Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Who is going to tell China? According to scientists interviewed by the SMH, there is still a chance to avoid 2C warming if we immediately halt the expansion of all coal and gas projects.

Facing the climate ‘endgame’ in a world bound for 1.5 degrees warming

By Nick O’Malley
April 15, 2021 — 12.01am

The world will break through the more ambitious Paris climate target of 1.5 degrees as soon as 2030 but may still avoid a more catastrophic 2 degrees of warming if governments act immediately to dramatically reduce emissions, according to a new report.

The Climate Council report, Aim High, Go Fast, is based on new data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and echoes similar findings by the Australian Academy of Science issued last week, but has prompted a dissenting report from one prominent Australian climate scientist, Bill Hare.

In the report the Climate Council says that in view of Australia’s historical contribution to global warming, its high emissions and its natural advantages in renewable energy generation, the government should now aim to reduce emissions by 75 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2035.

Asked if such an abrupt reduction was possible, one of the report’s authors, executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute Will Steffen, cited the example of allied nations transforming their economies in five years to defeat the Axis power in World War II.

“The point is, it’s going to be a tough decade, no doubt about it,” he said. “There’ll be some disruption soon, but it’ll be an exciting decade and it’ll set us up for a much brighter future after 2030.”

To reach such targets Professor Steffen said the government would need to immediately halt the expansion of coal and gas and plan to support affected communities as fossil fuels were phased out. Secondly, Australia would have to reach almost 100 per cent renewables in its energy system by 2030.

Read more:

Oddly the Climate Council don’t seem to have published their report on their own website – I’m sure it will appear at some point. The climate council report is available here. Don’t get excited by Bill Hare’s dissenting report, he apparently thinks the Climate Council is not alarmist enough.

I’m looking forward to 2030. Climate alarmists have once again fallen into the trap of making a radical prediction with a near term horizon. Just like Al Gore’s ice free arctic by 2013, or Climate Council head Tim Flannery’s 2006 end of rain prediction, 2030 is too soon.

Either we won’t hit 1.5C by 2030, despite building hundreds of new coal plants, in which case climate alarmists will have to explain why, or they will look stupid when we do hit 1.5C, and nobody can tell the difference. Either way it will be an entertaining new entry in the list of failed climate predictions.

Update (EW): Me bad – the Climate Council report is at the top of their page.

via Watts Up With That?

April 14, 2021 at 08:28PM