Daily Archives: 10. January 2021

Snowing hard as far south as Austin, Texas

Ain’t global warming just grand?

This is what it looks like in my back yard today, south of Dallas/Fort Worth.

So far I would estimate that we’ve had around 6 inches of snow, but it’s very slushy because the ground is so warm that most of it is melting.

A Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service remains in effect through 6am Monday.0

Even though Austin doesn’t show up on this Weather Service map, one of my readers from Austin says it is also snowing there.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

The post Snowing hard as far south as Austin, Texas appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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January 10, 2021 at 02:32PM

Wot? No Gas?

By Paul Homewood

https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/

Currently the National Grid shows demand for natural gas peaking at about 420 mcm (million cubic meters/day) in the UK. Over the day as a whole, it will probably average out at around 350 mcm.

How much is this in energy terms?

1 mcm = 10.55 GWh, so 350 mcm equals 3.69 TWh/day, equating to 154 GW. At peak of 420 mcm, this goes up to 185 GW.

About a quarter of this goes for gas fired generation, but even assuming this is no longer needed, these amounts would still be massive.

So how can so much energy from natural gas be replaced in a decarbonised world?

If we were to opt for full electrification, we would need to quadruple current generating capacity, clearly not a practical option, even before we addressed the problems of surplus generation in summer.

To produce this from wind power would require an additional 462 GW of nameplate capacity, assuming 40% loading and sufficient flexibility for period of intermittency. In essence, all of this would be idle in summer months, effectively doubling its cost.

What about hydrogen?

Assuming an energy efficiency ratio for electrolysis of 75% (let me know if there is a more accurate figure), daily demand of 3.69 TWh would need input of 4.92 TWh, equivalent to 205 GW. (And this assumes we can manage intra day peaks in demand).

As this electrolysis would have to use wind power, with an capacity factor of 40 % say, that would require offshore wind capacity of 512 GW, on top of other requirements. We currently have about 10 GW!

This capacity would have to run flat out in winter months, and idle for summer, as we have already seen that the amount of natural gas storage is tiny in terms of seasonal requirements.

Finally there are heat pumps, which have a higher energy efficiency than burning gas or electrical resistance heat. However, at these period of peak demand in winter, heat pump efficiency is at its lowest. Given that heating only accounts for less than a half of natural gas consumption, additional capacity needed would still be around 150 GW.

Whenever capacity issues are raised, the red herrings of storage, smart meters and EV to Grid are usually thrown in. These are utterly irrelevant, as they only shuffle demand around between different times of day.

As the above analysis shows, you cannot get a quart into a pint pot. No matter how you cut the cake, we still need huge amounts of electricity to replace the loss of natural gas from our energy mix.

And that’s before we even get onto electric cars!

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January 10, 2021 at 01:18PM

LA Times Demands a Fossil Fuel “Non Proliferation Treaty” to Combat Climate Change

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Los Angeles City Council is disgusted at the California State Government’s failure to limit the supply of fossil fuel. But they haven’t taken any steps to ban the sale of gasoline or other fossil fuel products in Greater Los Angeles.

Op-Ed: Treat fossil fuels like nukes. Endorse a new nonproliferation treaty

By JACQUES LESLIEJAN. 4, 20213 AM

The Los Angeles City Council is poised to endorse a call for a global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Approval could make Los Angeles the first U.S. city — New York is also in the running — to sign on to the treaty resolution. Introduced in November by Councilman Paul Koretz, it won unanimous support in committee and awaits likely passage by the full council in the new year.

The treaty would do just what its name says: Signatory governments would agree to stop further expansion of the fossil fuel industry within their boundaries. A U.N. report released Dec. 2 indicates just how imperative that step is: To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal set in the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, global emissions would have to drop 6% a year between now and 2030; alarmingly, nations instead project an average annual increase of 2% a year.

…

California’s failure to limit supply makes state leaders’ claims to global climate leadership questionable. The state’s most recent two governors, Jerry Brown and now Gavin Newsom, have acknowledged the gravity of the climate crisis, but their administrations have both issued new oil well permits at a rate of 1,000 to 3,000 a year, according to FracTracker Alliance. In fact, new drilling permits in the first nine months of 2020 jumped to 1,646, an increase of 137% over the same period in 2019. The governors’ disinterest in stopping new permits is attributable to the continuing power of the oil industry’s lobbying and campaign contributions, which exert a strong influence on both parties.

…

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-01-04/fossil-fuel-nonproliferation-treaty-los-angeles-city-council-climate-change-paris-agreement

Frankly I’m shocked at the climate hypocrisy of the Los Angeles City Council.

Instead of wasting time complaining about Newsom or signing empty treaties, they should make the first move, and ban the sale of gasoline and fossil fuel products in the city of Los Angeles.

By showing us how well Los Angeles can function without gasoline or the evil products of fossil fuel, LA will surely inspire others with their climate leadership.

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January 10, 2021 at 12:38PM