The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murray Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit shows since 1945 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4.  This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C.  Previously the 1994-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C.  Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1945.

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate.  On the contrary, all of the warming since 1945 came from three episodic events, associated with oceanic cycles. Moreover, the UAH record shows that the effects of the last one are now gone.

The monthly anomaly at 2020 year end is nearly the 0.18C average since 1995, an ENSO neutral year prior to the second warming event discussed above. With a quiet sun and cooling oceans, the prospect is for cooler times ahead.

via Science Matters

January 19, 2021 at 10:01AM