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Guest “From the Famous Failed Prediction Files” by David Middleton

ENERGY Published 5 days ago
John Kerry says US ‘won’t have coal’ by 2030
Climate czar John Kerry claims America ‘will not have coal plants’

By Kyle Morris | Fox News

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said Tuesday in Scotland that America, which boasts the world’s largest economy, will stop burning coal sometime within the next nine years.

“By 2030 in the United States, we won’t have coal,” Kerry told Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait during an interview at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. “We will not have coal plants.”

Discussing a shift from coal, Kerry placed emphasis on markets being a driving force behind more cost-effective power sources like renewables and natural gas. Kerry also reaffirmed his support of the Biden administration‘s goal to eliminate all carbon emissions from the U.S. power grid by 2035.

“We’re saying we are going to be carbon-free in the power sector by 2035,” Kerry said. “I think that’s leadership. I think that’s indicative of what we can do.”

[…]

Fox News

Meanwhile, at the Energy Information Administration…

ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2021

Release date: February 3, 2021   |  Next release date:  January 2022   |  AEO Narrative

Annual Energy Outlook 2021

The Annual Energy Outlook presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the outlook for energy markets through 2050.

Press Presentation   PDF  PPT

The Annual Energy Outlook narrative

The Annual Energy Outlook narrative is the primary discussion of the Annual Energy Outlook:

Introduction

Consumption

Electricity

Production

[…]

Energy Information Administration

I downloaded the Electricity PowerPoint. Here is slide #2, as it appears in the report:

Figure 1. “We’re saying we are going to be carbon-free in the power sector by 20352050” Kerry said.

Here’s the left panel expanded:

Figure 2. It’s a fossil fueled world… Get used to it!

Here’s the same dataset, displayed more realistically:

Figure 3. It’s a fossil fueled world… Get used to it!

“We’re saying we are going to be carbon-free in the power sector by 2035 2050…”

We’re not only not “going to be carbon-free in the power sector by 2035,” will be generating almost as much “carboniferous” electricity in 2050 as we are today.

Even with EIA’s rosy projections, unreliable energy sources will only account for the overall growth in electricity demand over the next 30 years.

Figure 4. It’s a fossil fueled world… Get used to it!

The downside is that the grid will be degraded from ~90% reliable down to ~60% reliable sources.

Figure 5. It’s a fossil fueled world… Get used to it!

The EIA’s base case outlook will have the US sacrificing grid resiliency, while barely reducing GHG emissions. They won’t achieve anything other than making energy more expensive and less reliable.

John Kerry’s energy forecasts are the sorts one would expect from someone who barely got a D in geology.

Boston.com

But he did nearly get a B in French.

John Kerry wins the Geico Cavemen Award….

“Ouais la prochaine fois peut-être faire une petite recherche”

via Watts Up With That?

2021, November, 15