Bring it on. Average August temperature in London is 22C, and much of the UK is at cooler higher latitudes than London is. A long way to go to even get close to Mediterranean-style summers, and some ‘heat deaths’ could well be due to lack of air conditioning as much as the weather itself. Deaths from cold weather are more the issue in the UK. Researchers today like to assume that temperature trends go on forever in one direction, but forget the ‘experts’ were forecasting drastic global cooling back in the 1970s, after 30 years of lack of warming. A 40 year study period is short for claiming trends, hence words like ‘could’ and ‘projected’ to hedge their bets.
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The U.K. could be facing a future of extreme heatwaves according to a new study in which scientists mapped almost 40 years’ worth of trends to project what lies ahead, says Phys.org.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, draws on datasets from the Met Office’s U.K. Climate Projections, specifically UKCP18, which contains global climate model projections and simulations from around the world, as well as high resolution climate model projections on a local and regional scale for the U.K. and Europe.
Between 2016 and 2019 there were more than 3,400 excess deaths in England as a result of heatwaves.
Researchers from the University of Bristol say that the projected future increase in temperature extremes as suggested by the trends mapped with the help of UKCP18 represents a future risk to well-being in the UK.
Important aspects of heat extremes were investigated in the UKCP18 data, including the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heatwave events and different measures of heat stress that account for humidity—a factor which adds to discomfort on hot days.
By comparing the modeled heat extremes to observational datasets, the researchers are able to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the UKCP18 simulations.
The study, conducted in collaboration with the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, concludes that U.K. summer temperatures, and extreme hot days in particular, are projected to warm up to 50 percent faster than the average rate of global warming.
The research team are now exploring how to work with regional policymakers to understand the implications at localized socio-economic levels.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
January 5, 2021 at 11:39AM