No imminent upward pressure on global temperatures resulting from the ENSO phenomenon, judging by the latest analysis. Possibly the opposite, if current trends continue.

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Aug.12 (Reuters) — The La Niña weather pattern could potentially develop during the August-October season, and last through the 2021-22 winter, the U.S. government’s National Weather Service said on Thursday. (Yahoo Finance reporting.)

The La Niña pattern is characterized by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked to floods and drought.

Meanwhile, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are favoured for the remainder of the northern hemisphere summer, the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

There is about a 60% chance of ENSO neutral conditions for the July-September season, and a 70% chance of La Niña from November through January 2022, the CPC said.

The ENSO weather pattern is marked by average long-term ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall and atmospheric winds.

Full report here.
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More analysis here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

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August 14, 2021