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Citi isn’t ruling out natural gas at $100 in a frigid winter

Bloomberg, 23 September 2021

Citigroup Inc. more than doubled its Asian and European natural gas forecasts for next quarter and said prices could surge to as high as $100 per million British thermal units in the event of a particularly cold winter.

Liquefied natural gas prices are skyrocketing as seasonally low European inventories, booming Chinese demand and supply constraints from Russia to Nigeria lead to a bidding war for the power generation feedstock before the northern hemisphere winter. Japan-Korea marker prices have jumped almost 50% so far this month to near $30 per mmBtu, while in Europe LNG is up around 40% to close to $25. Price gains in the U.S. have been more subdued.

Average prices next quarter will be moderately higher than current levels in Citi’s base case, the bank said in the note. However, there are likely to be price spikes and if unusually cold weather boosts demand and hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico disrupt supplies, cargoes could trade in the $100 per mmBtu range, or $580 a barrel in oil-equivalent terms, it said.

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via climate science

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September 23, 2021