LET’S RECAP: In Part-1 of this three-part series, we presented the latest findings and data that show how the Earth’s internal nuclear furnace may play a major role in the changes in the Earth’s climate. We demonstrated the enormous impact that the El Nino warming cycles have had on the global satellite temperatures of the past 40-year.
In Part-2, we highlighted that NASA/NOAA and the UN/IPCC only consider the Sun’s Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in calculating the Earth’s Energy Budget. In July 2011, NOAA told Scientific American and Nature Geoscience that the Earth’s nuclear core could be supplying as much heat as it gets from the sun. We estimated that as many as 3 million volcanoes could be hidden from sight and our instruments in the deepest oceans. Some are buried under major glaciers contributing to some melting. Lastly, we focused on one volcano, the Axial Seamount, heating the Pacific Northwest from Alaska to northern California.
In this Part-3, we identify the significant causes of the global warming in the past 50-years and then forecast what to expect in the next 30 to 50 years.
PUTTING THE CLIMATE CHANGE PIECES TOGETHER.
NASA/NOAA says it’s all about CO2, but let’s put that myth to rest first by summarizing what the two most brilliant minds in the field have to say about it. Dr. Fred Singer demonstrated that even if radiative forcing somehow became atmospheric heat, 95% of that Greenhouse Effect is produced by nature. Water vapor is over 95% and CO2 accounts for 3.5%. Human-made CO2 is barely 0.12%. This is true because CO2 can only absorb a small amount of the available shortwave Infra-Red in the 15 Micrometer range. The latest estimates suggest that the first 200 to 300 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere captures nearly 100% of this energy. After that, CO2 can double and double again, but there’s no shortwave IR left to energize it.i
Dr. Will Happer says: data suggest that higher global temperatures will cause increased atmospheric water vapor. More water vapor means more and bigger clouds that reflect more of the sun’s energy to outer space. The assumed 30% sun’s TSI reflected heat might increase to 31% or 32%, resulting in the Earth’s net cooling. Secondly, when water vapor condenses to rain or ice/snow, it releases enormous amounts of heat, most directly to outer space, thus cooling the Earth. Could these combined effects result in a net cooling of the planet? No one yet understands how to calculate the impact of these changes.
In a stunning report published just weeks ago on February 12, 2021, Zoe Phinii effectively questions the entire concept of the result of the greenhouse effect on global temperature. She analyzed NASA’s satellite data from 2003 to 2019. Contrary to what NASA had been saying about greenhouse effect warming, the report concludes with this quote: “The standard greenhouse effect narrative is that infrared absorbing gases prevent radiation from reaching space and this causes warming at the surface (thus more radiation). Well, we clearly see that’s not case. If clouds (water vapor + aerosols) hardly changes outgoing surface radiation, then the whole hypothesis is in error. Less top-of-atmosphere outgoing radiation doesn’t cause surface heating and thus more radiation from the surface, despite the increase in downwelling radiation.”
In conclusion, she says increased CO2 made zero contribution to Modern Warming.
The sun and Earth’s core account for nearly 100% of Modern Warming. But how it does bears no resemblance to the NASA/NOAA cartoon image of the Earth’s Energy Budget and the CO2 delusion we have lived with for decades. We now discuss the sun’s natural cycles and the sun’s relationship cycles with the Earth that cause real climate change.
- We start with the astronomical cycles, also called the Milankovitch cycles. These natural cycles determine how much of the sun’s energy is received by the Earth and where and how it’s distributed over the Earth. For example, the Earth is about 90 million miles from the sun, but that’s an average. The Earth’s orbit is ever-changing, going from as close as about 83 million miles resulting in more heating and as far away as 120 million miles providing less heat. This is the primary cause of the 100,000-year Ice Age cycles. Second, there is the tilt of the Earth towards the sun continuously changes over 41,000 years. This changing tilt distributes less heat to the Northern Hemisphere and more to the Southern Hemisphere, making it the primary factor in a 50,000-year Ice Age cycle. Other lesser orbital cycles exist like the planets causing the sun to wobble around a 5-million mile distance from the Earth. But, none of these long-term astronomical cycles contributed to Modern Warming.
Figure-2 shows a typical 11-year cycle, and we readily distinguish the active phases by an increased number of sunspots and increased/bright solar flares. These cycles are a significant contributor to Modern Warming. These cycles change over time. Figure-3 shows the historical solar activity level as measured by Total Solar Irradiation (TSI), in Watts per square meter. During the 1600s, a period of very low TSI activity corresponds to the Little Ice Age, the coldest temperatures on Earth in the last 10,000-years. Now take note of the increasing TSI from 1900 to 1999 (black arrow) when Modern Warming was increasing the most. Since 2000, note the downward trend in TSI and temperatures by the blue arrow in Figure-3. Dr. V. Zharkova predicts that the next 3 to 4 solar cycles will continue to decrease over the next 40 years, producing a return to the colder temperatures seen in the 1800s (known as the Dalton Minimum).
The heat from beneath as we have been saying for the past two weeks is the other major cause for Modern Warming. In Figure-4, we see the satellite temperature record from 1979 to January 2021. There are many very relevant pieces of information here.
- Looking at the 40-year trend line (dashed green arrow), we see a temperature increase maxing out in 2016 at about 1.1 C, which we called the Modern Warming when the solar activities were high, until about 2000. The solid green arrow shows the Modern Cooling starting at 2000, with the temperature dropping about 0.4 C. Lastly, we see a dramatic drop of about 0.6 C (yellow arrow) in the past 5-years.
- But, in Figure-4, we also see that something else is also going on besides the solar activity, especially the 7-yellow stars we’ve added. Each of these yellow stars corresponds to the most potent ElNino recorded. Especially note the two gigantic events in 1998/99 and 2015/16. Here we see the heat from the Earth’s nuclear furnace warming up the ocean waters adding additional global warming until about 2000. After 2000 we see that ocean volcanic heating continues and is now preventing the Earth from cooling as fast as expected based on the reduced solar activity alone.
- This Earth’s Core heat also explains two other central mysteries: the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 in the past 5-decades. Deep ocean waters contain 45 times more dissolved CO2 than is in the atmosphere. When these deep ocean volcanoes and vents heat these cold waters, the oceans release gigantic amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. This confirms Singer’s statement that the human-made increase in global CO2 since 1755 is only 3.5%, while nature made the other 96.5%. The other mystery is what caused the modest global sea level to rise over this same 50-year period? A fundamental physical property of water is that as it warms it expands, and the warmer the water, the more it expands.
- Finally several theories have been put forth to see if there is some relationship between the sun’s magnetic activity cycles and the Earth’s volcanic activities. Much more research needs to be done before any one of them can be verified with data and scientific evidence. For this reason, we request that US Government agencies realign their research funding priorities and shift the research grants $billions away from the present 90% chasing the CO2 rabbit to 90% awarded to the real scientists of climate change.
LET’S RECAP OUR JOURNEY THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE.
- Humanity has NO control and NO influence on global climate change. (Irrigation and citifying can certainly change a small geographical area) Enjoy your fossil fuels until we can find a viable nuclear solution.
- The Global Warming and Global Climate Change of the last 50-years are caused by the natural-short term cycles described above and independent of what humanity does or does not do.
- Short-term climate change will continue within a relatively narrow temperature range for many hundreds of years to come. But some thousands of years in the future, the astronomical/Milankovitch cycles will take over, and there will be a return to the Ice Age. Hopefully, by that time, humanity will have advanced technology to the point where we might mitigate the damages.
- The increased atmospheric CO2, thanks to mother nature, has provided free natural fertilizer and stimulated/accelerated the greening of the Earth, and rewards all life with more plants and more food for all of nature’s creatures.
- NASA/NOAA must stop the analogy of the Greenhouse Effect in order to mislead the scientifically challenged citizens. Secondly, NOAA must remember what they said 10-years ago. They stated that the Earth’s core provided the planet with as much heat as the sun, but in the last several years, they appear to have forgotten all of that.
- Most importantly, US Government agencies, like NASA/NOAA, must find the courage and discipline to be truthful to the American people instead of catering to the CO2 industries and their lobbyists.
- REMEMBER WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE. THE CORE OF THE EARTH IS NEARLY THE SAME TEMPERATURE AS THE SURFACE OF THE SUN, OVER 6000 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. HOW CAN CLIMATE MODELERS IGNORE A HEAT SOURCE TENS OF MILES BELOW US WHILE ONLY CONSIDERING THE SOURCE MILLIONS OF MILES ABOVE?
Portions of this article are excerpted from the 2020 book A HITCHHIKERS JOURNEY THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE by Terigi Ciccone and Dr. Jay Lehr. The book is the best source for parents and grandparents to explain climate change reality to their children.
By Terigi Ciccone |March 10th, 2021
March 10, 2021 at 03:39AM