The Week That Was: 2021-02-06 (February 6, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.” – John F. Kennedy, February 26, 1962 [H/t Tony Heller]

Number of the Week: – Down About One-Third Since 1945

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Censorship: Since 1978, microwave sounding units (MSUs) onboard satellites measure the intensity of upwelling microwave radiation from atmospheric oxygen. In 1990, Roy Spencer and John Christy announced a way of using these data to calculate comprehensive atmospheric temperature trends. Primarily from irregularity in orbits, several small errors were discovered and rapidly corrected. This is the way science works by constant testing of assumptions and hypotheses against physical evidence and correction of deficiencies.

Initially, Christy and Spencer received awards for their critical work. Since the mid-1990s, the US climate science establishment largely ignores their work, even though it has not been discredited or replaced by superior methods. The satellite system provides the only worldwide temperature-measurement system!

The climate establishment has no logical or scientific reason for ignoring important scientific data (evidence). Further, the work is ignored by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly in its second assessment report (1995) and subsequently. Christy and Spencer have had difficulty publishing their work in western journals. Why the censorship?

The Quote of the Week is from a 1962 speech by John F. Kennedy celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Voice of America, founded 79 days after the US entered World War II. The speech also states:

“In 1946 the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution reading in part, ‘freedom of information is a fundamental human right, and the touchstone of all the freedoms to which the United Nations is consecrated.’ This is our touchstone as well.”

Kennedy’s speech prompts questions: Why does the UN IPCC suppress freedom of information, a fundamental human right?

Why do US scientific entities and US funded scientific organizations suppress important scientific information from the US public? What do they have to fear?

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jfkvoiceofamerica.htm

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Update of Science by John Christy: What has advanced and what has not advanced in climate science is the theme of a video presentation John Christy gave for Climate Intelligence, CLINTEL, an independent foundation exploring climate change and climate policy. Founded in 2019 by “emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok CLINTEL’s main objective is to generate knowledge and understanding of the causes and effects of climate change as well as the effects of climate policy.” Its activities include:

“1. The Foundation tries to communicate objectively and transparently to the general public what facts are available about climate change and climate policy and also where facts turn into assumptions and predictions.

“2. The Foundation conducts and stimulates a public debate about this and carries out investigative reporting in this field.

“3. The Foundation wants to function as an international meeting place for scientists with different views on climate change and climate policy.

“4. The Foundation will also carry out or finance its own scientific research into climate change and climate policy.

“CLINTEL wants to take the role of independent ‘climate watchdog’, both in the field of climate science and climate policy.”

In short, CLINTEL performs good investigative reporting on government funded climate science, where major news organizations have failed. The major news organizations have become carnival barkers for bandwagon science.

In his update of science to CLINTEL, Christy presents an amusing cartoon of a heating and cooling tug-of-war, depicting what is occurring at the surface of the globe. We have heat loss, cooling, primarily from surface radiation (outgoing longwave radiation) and evaporation. We have heating primarily from solar radiation and downward atmosphere radiation. The relative sizes of these components appears mislabeled, solar radiation is by far the dominant one. What Christy describes as downward atmosphere radiation, TWTW terms as atmospheric blocking of outgoing radiation. What is important is the very small influence of human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). It is a light weight in a tug of war between giants.

What is more important for TWTW is the graph showing 39 IPCC Climate Model Simulations using the latest models (CMIP-6). These are performed for the tropical upper troposphere (atmospheric pressure of 300 to 200 hPa, or an altitude of approximately 30,000 to 40,000 feet). The tropics lie between roughly 23.5 degrees north and south of the equator.

For the 40-year period of satellite observations of temperature trends, 1979 to 2019, the observed temperature trends are compared with model runs. The observed average warming trend is 0.17 degrees C per decade. The model average over the period is a warming of 0.40 degrees C per decade. If global climate models cannot describe what has occurred in the past 40 years, there is no logical reason that they can describe what will occur in the next 40 or 80 years.

Simply put, the UN IPCC modeling effort and its participants are not trying to understand the greenhouse effect and how greenhouse gases influence temperatures. Is this what they are afraid to let the public judge?

Also interesting is the graph of the 5-year running mean of tropical temperature anomalies using CMIP-6 models (the latest being used by the IPCC). The trends from three weather balloon data sets and weather analysis data are also included. Here one can see the general agreement between satellite data, weather balloon data, and reanalysis. Since the early 1990s there is a growing disparity between observational datasets and modeling. That disparity is now greater than the actual atmospheric warming trend.

NASA announced that Gavin Schmidt, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS), has become a Senior Climate Advisor to the Biden Administration. Thus, the GISS model (GISS-E2) is of particular interest among those Christy examined. It too overestimated the warming of the tropical atmosphere at 30 to 40,000 feet by about two times, though not as badly as some other models.

Hopefully, the Biden Administration will not continue the modeling deceptions. Instead, it will follow the lead of John F. Kennedy. It will be honest with the American people, and not be afraid of them.

For the folly of using surface data to estimate the CO2 influence on climate change see the essay by Roy Spencer on US warming trends. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Expanding the Orthodoxy. For the video of Christy’s presentation, one may have to obtain the password from the post by Marcel Crok. The video contains data contradicting claims of a climate crisis, extreme weather events, etc.

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Radiative Transfer from Russia: Writing in No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard brings attention to a paper by Boris. M. Smirnov in the Journal of Atmospheric Science Research. Smirnov is a nuclear physicist and headed the laboratory at the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Energy (Moscow). According to Amazon, his available books include: Global Atmospheric Phenomena Involving Water: Water Circulation, Atmospheric Electricity, and the Greenhouse Effect (2020), Theory of Gas Discharge Plasma (2014) (part of the Springer Series on Atomic, Optical, and Plasma Physics), Microphysics of Atmospheric Phenomena (2016) and with Vladimir Krainov, Atomic and Molecular Radiative Processes: With Applications to Modern Spectroscopy and the Greenhouse Effect (2019).

His work is in the field of physics TWTW has been emphasizing in recent months. The climate establishment in Western Europe and North America, under the UN IPCC, has been ignoring critical work in the most important discipline in physics needed to understand the greenhouse effect – Radiative Transfer – how certain gases block, not trap, outgoing longwave radiation. Thereby, these gases prevent the earth from going into a deep freeze at night, permitting vegetation and complex life on land. Contrary to what some politicians may say, radiative transfer is not simple physics, but it is critically needed to separate the effects of human increases in greenhouse gases from other human influences and from natural variation.

As seen by John Christy’s analysis of how poorly the climate models describe the historical warming of the atmosphere over the tropics for the past 40 years, there is no logical reason to assume that they correctly estimate the greenhouse effect or correctly predict its effect into the future. Further, when the IPCC says that most of the recent warming is from humans, there is no logical reason to assume this warming is from increasing CO2 instead of other human influences such as increasing population and urbanization.

In his June 2020 paper, Smirnov writes:

“Atmospheric radiative fluxes are evaluated for the line-by-line model of spectral lines in considering the atmosphere as a weakly nonuniform plane layer and altitude profiles of its parameters are taken from the model of standard atmosphere. Concepts of molecular spectroscopy are combined with the local thermodynamic equilibrium for greenhouse gases and with information from HITRAN data base for parameters of radiative transitions. In addition, the energetic balance of the Earth allows one to determine the radiative flux from clouds. As a result, the algorithm is worked out for evaluation of the atmospheric radiative flux toward the Earth depending on its composition. We … concentrate on the change of atmospheric radiative fluxes as a result of doubling of the concentration of CO2 molecule.”

Smirnov uses the same important HITRAN database as W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, which is far more appropriate in estimating the changing greenhouse effect than surface temperature trends. To estimate the influence of doubling CO2 in today’s atmosphere Smirnov uses a:

“…combination of thermodynamics and molecular spectroscopy of atmospheric air with usage [of, sic] the contemporary data for radiative IR transitions in molecules from HITRAN data base within the framework of the line-by-line model, as well as the energetic balance of the Earth and its atmosphere for radiative fluxes of clouds.”

  and concludes:

We above determine the above change of the global temperature according to which the greenhouse effect due to CO2 molecules is approximately 25% of the total change of the global temperature under contemporary atmospheric conditions. As it follows from this, the basis of the Paris climatic agreements is wrong. It would not indicate the danger of a wide propaganda about the role of carbon dioxide in the future climate. In particular, the propaganda of European media in interest of some financial groups convinces European habitants that the most danger in futures follows from injection of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of combustion of fossil fuels. Indeed, a contemporary increase of the carbon dioxide amount in the atmosphere is a result of human activity which changes the carbon equilibrium between the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The careful investigations are required, as the above NASA programs for atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature, which allow one to understand a real state of affairs in order to conserve our planet for the man.” [Boldface added. This is a rough translation, unedited by TWTW.]

As he states, Smirnov’s calculations need to be double-checked. But this is exactly the type of work the UN IPCC must include before its assessments are sufficiently sound for establishing policy. Further, it is interesting to note that Smirnov’s latest book was published by the Russian Academy of Sciences. Included in the introduction is:

“This book covers the role of water in global atmospheric phenomena, focusing on the physical processes involving water molecules and water microparticles. It presents the reader with a detailed look at some of the most important types of global atmospheric phenomena involving water, such as water circulation, atmospheric electricity and the greenhouse effect. Beginning with the cycle of water evaporation and condensation, and the important roles played by the nucleation and growth processes of water microdroplets, the book discusses atmospheric electricity as a secondary phenomenon of water circulation in the atmosphere, comprising a chain of processes involving water molecules and water microdroplets. Finally, the book discusses aspects of the molecular spectroscopy of greenhouse atmospheric components, showing how water molecules and water microdroplets give the main contribution to atmospheric emission in the infrared spectrum range.”

Needless to say, the book takes a totally different approach to the issue of climate science than the IPCC, specifically emphasizing the science of radiative transfer, which is the only atmospheric science that pertains to the greenhouse effect. Would the US National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine dare publish a book proposing an approach to climate change different from the IPCC? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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The Improving State of the World: In 2007, the CATO Institute published a book by Indur Goklany, The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives On a Cleaner Planet. The book is based on a review of extensive data, carefully resourced, and uses effective graphs to present a sound, comprehensive argument supporting his theme. Needless to say, the book was not well received by environmental groups.

Now, the Global Warming Policy Foundation has produced a short update of the book in a pdf.

“Impacts of Climate Change: Perception and Reality” concisely addresses topics such as extreme weather events, wildfires, food and hunger, sea-level rise, etc. As typical of Goklany, the paper is well-researched. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Number of the Week: – Down About One-Third Since 1945. Roger Pielke Jr. has a shocking data-backed essay for those who are alarmed by extreme weather events. “Since 1945, the number of hurricanes that make landfall has declined by about a third.” These data show how poorly NOAA informs the public about extreme weather events. In its current counts of hurricanes NOAA is including storms way out to sea that were ignored or not even known in the past. Why does NOAA fear the American public so much that it cannot correctly inform the public that its counting systems have changed when it makes press releases? As Pielke writes:

“Even if the world returns to a much more active period of hurricane activity, like that observed in the 1950s, we can be confident that progress made in forecasting, warning, evacuation and overall societal resilience empowers us to be well-prepared for whatever the future may hold.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summaryhttps://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summaryhttps://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Testing Climate Claims: 2021 Update

Updating the science – what has advanced and not advanced

By John Christy, Irish Climate Science Forum, Jan 21, 2021

https://ucd-ie.zoom.us/rec/play/cGvKo-h6Vu9hLJQK6gvwXUYG3CVGp_UTz7iT4zsOFIYwKRu4_-QiCaXKFqkH7bXDEpYeEOY_gdK2pztJ.l5_YJh2tOn3W_eqp?continueMode=true

[SEPP Comment: Video may require a password obtained from Marcel Crok’s post immediately below.]

Climate Model Failure

By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 2, 2021

Link to: New presentation by John Christy: models for AR6 still fail to reproduce trends in tropical troposphere

By Marcel Crok, CLINTEL, Jan 22, 2021

https://ift.tt/2O6R2nh

Molecular Physicist’s New Publications Add To The List of Over 130 Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity Papers

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 1, 2021

Link to paper: Atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate

By Boris. M. Smirnov, Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, June 2020

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341932879_Atmospheric_carbon_dioxide_and_climate

Link to book: Global Atmospheric Phenomena Involving Water: Water Circulation, Atmospheric Electricity, and the Greenhouse Effect

By Boris M. Smirnov, Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 2020

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-030-58039-1#authorsandaffiliationsbook

New report: Climate “emergency” claims falsified by real world data

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Feb 4, 2021

Link to paper Impacts of Climate Change: Perception and Reality

By Indur M. Goklany, GWPF, 2021

A Remarkable Decline in Landfalling Hurricanes

Since 1945, the number of hurricanes that make landfall has declined by about a third

By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Feb 1, 2021

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable-decline-in-landfalling

Judith Curry Interview (Part II: Public Policy)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 4, 2021

“People are looking for simple problems with simple solutions, and they thought that climate change was a simple problem.”

“Thinking that we can control the climate is misguided hubris.”– Judith Curry

[SEPP Comment: Different emphasis than the editing of the interview presented in last week’s TWTW.]

Climate Researcher’s New E-Book: IPCC Significantly Overstates CO2, “The Sorry State Of Climate Science”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 5, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Reviewing “The Rational Climate e-Book: Cooler is Riskier. The Sorry State of Climate Science and Policies” by geologist Patrice Poyet.

Could Recent U.S. Warming Trends be Largely Spurious?

Several lines of evidence suggest observed warming trends are not nearly as large as what you have been told.

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 29, 2021

How much global warming should IPCC’s next report predict?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Feb 2, 2021

Defending the Orthodoxy

How to predict the unpredictable in a changing climate

Press Release by Evan Lim, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Feb 5, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-unpredictable-climate.html

Link to paper: Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

By Miriam Matejova and Chad M. Briggs, Global Environmental Politics, Jan 26, 2021

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/glep_a_00591

[SEPP Comment: Step 1, assume you know far more than what anyone else knows; Step 2, Keep your predictions far enough into the future so no one can confront you with physical evidence that you are wrong; and Step 3, Claim the disastrous event is building now but is hidden and it will hit suddenly far in the future. A technique well established by NASA-GISS in sea level rise.]

COVID-19 lockdowns temporarily raised global temperatures

Reductions in aerosol emissions had slight warming impact, research shows

By Staff, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Feb 2, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-02/ncfa-clt020221.php

Link to paper: Climate Impacts of COVID‐19 Induced Emission Changes

By Gettelman, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 29, 2020

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091805

[SEPP Comment: NCAR learned how to play games with aerosol v. CO2 long ago. The atmosphere may be on a cooling trend from the previous high. So, they need excuses.]

Human activity caused the long-term growth of greenhouse gas methane

By Staff Writers, Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Feb 01, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Human_activity_caused_the_long_term_growth_of_greenhouse_gas_methane_999.html

Link to paper; Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past Three Decades

By Naveen Chandra, et al. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2021

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/advpub/0/advpub_2021-015/_article

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Accurate reporting falls like leaves in autumn

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Feb 3, 2021

Shark teeth offer clues to ancient climate change

Teeth from the long-extinct sand tiger shark provide historical information

Press Release, NSF, Feb 2, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=302036&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to paper; Probing the Ecology and Climate of the Eocene Southern Ocean With Sand Tiger Sharks Striatolamia macrota

By Sora L. Kim, et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Nov 6, 2020

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020PA003997

From abstract: Two possible hypotheses to explain these observations are (1) †S. macrota modified its migration behavior to ameliorate environmental changes related to the Drake Passage opening, or (2) the local climate change was small and gateway opening had little impact.

[SEPP Comment: Estimates of opening of the Drake Passage range from 49 million to 17 million years ago. Based on a sparse database, this paper suggests the passage opened about 45 to 43 million years ago. A study in Marine Geology suggests full opening about 23 million years ago. The issue is significant because the full opening of the passage set up the Antarctic circumpolar circulation, a period of glaciation and a colder period.

This research brings up a problem in modern climate science. Rather than a time-consuming literature review, use an model to produce the results you want without validating the model.]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0025322777900457

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/books/book/1939/chapter/107596068/The-Oligocene-Miocene-boundary-cause-and]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

A Nation That Is Afraid Of Its People

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 2, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/02/a-nation-that-is-afraid-of-its-people/

A Couple Of Very Safe Bets For The Next Four Years

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 31, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-1-31-a-couple-of-very-safe-bets-for-the-next-four-years

“World carbon emissions will increase, not decrease, over the next four years.

“It is almost impossible for this prediction to be wrong.  The countries that are obsessed with reducing greenhouse gas emissions — along with the U.S., it’s the European Union, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — may seem like all the important countries of the world; but the fact is that they have only a small minority of the population.  In the aggregate, the named countries come to fewer than 800 million people, in a world now approaching 8 billion.”

This Week In Climate History

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 4, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/02/this-week-in-climate-history/

Video “History is overflowing with evidence that climate alarmism is a cult, not a science.”

Environmental Activism as Carbon Imperialism: Nightmare for the Poor

By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Feb 1, 2021

Are you ready for the climate lockdowns?

It’s only a matter of time

By Stephen L. Miller, Spectator.US, Feb 5, 2021

https://spectator.us/topic/ready-climate-lockdowns-environment/?utm_source=Spectator+USA+Email+Signup&utm_campaign=50eae9a16e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_8_31_2020_19_27_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_edf2ae2373-50eae9a16e-154770766&mc_cid=50eae9a16e&mc_eid=692499491a

Climate, COVID Crisis Opportunities Used to Reset a New World Order

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Feb 3, 2021

https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/covid-fauci-schwab-trudeau/2021/02/03/id/1008517/

“In a Sept. 3 co-authored article in the science journal Cell, Fauci wrote that we must empower the U.N. and other international organizations to ‘’rebuild the infrastructure of human existence, from cities to homes to workplaces, to water and sewer systems, to recreational and gathering venues.’”

After Paris!

Cop26 dream team: The people setting the climate agenda on seven key issues

By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Feb 4, 2021

Cop26 dream team: The people setting the climate agenda on seven key issues (climatechangenews.com)

Change in US Administrations

Biden: ‘We can’t wait any longer’ to address climate crisis

By Matthew Daly and Ellen Knickmeyer , AP, Jan 28, 2021

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-technology-biden-cabinet-climate-climate-change-01c131fb04f2720eee5146388e9fc783

“Biden also directed U.S. agencies to use science and evidence-based decision-making in federal rules and announced a U.S.-hosted climate leaders summit on Earth Day, April 22.” [Boldface added]

Biden Presidency: The Dopes Have Taken Full Control

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 28, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-1-28-biden-presidency-the-dopes-have-taken-full-control

How Fast Will Biden Need To Move On Climate? Really, Really Fast

By Lauren Sommer, NPR, Feb 2, 2021

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/02/963014373/how-fast-will-biden-need-to-move-on-climate-really-really-fast

“‘We need to increase tree cover five times faster than we are,’ said John Kerry, Biden’s special envoy for climate. ‘We need to ramp up renewable energy six times faster. And the transition to electric vehicles needs to take place at a rate 22 times faster.’”

John Bolton: Biden’s climate obsession may strengthen China and alienate Western allies

By John Bolton, The Wall Street Journal, Via GWPF, Feb 5, 2021

China Uses Climate Change To Threaten Joe Biden Administration

By John Feng, Newsweek, Feb 2, 2021

https://www.newsweek.com/china-uses-climate-change-threaten-joe-biden-administration-1566056

Kerry saves the debate

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Apparently, Kerry realizes that modern society needs reliable electricity, and to abandon hydrocarbon energy, it most go nuclear. The feasibility is a matter of permitting and costs.]

Problems in the Orthodoxy

France found guilty of failing to meet Paris Agreement pledge

By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Feb 3, 2021

G20 Countries’ Climate Policies Fail to Make the Grade on Paris Promises

Editorial, BloombergNEF, Feb 1, 2021

https://about.bnef.com/blog/g20-countries-climate-policies-fail-to-make-the-grade-on-paris-promises/

So you admit you were lying

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

“So let us trash our own people or the planet gets it. Strange priorities you have there.”

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Effects of Elevated CO2 on the Development and Fecundity of an Aphid Pest

Navarro, E.C., Lam, S.K. and Trebicki, P. 2020. Elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen impact wheat and its aphid pest. Frontiers in Plant Science 11: 605337, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2020.605337. Feb 5, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/feb/a3.php

“However a major challenge in meeting such needs is overcoming food production losses caused by pests. And in this regard, they note the total loss of food crops due to insect pests amounts to an estimated 30-40% of annual global food production. Thus, reducing these losses will go a long way toward meeting the increasing food needs of society. What is more, these production gains will occur naturally, without the aid of insecticide use, the latter of which application over time can lead to harmful chemical buildup unintended environmental problems.”

[SEPP Comment: Apparently, it is too much to expect true environmentalists would be celebrating the benefits of increasing atmospheric CO2.]

The Interactive Effects of CO2 and Light Intensity on Lettuce Growth

Esmaili, M., Aliniaeifard, S., Mashal, M., Ghorbanzadeh, P., Seif, M., Gavilan, M.U., Carrillo, F.F., Lastochkina, O. and Li, T. 2020. CO2 enrichment and increasing light intensity till a threshold level, enhance growth and water use efficiency of lettuce plants in controlled environment. Climate Dynamics 44: 3469-3479. Feb 1, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/feb/a1.php

Models v. Observations

Scientists say (6)

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

Link to paper: The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability

By Dann M Mitchell, et al. Environmental Research Letters, Oct 13, 2020

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7

[SEPP Comment: All the models reviewed perform poorly. The Canadian model is the worst.]

Unexpected ice

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean defies predictions.

By Natasha Vizcarra, Earth Data, Dec 28, 2020

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/unexpected-ice

Link to pdf: Unexpected ice

By Natasha Vizcarra, Earth Data, Dec 28, 2020

“Scientists have been watching this feedback loop of warming and melting in the Arctic. To them, Arctic sea ice is a reliable indicator of a changing global climate.]

[SEPP Comment: Sad comment indicating failure to examine history and believing model outputs instead.]

Measurement Issues — Surface

A New Millennial Global Surface Temperature Reconstruction

By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 3, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Discussing the new paper by Nicola Scafetta. There have been efforts to calculate the effects of CO2 and other greenhouse gases since John Tyndall announced the results of his experiments in infrared absorption and emission in 1859. Based on his understanding of Tyndall’s work, in 1896 Svante Arrhenius claimed CO2 emissions would warm the earth significantly. A decade later he significantly reduced his calculations, possibly after recognizing that he misunderstood Tyndall’s work.]

Tokyo, Hachijō-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline

By Kirye and Pierre, No Tricks Zone, Feb 3, 2021

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2021: +0.12 deg. C (new base period)

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 2, 2021

Link to Global temperature Report

By Staff, Earth System Science Center, UAH, January 2021

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

Robust Measurements Show The Northern Hemisphere’s Atmosphere Cooled -0.6°C In 5 Years 60 Years Ago

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 4, 2021

[SEPP Comment; According to the abstract: “Between May 1958 and April 1963 the mean temperature of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere fell by about 0.60° C. The data which led to this conclusion are presented in this article.” https://www.nature.com/articles/242310a0

The excerpt states: “…from all available daily meteorological soundings during the five-year period starting on May 1, 1958.” The measurements are not comprehensive.]

Changing Weather

UK Daily Rainfall Extremes

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2021

“I do not claim any climatological significance in any of this. But what it does show though is that there is no evidence that a warmer atmosphere is driving more extreme rainfall.”

Changing Climate

To a scientist with a hammer

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations

Global Warming, It’s Always a Shore Thing

By Salvatore Babones, Quadrant, Feb 4, 2021

“Noah and Utnapishtim both embraced the Great Flood, even relished it, and adapted to it. Of course, they were both responding to orders received directly from God. We have only the Word of the IPCC. Venetians, man your gondole!” [Plural of gondola]

Changing Seas

A Mixed Up Mixed Layer

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 2, 2021

Naming a First Old Porites, Craig

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 5, 2021

Scientists combine, organize 40 years-worth of data on coral spawning

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Jan 29, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientists_combine_organize_40_years_worth_of_data_on_coral_spawning_999.html

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Greenland: “A New Study Says”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 5, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/02/greenland-a-new-study-says/

[SEPP Comment: Glaciers were disappearing in 1952, 1939, 1903! See links immediately below.]

Greenland is careening toward a critical tipping point for ice loss

By Mindy Weisberger, Live Science, Feb 1, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.livescience.com/greenland-ice-loss-threshold-2055.html

Link to paper: A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

By B. Noël et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Jan 19, 2021

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL090471

“As a result, we can more accurately project the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss and its contribution to sea-level rise,” Noël said.”

[SEPP Comment: Did it reach a tipping point when the Vikings farmed parts of it? The experts cannot project if the current phase will continue for 5 years 50 years or 100 years!]

Antarctica’s ice melt isn’t consistent, new analysis shows

Press Release by Laura Arenschield, The Ohio State University, Feb 1, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-antarctica-ice-isnt-analysis.html

Link to paper: Complex Patterns of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Change Resolved by Time‐Dependent Rate Modeling of GRACE and GRACE Follow‐On Observations

By Lei Wang, James L. Davis, and Ian M. Howat, Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 11, 2020

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090961

Changing Earth

Scientists Discover Plate Tectonics… Again

By David Middleton, WUWT, Feb 5, 2021

Un-Science or Non-Science?

By the late 21st century, the number of people suffering extreme droughts will double

Increase in water scarcity will affect food security and escalate human migration and conflict, scientists say

Press Release by NSF, Feb 2, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=302035&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to paper: Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

By Yadu Pokhrel, et al. Nature Climate Change, Jan 11, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00972-w

Lowering Standards

Back to the Dark Ages, Says New Report

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 3, 2021

“What these new age hippies really want is to return us all to the dark ages!

“Worse still, they want to condemn the third world to a life of poverty.”

[SEPP Comment: Discussing a review by “Prof Sir Partha Dasgupta, of the University of Cambridge, says prosperity has come at a ‘devastating’ cost to the natural world.”]

Dunce’s Cap For Slingo!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 2, 2021

“Julia Slingo, the chief scientist at the Met Office”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Harrabin Complaint [About Harrabin to the BBC]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

A team of climatologists is studying how to minimize errors in observed climate trend

Press Release by Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Feb 3, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-team-climatologists-minimize-errors-climate.html

From Kepshire: “(a) only more rubbish is obtained by digitizing rubbish,

(b) there is no agreed definition for global temperature anomaly (GTA),

(c) each team that provides GTA estimates uses a unique definition which it changes several times during each year, and

(d) if global temperature anomaly were an agreed parameter then there is no possibility of a calibration standard for determinations of it.”

BBC Wants Iceland To Freeze Again

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 1, 2021

“Dr Baxter is a lecturer in Communication Design, whatever that is. But he obviously does not know the first thing about glaciers or Icelandic history:”

Sea level will rise faster than previously thought

News Release, University of Copenhagen – Faculty of Science, Feb 2, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210202164530.htm

Links to DOI did not work.

[SEPP Comment: Vague title – thought by whom, Jim Hansen with six-meter exponential rise by the end of the century?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

The Shocking Climate Graph @climateofgavin Doesn’t Want You To See

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 3, 2021

“What Wei Zhang has illustrated is almost a perfect correlation between adjustments to the surface temperature record made by NASA GISS (and Gavin Schmidt) and the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. They’ve artificially cooled the past prior to 1960 (about the time Mauna Loa CO2 measurements started) and artificially warmed 1960 to the present.”

Alarmist Fantasies Exposed: UN Gets Hit For Fraudulent, Misleading Press Release On Natural Disasters

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 2, 2021

[SEPP Comment: According to its website: “As the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDRR brings governments, partners and communities together to reduce disaster risk and losses to ensure a safer, more sustainable future.” TWTW no longer considers exaggeration in UN reports as unusual, particular concerning weather-caused disasters. https://www.undrr.org/about-undrr ]

Climate Change Making Atmospheric River Storms Stronger Claim–Not Supported By Actual Data

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 2, 2021

“The author, Tom Corringham, a Postdoctoral Scholar in Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography, admits that his research is confined to economics and atmospheric science. Consequently, his work is at best theoretical, and should not be used to make unsubstantiated claims about what is actually happening.”

Speaking of decimal places

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

“And once again one must beware the hypnotic effect of the pseudo-precision.”

Trickery: Fake animal ‘tragedy’ boosted globalist ‘Great Reset’

Davos billionaires in tears over natural behavior blamed on ‘climate change’

By Art Moore, World Net Daily, Jan 31, 2021

Expanding the Orthodoxy

NASA Announces New Role of Senior Climate Advisor

By Marc Etkind, NASA, Feb 3, 2021

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-new-role-of-senior-climate-advisor

New SEC senior advisor will specialize in climate change, ESG

By Aaron Nicodemus, Compliance Week, Feb 1, 2021

https://www.complianceweek.com/regulatory-policy/new-sec-senior-advisor-will-specialize-in-climate-change-esg/29995.article

Report urges overall strategy for national security and climate crisis

Press Release by University of Pennsylvania, Feb 3, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-urges-strategy-national-climate-crisis.html

Link to report: Lessons from the Arctic: The Need for Intersectoral Climate Security Policy

By Alexandra A.K. Meise. Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law, University of Pennsylvania, Dec 2020

https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/11334-cerl-climate-security-policy-paper-meise

“Defining Climate’s Threats and Opportunities”

The Diplomat: Military Preparedness for Climate Disasters will Limit Scope for CO2 Savings

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, feb 4, 2021

Questioning European Green

HANDS OFF OUR SAUSAGES No10 slaps down plans for ‘meat tax’ after outrage from MPs over green agenda

By Natasha Clark, The Sun, Feb 4, 2021

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13949302/meat-tax-boris-johnson-green-agenda/

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Homeowners Beware of Climate Change Regulations

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 2, 2021

Green Jobs

Number of people employed in German renewables sector has halved since 2011

By Benjamin Wehrmann, Clean Energy Wire, Feb 4, 2021

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/number-people-employed-german-renewables-sector-has-halved-2011

Biden’s ‘Green Energy Jobs’ Really Means ‘No Energy Jobs’ And ‘Low-Paying Energy Jobs’

By Mike Pasko, The Federalist, Jan 27, 2021

https://thefederalist.com/2021/01/27/bidens-green-energy-jobs-really-mean-no-energy-jobs-and-low-paying-energy-jobs/

Northern Powerhomes Want £143bn of Your Money!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 3, 2021

‘The report naturally boasts about creating 77000 jobs, but these would come at the incredible cost of £1.8 million each!

‘It also claims a GVA (Gross Value Added) of £3.8 billion, but this is fantasy economics, which does not account for the fact that the money has to be taken from elsewhere.

“Truly the economics of the mad house!”

Non-Green Jobs

Siemens slashes 7,800 jobs for green transition

By Saleha Riaz, Yahoo, Feb 2, 2021 [H/t GWPF]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/siemens-slashes-7800-jobs-as-green-energy-changes-course-for-company-084551054.html

Funding Issues

The EU-China investment agreement is a disaster for the West

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2021

“It has been evident for a while that the hard up EU is desperate to get hold of Chinese investment, but I suspect part of this latest move is to get China onside with EU climate policy. If so, they are making a huge mistake, because China will simply carry on doing what is in its own interest.”

Litigation Issues

The Climate Change Lawsuits Against Big Oil, Explained

By Daniel Farber, The Appeal, Jan 29, 2021

“However, if the litigation ever reaches the stage of discovery, and the produced information becomes available to the public, we will learn more about what oil companies knew about climate change and how they influenced public perceptions and debate. The release of such information is likely to result in bad publicity that will only encourage divestment movements, make oil company stock less appealing, and further undermine the industry.”

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Raise fuel duty, Rishi, and watch the Red Wall votes evaporate

By Howard Cox, The Conservative Woman, Feb 3, 2021

[SEPP Comment: The Red Wall refers to the Labor Party heartlands, the Midlands.]

UK Carbon Tax to Drive Up the Cost of Gas Heating, Milk and Beef

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 5, 2021

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/05/uk-carbon-tax-to-drive-up-the-cost-of-gas-heating-milk-and-beef/

“BAPEN Publishes Results of Biggest Malnutrition Survey Ever Undertaken (Scotland), last updated October 2020, shows malnutrition in patients admitted in English hospitals running at 30%.”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Tesla’s dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn’t come from selling cars

By Chris Isidore, CTV News, Jan 31, 2021

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/tesla-s-dirty-little-secret-its-net-profit-doesn-t-come-from-selling-cars-1.5289810

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA’s Transparency Rule: Post Mortem

By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Feb 5, 2021

EPA’s Transparency Rule: Post Mortem – Competitive Enterprise Institute (cei.org)

Energy Issues – Non-US

Ofgem condemned for misleading the public about energy price rises

By Staff, Global Warming Policy Forum, Feb 5, 2021

“’To blame ‘the market’ for what is effectively a manifest failure of ever more expensive Net Zero policies is an attempt to deflect attention from the true culprits behind rising energy poverty. If Mr Brearley and Ofgem really wanted to do something for hard-pressed consumers they would tackle the ballooning effect of climate policies.’ GWPF director Benny Peiser said.”

Cumbria’s New Coal Mine

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2021

How China could turn off Britain’s lights

Businesses loyal to Beijing are taking over our nuclear power and electricity systems

By Clive Hamilton, UnHerd, Jan 25, 2021

Washington’s Control of Energy

Shafting The Poor

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 5, 2021

Return of King Coal?

China’s Coal Boom: New coal power plant capacity in 2020 grew more than 3 times rest of the World’s

By Staff, Reuters, Feb 3, 2021

In 2020 China built three times more coal power than the rest of the world

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 5, 2021

Link to report: China Dominates 2020 Coal Development

By Christine Shearer and Lauri Myllyvirta, Global Energy Monitor, Feb 2021

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Net Zero fiasco: Nuclear winter for Britain as power plants close

By Staff, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Jan 31, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Most forest biomass worse for climate than fossil fuels

By Staff Writers, Brussels Belgium (SPX). Jan 29, 2021

https://www.biofueldaily.com/reports/Most_forest_biomass_worse_for_climate_than_fossil_fuels_999.html

Link to report: The use of woody biomass for energy production in the EU

By Camia Gluntoli, et al. Joint Research Centre (JRC), EU, 2021

The Crippling Cost of Hydrogen

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 1, 2021

“The UK currently consumes 2789 billion mmbtu a year. An increase in cost from about £7 to £32 per mmbtu, as Timera estimate, would imply the annual cost would rise from £19bn to £89bn.

“Naturally proponents claim that costs of electrolysis will miraculously drop to competitive levels by 2050. There again, pigs might fly!”

[SEPP Comment: See two links below.]

Hydrogen to cut Swedish national GHG-emissions by 30 per cent

By Staff Writers, Stockholm, Sweden (SPX) Feb 01, 2021

https://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Hydrogen_to_cut_Swedish_national_GHG_emissions_by_30_per_cent_999.html

Hydrogen-powered drives for e-scooters

By Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Techxplore, Feb 1, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://techxplore.com/news/2021-02-hydrogen-powered-e-scooters.html

“This provides a safe way of storing hydrogen in a chemical form that is easy to transport and replenish without the need for an expensive network of filling stations.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Salt battery design overcomes ‘bump’ in the road to help electric cars go the extra mile

News Release by University of Nottingham, Feb 1, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kekpshire]

https://techxplore.com/news/2021-02-salt-battery-road-electric-cars.html

Link to paper: Quasi-solid-state electrolyte for rechargeable high-temperature molten salt iron-air battery

By Shiyu Zhang, et al. Energy Storage Materials, March 2021

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2405829720304268?via%3Dihub

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Toyota CEO Agrees With Elon Musk: We Don’t Have Enough Electricity to Electrify All the Cars

By Bryan Preston, PJ Media, Dec 21, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/bryan-preston/2020/12/21/toyota-ceo-agrees-with-elon-musk-we-dont-have-enough-electricity-to-electrify-all-the-cars-n1222999

Electric Vehicles and Their Drawbacks, Chapter II

By Geoffrey Pohanka Real Clear Energy, Feb 2, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/02/02/electric_vehicles_and_their_drawbacks_chapter_ii_658924.html

[SEPP Comment: The third-generation car dealer realizes you cannot believe everything the EV salesman says about charging times!]

Not your father’s Oldsmobile

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 3, 2021

Environmental Industry

German green group branded a Russian ‘puppet’ over Nord Stream II gas pipeline

By Staff, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Jan 31, 2021

Other Scientific News

Novel photocatalyst effectively turns carbon dioxide into methane fuel with light

News Release, City University of Hong Kong, Feb 2, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210202113725.htm

[SEPP Comment: Artificial photosynthesis which may become useful if oil and natural gas “run out.”]

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Climate change ‘key’ in Covid-19 spreading to humans – study

By Staff, Russian Times, Feb 5, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.rt.com/news/514751-climate-change-spreading-covid-19/

Link to paper: Shifts in global bat diversity suggest a possible role of climate change in the emergence of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2

By Robert M. Beyer, Andrea Manic, and Camilo Morac, Science of The Total Environment, Jan 26, 2021

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721004812

[SEPP Comment: And if they tweak their study, the researchers could claim that climate change caused the far deadlier flu of 1918-19. It may have even caused WW I!]

John Kerry Confronted Over His Private Jet Use — His Response Says It All

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 3, 2021

Video

That Way Madness Lies

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 2, 2021

ARTICLES

Eurocrats Are From Pluto

Team Biden will be disappointed if it mistakes them for starry-eyed idealists.

By Walter Russell Mead, WSJ, Feb 1, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurocrats-are-from-pluto-11612222054?mod=opinion_lead_pos10

TWTW Summary: The columnist and editor of “The American Interest” writes:

“Sooner or later every new presidential administration experiences that sinking feeling that one of its big ideas may not be working well. For Team Biden, that moment arrived last week as Germany, with widespread support in the European Union, made clear that Europe has no real interest in countering either Russia or China.

Warning against the ‘building of blocs,’ Chancellor Angela Merkel told her virtual audience at the World Economic Forum that she thought Europe should not join with either the U.S. or China against the other. Coming on top of an earlier European refusal to defer moving on an EU-China investment accord until the incoming Biden administration could weigh in on the matter, Europe has made its views crystal clear. Uighurs, Hong Kong and the growing military threats in and around the South China Sea matter much less to European policy makers than their commercial interests do.

Alexei Navalny’s challenge to President Vladimir Putin has likewise prompted a European response that is less than robust. As democracy activists and human-rights organizations on both sides of the Atlantic sought to pressure Western governments to do something about Mr. Navalny’s detention and the arrests across Russia, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs announced that he was pressing ahead with a previously planned visit to Moscow for meetings with Mr. Putin. Light wrist slaps may follow, but little more.

For starry-eyed American liberals—in whose rich fantasies Europe’s chancelleries are inhabited by committed idealists—this may come as a shock. Europeans aren’t from Mars, and some may hail from Venus, as Robert Kagan put it in his 2004 essay ‘Of Paradise and Power.’ But those who rule the Continent come mostly from Pluto, a cold and remote planet named for the ancient god of the underworld—and of wealth.

It’s a mistake to see Europeans as idealists merely because they like multilateralism and discount the importance of military power. Multilateralism is a realist program for Europe, not an idealist one. Even the largest European states know that they are too small to figure as great powers on their own; they must work together if they want to sway Washington and Beijing. As Mr. Kagan noted, they also understand that a rules-based international order grounded in multilateral institutions increases European world influence.

Most Europeans today believe military power simply doesn’t do them much good. For the large majority of European countries that don’t share borders with Russia, Moscow doesn’t look like a major military threat—China even less so. When serious Europeans think about security issues, they worry first about migration, cybersecurity and outside influence—which includes Moscow, Beijing and, yes, Washington. Fears that Russia will attack Lithuania or that Beijing will invade Taiwan come much further down the list—well behind European concerns over America’s ability to force other countries to follow its lead on economic sanctions.

Liberals and idealists often dismiss commercial realists as cynics, chiding them for putting Nord Stream II over Mr. Navalny, Gucci over the Uighurs. There is something to that. But a German trade negotiator trying to keep the exports flowing from Westphalia to Wuhan might retort that fighting far-right German populism by seeking jobs for German workers isn’t an ignoble objective, and perhaps not something for the U.S. to obstruct.”

After discussing political polls, the author concludes:

“If Germany’s Greens do well enough in approaching national elections to enter the governing coalition, the trans-Atlantic gap may narrow. But overall, Russia is too weak and China is too far away to frighten Europeans into a policy rethink.

That could change, and a more threatening Sino-Russian alliance could drive the Old World back into the arms of the New. But until then, whether the U.S. president is an angry America Firster or an ingratiating liberal multilateralist, European commercial realism is here to stay. Where European commercial interests diverge from American geopolitical priorities, the U.S. will have to get used to Europe saying no.”

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/2LyYmHA

February 8, 2021 at 04:51AM