By Paul Homewood

For the last few weeks, the BBC has been regularly publishing the above graph from Climate Action Tracker, showing the extra emission reductions resulting from the new NDCs, National Plans, submitted for COP26.

Essentially they estimate a figure of 3.3 to 4.7 GtCO2e for all GHGs. Significantly this means that they will still be much higher than 2010 in 2030. According to the science, they need to be cut by 45% from 2010 levels to stay on track for 1.5C

Curiously however in the last few days, the BBC has dropped the above graph, and replaced with an ostensibly fake one, which claims that the new COP26 pledges will cut emissions by 10.5 GtCO2e, more than double the Climate Tracker numbers, bringing 2030 levels down to 90% of 2010 ones.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is a a highly respected and independent scientific analysis produced by two research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. Its output is transparent and easily verifiable.

The Energy Transitions Commission, in their own words however, is a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape working together to accelerate the transition to a zero-emissions future. In other words, lobbyists with a vested interest.

So let’s take a closer look at how the Climate Action numbers stack up.

Global emissions of all GHGs, ie not just CO2, rose from 46.3 to 51.2 GtCO2e between 2010 and 2018, the latest year available.

The UNFCCC reckon that Paris NDCs will lead to an increase on 2010 levels of 13.7% in 2030 – meaning a rise to 52.6 GtCO2e. This is clearly in line with CO2 trends since 2015.

Climate Action Tracker estimate that the new NDCs will cut emissions by 3.3 to 4.7 GtCO2e – say 4.0 Gt, leaving 2030 emissions at 48.6 GtCO2e – compared to the Paris NDCs.

They analyse this below. (Note these are not actual cuts in emissions – merely changes from their Paris NDCs):

Most of the savings come from the US and EU. The rest of the world adds up to little more than 1Gt, barely more than a rounding adjustment.

Even these figures look overoptimistic. The new US plan is for a cut of 50% from 2005 levels by 2030. However the Paris NDC already targeted a cut of 27%. By my reckoning Biden’s new target will only save an extra 1.6 Gt. It is of course a highly optimistic plan, assuming full decarbonisation of power by 2035 and 50% EV sales by 2030. Given that he has not got the tools to do any of this, what could go wrong????

The EU is ramping up emissions cuts from 40% to 55% from 1990 levels, and this adds up to another 0.8Gt.

And that’s about it! There are a few small savings to be added into the total from the UK, Japan, Canada etc, but the rest of the world is clearly going to carry on emitting more and more.

In other words, the EU and US additional emission cuts come to around 2.4 Gt, so where the hell does the Energy Transitions Commission get their 10.5Gt from? There is nothing on their website that attempts to justify this.

The conclusion is pretty clear. The BBC know that the British public won’t accept Net Zero policies if the rest of the world is carrying on with business as usual. By publishing their fake graph, they are hoping to persuade people that the rest of the world is doing its bit, and therefore we must do our share.


NOVEMBER 15, 2021