD AND THESE PEOPLE THIS GOD’S PROPHETS?
Now this gem
In the new study, a climate scientist ( named removed as I dont believe in personal attacks) at Rowan University analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms. To assess likely storm outcomes in the future, they compared where storms formed, how fast they moved and where they ended from the pre-industrial period through the end of the 21st century.
Seriously. COMPUTER MODELS? HOW MANY YEARS OF ACTUAL HURRICANE FORECASTING DO THESE PEOPLE HAVE? How can you lump storms that have happened, WITH STORMS THRU THE END OF THE 21S CENTURY THAT HAVE NOT HAPPENED YET? What the heck is that? Who does that, lump virtual events in with actual events as if they are both the same? And this is in the AGU publication. Seriously?
What else do we have?
“The researchers found that future East Coast hurricanes will likely cause greater damage than storms of the past. The research predicted that a greater number of future hurricanes will form near the East Coast, and those storms will reach the Northeast corridor more quickly. The simulated storms slow to a crawl as they approach the East Coast, allowing them to produce more wind, rain, floods, and related damage in the Northeast region. The longest-lived tropical storms are predicted to be twice as long as storms today.”
Okay the first line has a chance. I suspect there will be more people and more property in the way. Bill Gray opined there was going to be a quarter trillion dollar storm and he did not believe in man made Global warming, Just hit New Orleans with a storm like Betsy on the 1947 track which I have shown countless times, I wrote a paper after Isabel in 2003 about a storm I expect to see put Philadelphia under water. The question is why hasnt it happened? The rest is hocus pocus magic. How are they moving slower and reaching the northeast corridor more quickly, What about 1954-1955? So are you going to get 6 hits from NC north, 3 majors in 2 years?
Then the next line
“The simulated storms slow to a crawl as they approach the East Coast, allowing them to produce more wind, rain, floods, and related damage in the Northeast region”
Of course they do, unless caught by a strong trough its almost impossible to hit the east coast from the east. Its almost impossible for a strong storm to hit Jacksonville from the east, Why don’t you explain why at 30 north storms slowing near Fla won’t go ashore from an oceanward component there, let alone 40 north, So how are you going to pull that unless a strong trough has caught the storm like Sandy, which hit accelerating into the coast?
Slowing storms near the coast weaken due to frictional effects upwelling and the pulling in of dry air off the land, Look what happened to the. rumored cat 6 Florence
IT MAKES NO PHYSICAL SENSE that a slow-moving storm hits from the east that far north at full intensity, They hit like freight trains from the south and for good reasons, In addition, the very warming they are touting distorts surface pressure patterns and weakens storms. Did they even look at Henri. Here for the people at Rowan read these 2 ideas based on sound physical realities of warming outside of the deep tropics.
and this direct challenge to this which is from someone that actually forecasts hurricanes
“Think of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 sitting over Texas, and Hurricane Dorian in 2019 over the Bahamas,” . “That prolonged exposure can worsen the impacts.”
That assumes the storm does not weaken This is borderline impossible. 1) Harvey was trapped. BY A COLD TROUGH, It was in a very cold pattern that covered much of the US. It was south of 30 degrees north not north of 38 north in the NW Atlantic. In addition, when the rains went wild the storm had weakened. The same kind of trough that far north is taking the storm out to sea or destroying it. This brings us to Using Dorian. Seriously? A hurricane that broke the trough and turned back to the west at 26 or 27 north over the tropics in a textbook fashion and you are going to try to compare that to some fictional model-driven weaponization of weather that has never happened and has next to no chance physically to occur? ( and if fact with warmer water to the north distorting pressure and wind patterns would lead to a countering of this as per the idea above)
and by the way, why was Dorian only a cat 1 at its closest point to the US? Why did it weaken That is your example? A storm that fell apart?
And as far as flooding, when I start seeing storms with the WIDESPREAD FLOODING DEVASTATION OF CONNIE AND DIANE WITHIN A WEEK OF EACH OTHER THEN I WILL BECOME MORE BELIEVING Ida being used in any argument is a case of a relatively small area of excessive rain over an area that escaped other situations before but is by most certainly NOT immune. The extent of flooding from Connie and Diane DWARFS Ida in size.
Sandy by the way was forecasted by this forecaster and his company from Oct 21, Never wavering, Why?I had the maps of Hazel, a storm of the past, and matched the pattern. which by the way flattened the area where Rowan University is. My Aunt and Uncle lived down the street from where Rowan is and my mom and dad were honeymooning in Atlantic City, The storm roared thru at speeds of 50 mph with wind gusts to 100 mph, The authors should look at how the NE corridor truly gets hit because that is a prime example, not what they are making claims of here.The irony its the benchmark tropical event at what is now Rowan University.
You can read the rest of it on your own, It’s Thanksgiving I have much to be thankful for. Serves me right for clicking on WUWT where they will put something on like this to get people to respond since its another case of people who do not forecast that stare at models and use them and make outlandish forecasts no one will ever see that is alive today, getting a paper published. WUWT is a balanced site and puts it on Good for them, Bad for the paper since people can rip it apart that know what is going on.
Maybe Rowan University hit Sandy from 10 days out.. I did not see that forecast since it was just a tropical wave when we made the forecast here. But I would suggest they actually forecast the weather globally for a couple of years for if they did, I doubt such a paper would see the light of day unless it is in a fantasy weather league.
Or the subject of a turkey shoot
Happy Thanksgiving to all
The post A turkey of a paper from the American Geophysical Union appeared first on CFACT.
November 25, 2021