Not long ago Dr. Roy Spencer published Version 6 University of Alabama-Huntsville satellite-based global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2021. It was -0.01 deg. C, down an impressive 0.7°C since the peak in early 2016.
As Dr. Spencer’s chart above shows, temperatures are back within the range seen 20 years ago. The question many of us have is what are global mean surface temperatures going to do over the coming year or so?
We know that the mean global temperature is driven in large part by the oceanic surface temperature cycles, especially the ENSO.
Two years of below neutral Nino 3.4 SST
Forecasting the ENSO can thus help us project what the global mean surface temperature will be like a year ahead. Normally there’s a lag of about 8 months.
Looking at the latest NCEP CFSv2 ENSO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies and the ensemble mean forecast:
Late last year the equatorial Pacific was cooler than normal – meaning a globe cooling a La Nina. Now some 8 months later, global surface temperatures have cooled down.
Another La Nina is forecast
Today the NINO 3.4 is back to neutral, and so we can expect global surface temperature to rise once again by a few tenths of a degree Celsius. But then things are expected to cool off once more as another La Nina is projected take hold by autumn. So once again we should see temperatures dropping again at about this time next year if the ensemble forecast turns out to be correct. If that happens we’ll be able to say with some certainty the global warming hiatus is back.
Note that one recent study found a link between solar activity and the ENSO, e.g. Leamon et al 2021. Right now a number of scientists are expecting a period of low solar activity to persist until 2050.
Read more here.
Not looking good for the global warming doomsday activists.
July 7, 2021