This economist clearly has faith in IPCC climate models and theories, but he may be in for his own shock by putting all his climate eggs in the carbon dioxide emissions basket. Meanwhile, brace for economic pain.
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The vast expense of ending global warming [Talkshop comment: reality may differ] will trigger a blow to the world economy that is as damaging as the 1974 oil shock, a top international economist has warned. The Telegraph reporting.
A scramble to cut carbon emissions is likely to send energy prices rocketing and hold back living standards for years to come, Jean Pisani-Ferry said in a report published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Mr Pisani-Ferry – a public policy expert who has served in senior economic roles in the European Union for decades – said that although the bill is both manageable and necessary to halt climate change, politicians are failing to be honest with the public about the dramatic effect on their lives and livelihoods.
His research has significant implications for Boris Johnson, who has committed Britain to one of the world’s toughest carbon emission targets and is hosting the COP26 conference of world leaders this year in a bid to limit temperature rises.
The Prime Minister has yet to set out what he expects his plans to cost.
In 1973-4, oil prices rocketed 300pc and countries across the West were forced to ration supply. The crisis sent inflation surging, was accompanied by a stock market crash and is viewed by some researchers as the most significant economic event since the Great Depression.
Mr Pisani-Ferry said: “The 1974 shock was of the same order of magnitude as the one that is bound to be triggered by efforts to cut emissions in the decade ahead.
“At the time, it caused a significant slowdown of world GDP and a sharp recession in advanced economies. It ushered in a struggle between workers and employers for the distribution of a diminished surplus. It led to stagflation, which confronted policymakers with the hard choice between warding off recession and fighting inflation. Growth was subdued for several years.”
The report suggests the rush to curb emissions will have similarly dramatic implications, destroying jobs and businesses as the world adapts on a vast scale.
Full article here [paywalled].
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
August 20, 2021