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by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past 10 (!) weeks

Politics-free thread, please!

Climate science

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 [link]

How changing content of clouds could influence climate change [link]

Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing [link]

Status and outlook for the climate change scenario framework [link]

Forcing of western tropical Sought Atlantic sea surface temperate across three glacial-interglacial cycles [link]

Earth greening mitigates surface warming by enhancing the efficiency in heat and water transfer (i.e., aerodynamic resistance). https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/47/eabb1981…

A very strong stratospheric polar vortex and other record-breaking phenomena made the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2019–2020 one of extremes. [link]

Oreskes:Severe weather event attribution: Why values won’t go away [link]

Unraveling glacial hydroclimate in the Indo-Pacific warm pool [link]

Interannual variability in the North America carbon cycle [link]

Anthropogenic stresses on the worlds big rivers [link]

Geothermal heat persistently warms the ocean’s bottom ~2000 m by 0.3-0.5°C via seafloor vents. With horizontal circulation heat accumulates over time. The abyssal ocean was 6-10°C warmer 9k yrs ago and still much warmer 1k yrs ago. [link]

Combining modern and paleoceanographic perspectives on ocean heat uptake [link]

Coherent stream flow variability in Monsoon Asia over the past eight centuries links to oceanic drivers [link]

Moist heat stress extremes in India enhanced by irrigation [link]

How large does a large ensemble need to be? [link]

Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient [link]

Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reduction [link]

Decadal and multi-decadal natural variability in European temperatures [link]

No net warming in Sweden over the last 210 years [link]

East Antartica has cooled substantially since 1986 [link]

Koutsoyiannis:  Atmospheric temperature and CO2: hen-or-egg causality? [link]

Oligocene much warmer than previously thought; this is difficult to explain & has implications for ice sheet stability. [link]

Water on Mars: discovery of three buried lakes [link]

“This is why hurricanes are bigger and longer-lasting and more intense than before.” New study shows that ocean stratification is increasing. [link]New synthesis article on ocean acidification & changing seawater chemistry from rising CO2 and the impacts on biological organisms, marine ecosystems, people, fisheries & aquaculture https://annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083019….New study finds the modulation of cloud cover that drives decadal- and century-scale climate changes is thought to be either driven by internal variability or (more likely) by interplanetary factors operating within a 60-year cycle. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL089954….Technology, impacts and policy

Michael Kelly: Warming is not the only threat [link]

Michael Kelly:  Until we get a proper roadmap, Net Zero is a goal without a plan [link]

MIsconceptions of global catastrophe [link]

Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates.  The cure is worse than the disease? [link]

Compact nuclear fusion reactor is very likely to work [link]

BTI:  How to stop the wildfires [link]

Extreme weather and marriage among girls and women in Bangladesh [link]

America needs a modern electric grid [link]

Do we focus too much on IAMs & scenarios? Do alternative methods need a more prominent role? [link]

“The UN Secretary General António Guterres’s call for India to give up coal immediately and reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 is a call to de-industrialise the country and abandon the population to a permanent low-development trap” [link]

The invisible elephant in the room with a Green New Deal is the staggering quantity of stuff that needs to be mined in order to build all the green machines, and where that mining and processing happens. https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/27/green-new-deal-laws-of-physics/…

Michael Pollan: The sickness in our food supply [link]

Room-temperature superconductivity [link]

Pielke Jr:  Global CO2 emissions are on the brink of a long plateau [link]

Re-imagining the Colorado River by exploring extreme events [link]

Plan for climate solutions takes Georgia-specific approach [link]

G20 countries projected to miss 1.5C targets by wide margin [link]

Maybe the narrative that dense cities are better for the environment may be off. Here’s new research from Australia. http://newgeography.com/content/006840-high-density-and-sustainability

About science and scientists

Perceptions of stereotypes applied to women who publicly communicate their STEM work [link]

Academic air travel has limited influence on professional success [link]

Science and politics really don’t mix [link]

Kerry Emanuel:  The perils of computing too much and thinking too little [link]

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto [link]

If you average your own best guess with your best guess from the perspective of someone you often disagree with, you’ll tend to be more accurate. Disagreement is good! https://researchgate.net/publication/337275911_Taking_a_disagreeing_perspective_improves_the_accuracy_of_people’s_quantitative_estimates…

Are climate scientists being too cautious when linking extreme weather to climate change? https://phys.org/news/2020-10-climate-scientists-cautious-linking-extreme.html…

Cancel culture has captured campus [link]

Beyond Kuhn and Feyerabend [link]

Pielke Jr:  A ‘sedative’ for science policy [link]

Myside bias [link]

via Climate Etc.

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November 27, 2020 at 11:13AM