I read today that the EU is using an estimate of US$68 per tonne of CO2 emissions for the purported cost of the damages done by CO2. This is known by a Newspeak term as the “Social Cost Of Carbon”.

It made me wonder—using this estimate, what is the overall total estimated damage done by humans from emitting CO2?

The answer is $97 TRILLION dollars since 1950.

YIKES! That’s about five times the 2020 US Gross Domestic Product (the value of everything produced in the US during that year).

So I thought I’d take a look at the various largest weather-related disasters. I got the big-disaster data from Wikipedia here and arranged it by type of disaster. All values are in 2020 dollars, that is to say, they’re adjusted for inflation. Here is the result.

DAMAGE (TRILLIONS)    DISASTER
DROUGHTS
$0.116    1988–89 North American drought
$0.060    2012–13 North American drought
$0.032    1980 United States heat wave
$0.003    2017 Montana wildfires
$0.21    TOTAL DROUGHTS
    
EUROPEAN WINDSTORMS    
$0.028    Cyclones Lothar and Martin
$0.031    Cyclones Daria, Vivian, and Wiebke
$0.013    Cyclone Kyrill
$0.007    Cyclone Xynthia
$0.008    Cyclone Klaus
$0.008    Cyclone Gudrun
$0.009    Great Storm of 1987
$0.10    TOTAL EUROPEAN WINDSTORMS
    
FLOODS    
$0.053    2011 Thailand floods
$0.032    2020 China floods
$0.028    2002 European floods
$0.031    Great Flood of 1993
$0.013    2016 Louisiana floods
$0.012    June 2008 Midwest floods
$0.007    2013 Alberta floods
$0.003    2019 Midwestern U.S. floods
$0.18    TOTAL FLOODS
    
HAILSTORMS    
$0.003    2017 Minneapolis hailstorm
$0.002    2017 Denver hailstorm
$0.001    2020 Calgary hailstorm
$0.01    TOTAL HAILSTORMS
    
SEVERE STORMS    
$0.003    June 2012 North American derecho
$0.012    August 2020 Midwest derecho
$0.02    TOTAL SEVERE STORMS
    
TORNADOES    
$0.012    2011 Super Outbreak
$0.006    Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003
$0.003    2011 Joplin tornado
$0.003    Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019
$0.002    Tornado outbreak of March 6–7, 2017
$0.03    TOTAL TORNADOES
    
TROPICAL CYCLONES    
$0.167    Hurricane Katrina
$0.133    Hurricane Harvey
$0.098    Hurricane Maria
$0.079    Hurricane Sandy
$0.069    Hurricane Irma
$0.050    Hurricane Ida
$0.046    Hurricane Ike
$0.036    Hurricane Wilma
$0.051    Hurricane Andrew
$0.036    Hurricane Ivan
$0.026    Hurricane Michael
$0.019    Hurricane Laura
$0.025    Hurricane Rita
$0.024    Hurricane Charley
$0.016    Hurricane Matthew
$0.017    Hurricane Irene
$0.014    Cyclone Amphan
$0.016    Cyclone Nargis
$0.012    Typhoon Fitow
$0.019    Typhoon Mireille
$0.014    Hurricane Frances
$0.020    Hurricane Hugo
$0.015    Hurricane Georges
$0.013    Typhoon Songda
$0.013    Tropical Storm Allison
$0.010    Hurricane Gustav
$0.011    Hurricane Jeanne
$0.008    Hurricane Eta
$0.008    Hurricane Sally
$0.008    Typhoon Rammasun
$0.010    Hurricane Floyd
$0.008    Typhoon Morakot
$0.010    Hurricane Mitch
$0.009    Typhoon Prapiroon
$0.008    Hurricane Isabel
$0.005    Hurricane Dorian
$0.008    Typhoon Herb
$0.005    Tropical Storm Imelda
$0.008    Hurricane Opal
$0.005    Typhoon Haiyan
$0.006    Cyclone Gonu
$0.005    Hurricane Manuel
$0.004    Cyclone Yasi
$0.006    Hurricane Iniki
$0.007    Hurricane Gilbert
$0.002    Cyclone Winston
$0.002    Typhoon Bopha
$0.002    Typhoon Ketsana
$0.005    Cyclone Tracy
$1.18    TOTAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
    
WINTER STORMS    
$0.020    February 13–17, 2021 North American winter storm
$0.010    1993 Storm of the Century
$0.002    2011 Groundhog Day blizzard
$0.03    TOTAL WINTER STORMS
    
WILDFIRES    
$0.072    2019–20 Australian bushfire season
$0.025    2018 California wildfires
$0.016    October 2017 Northern California wildfires
$0.010    2016 Fort McMurray wildfire
$0.008    Black Saturday bushfires
$0.002    Cedar Fire
$0.001    2016 Great Smoky Mountains wildfires
$0.001    2011 Slave Lake wildfire
$0.14    TOTAL WILDFIRES
    
$1.89    OVERALL TOTAL ($ trillion)

Hmmm … no matter how you slice it, that’s less than two trillion dollars …

Now, to be sure, there must be a variety of smaller disasters that didn’t make the list. So let’s be conservative, and call the disaster total four times that, or $8 trillion dollars.

To check that value, I looked at the EMDAT Disaster Database. It contains no less than 11,654 detailed records of flood, wildfire, drought, storm, and extreme temperature disasters since 1950. The smallest of these had damages of $4.6 million dollars ($0.0000046 trillion). So it’s catching even very small disasters.

In 2020 dollars, the EMDAT database says that the total cost of those disasters since 1950 is about $10 trillion dollars.

So let us make the obviously incorrect and untenable assumption that 100% of those disaster costs are ascribable to the evil influence of CO2. It’s obviously not true by an order of magnitude or more, but let’s assume that each and every disaster is all 100% from CO2 for the purposes of discussion.

And given even that incorrect and wildly exaggerated assumption, the obvious question is … where is the other $87 trillion dollars of purported CO2 damages from weather-related disasters since 1950?

And it gets much worse if we don’t assume that 100% of the responsibility is due to CO2. Suppose we say (still an exaggeration) that 10% of the responsibility comes from CO2. That would mean that we are missing, not $87 trillion in disasters, but $960 trillion in disasters …

(Let me say that this kind of error, of just picking a random goal like “Net-Zero 2050” or just calculating a value for something like the “Social Cost of Carbon” and not testing the result for reasonableness against real-world data, is far too common in the world of climate “science”. I discuss this issue about “Net-Zero 2050” in my post “Bright Green Impossibilities“.)

And to repeat … where are the missing $87 trillion dollars in damages purportedly caused by so-called “climate disasters”?

My best to all,

w.

AS ALWAYS: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you are discussing. I can defend my own words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words. Thanks.

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October 14, 2021