An 8-Century Tropical Atlantic SST Reconstruction

By Paul Homewood

This paper, published in 2007, appeared in my inbox today. It tries to reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic back to AD 1200:

This is the key chart. The top bold line shows the reconstructed SSTs:

The MWP and LIA are immediately recognisable. Although the Abstract claims that largest increase in magnitude and fastest rate of SST change occurred in the 20thC, I can see little difference between this and the rise during the 14thC, or indeed the 18thC. Given how cold the LIA was, it is little surprise that warming since has been so rapid.

What this study proves is that variations in SSTs are common, natural events. There is no evidence whatsoever that 20th rise in SSTs was caused by GHGs. In any event, physics tell us that any oceanic warming from GHGs can only be microscopic, given the colossal heat content of the oceans.

And, as we also know, sea temperatures affect land temperatures, and not the other way around. In short, warmer oceans will inevitable lead to warmer land masses. It is the oceans which drive the world’s climate.

The paper then goes on to explore hurricane activity, and its correlation with SSTs.

Figure B, which uses 9-year smoothing, clearly shows that hurricane activity did not increased after 1970, despite SST rising, contrary to theory. The explanation for this may lie in Dr Roy Spencer’s theory that the Atlantic gets hot enough every year to spawn hurricanes. Going over that threshold, however, makes no difference.


March 29, 2021 at 04:45AM