73469618 – a rustic patriotic texas message, map of texas with the texas flag colors on weathered wood background with text don’t mess with texas

Fossil fuels are now also being blamed for the situation in Texas to add to Climate change and Global weirding. There is nothing these folks will not weaponize with nature and natural events. So lets dig in even further here.

The cold BEFORE the 5 day stretch of the worst winter weather event in Texas history I was touting (since I said it well before hand, I feel I can reference it) was a big problem. Computer models were much too warm in the run up before all this. If your system is relying on those models for load estimations and you do not have someone telling you how out of touch those numbers are, then guess what is going to happen? I had conversation with clients last week that are meteorologists and we were astounded at how bad models were, even 6 hours away, When a model is saying it is going to be 40 and its actually 30 in a place like Dallas, you can only imagine what kind of implications that has for demand. Do that over multiple days and when the worst 5 day period of winter weather hits, as we were loudly proclaiming from the MIDDLE of last week to anyone who would listen (that is not Monday morning quarterbacking. Our posts on Weatherbell.com and as much as I can on Twitter were outlining the impending disaster, and btw it was getting ridiculed in some circles) and there is indeed going to be a disaster.

Blaming any one aspect and trying to score political points is wrong. Here are 5 points to show why you can’t simply say that, and either you do not know this, or you do and you are trying to deceive people. The fact is if there was preparation, which I was loudly calling for several days before, echoing publicly what we were telling our clients and subscribers, we could have mitigated the effects better.

1) Demand slammed Texas two-fold: saw soaring from gas consumption from power generation to meet skyrocketing electricity demand, while at the same time demand was soaring for natural gas for home heating.

2) There was natural gas well freeze offs occurring throughout the State of Texas and power generation from wind power also saw a major decline. Unlike wind generation in the north, Texas wind power isn’t equipped for intense cold and the turbines can freeze up. This is a terrible situation because in the last decade Texas has become the leader in wind power generation.  There should have been responses in place ready for this. Again preparations with equipment and supplies, even if it is helicopters spraying the turbines, in advance.

This tweet was Feb 10

This from the 10th

You can not get any more extreme that far in advance than this.

This tweet was from Feb 12

Obviously, there was no snowfighting or deicing equipment being shipped south into Texas in massive pre outbreak preparation. There was nothing from the federal government, which it is why it is so rich to see them now blame fossil fuels for this. Those that live in glass houses should not throw stones. The strategy is after this happened, to blame climate change and fossil fuels. Well if you knew this would happen, why would you not step in first. Either you wanted it to happen so you can assign blame or you had no idea what was going to occur.

I heard no comment from the president before this was coming, nor have I heard one after though comments by his spokesperson inspired this response.

3) Because of the intense demand, pipelines all over the region were imposing low inventory operational flow orders (OFOs) as well as declaring force majeure all over the place in recent days. An OFO is an order from the pipeline where gas minimums have to met so that the pipeline can maintain its operational and structural integrity.

4) Then there was the issue of natural gas not being able to efficiently flow to market hubs. Prior to the Obama Administration and before ‘clean air mandates’ were imposed, most natural gas compressor and compressor stations, which moves natural gas down the pipeline, were self-gas fueled and self-powered, drawing gas from the pipeline itself to run the compressor station. However, after Green/Renewable mandates were imposed in many areas of the country, many natural gas compressors stations became ‘electrically powered’. This created a negative loop in terms of reliablilty because

whenever power would go out, the compressor stations couldn’t move natural gas down the pipeline the power generators. You need natural gas delivered to the power generators in order to produce power, but they couldn’t get it there because the power was out.

5) Because of well-freeze off, natural gas production dropped from nearly 90 Bcf/day to just under 70 Bcf/day, which is the lowest level in over 3 years.

As I said a combination of events, but all could have been mitigated with pre event preparation. Which is what my company does, advise people on these situations in advance, The Why Before the What is what we do, not finger pointing after the event.

Let me be clear. I AM NOT ANTI RENEWABLE. I love forecasting for renewables as it is a huge challenge, and I am a challenge junkie. But I am pro truth. Renewables, like climate and weather, are now a pawn in a game where deception and ignorance (the fact is people are told half truths or things they are not aware of, or perhaps even the messenger is not aware of, as a means to an end) are 2 tactics being used. Its what the left does and quite well. Weaponize events in a phony climate war, to push a point that has nothing to do with helping people and everything to do with another agenda.

I am not a news reporter, nor do I want to be. But given loud public statements echoing the no uncertain stance my company was taking so far before this, I feel I have earned the chance to speak up on this. There are 5 points up there ( 6 if you count the weather and preparation aspect), it’s the total picture that matters Like weather and climate, no one thing leads to an event, but it’s the total picture. And the total picture is not being presented here. And there is plenty of reason for people playing a blame game after the fact to look in the mirror at what they might have done before this happened.

via CFACT

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February 19, 2021 at 10:06AM