Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow.
Starke Vulkanausbrüche, die sich im ersten Jahrtausend n. Chr. ereigneten, hatten schwerwiegende Auswirkungen auf das Klima.
Zu dieser Schlussfolgerung kamen russische Wissenschaftler, berichtet Dendrochronologia.
Den Forschern zufolge veränderten die Vulkane die Wetterbedingungen auf der nördlichen Hemisphäre. Einschließlich des Klimas von Sibirien.
Mitarbeiter der Sibirischen Föderalen Universität führten arboretumronologische Analysen durch, untersuchten die Jahresringe alter Bäume.
Als Ergebnis haben Wissenschaftler mehrere Bereiche identifiziert, in denen die auffälligsten Klimaveränderungen im ersten Jahrtausend n. Chr. aufgetreten sind.
“Die Jahresringe der Bäume behielten den Abdruck des kalten Schnappschusses bei, der durch vulkanische Aktivität verursacht wurde.
Wenn Vulkane ausbrechen, sammeln sich ihre Aerosole und Sulfate in der Atmosphäre an, wo sie mehrere Jahre bestehen können, wodurch die Intensität der Sonneneinstrahlung reduziert wird und zur Kühlung der Luft beiträgt. Dies kann sogar die globale Luftzirkulation beeinflussen”,so die Forscher.
Ungewöhnliche Kälteschnappschüsse traten in 536, 541 und 542 n. Chr. auf. Damals änderte sich das Klima in den regionen Europa, Nordatlantik und Ostasien. In Zeiten kalten Wetters sank die Temperatur hier um etwa vier Grad Celsius.
Officials at the Federal University of Siberia conducted a dendrochronological analysis, studying the annual rings of ancient trees. As a result, scientists have identified several areas in which the most noticeable cooling in the northern hemisphere occurred in the first millennium AD.
The Russians scientists concluded that the powerful volcanic eruptions that occurred in the first millennium AD had a serious impact on the climate, reports the publication Dendrochronologia.
The tree rings retained the cold wave caused by volcanic activity.
When volcanoes erupt, their aerosols and sulfates accumulate in the atmosphere, where they can persist for several years, reducing the intensity of solar radiation and contributing to the cooling of the air. This can even affect global circulation, the researchers said.
Abnormal cold snaps occurred in 536, 541 and 542 AD. Then, the climate changed in parts of Europe, North Atlantic and East Asia. During those cold waves, the temperature dropped by about 4°C.
“If Bill Gates knows about CO2 and volcanoes, he will design ‘mega stoppers’ to plug the volcanoes and save the earth from “hoax” global warming,” says Martin. “Volcanoes are producers, really CO2 producers. LOL”
Not about your backyard shed. If you are tired of COVID and elections, perhaps you may like Sheds…
Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser
Dear Readers, this is not about your backyard shed where you may store implements for other seasons of the years, either gone by or yet to come. Rather, it’s about the shed antlers of deer and moose that you may find while wandering around in the boreal forests of this continent.
This is about some of the ungulates (hoofed animals) that you may see in the forests. There are three main groups of ungulates, namely those without any “head-ornament” (like horses), one with horns (like cattle and goats), and another with antlers (like deer and moose). In contrast to the horns of sheep, goats, or cattle that are permanently growing, the antlers of deer, elk, and moose grow anew each spring/summer season and are “shed” in the following winter.
Ungulates’ Status Symbols
In the ungulates’ world, horns are actually weapons but antlers are primarily status symbols of males that indicate to prospective females the size and virility of their potential mates. That’s important when the rutting (mating) season is in full swing, for deer and moose that’s the fall.
In some species both sexes have antlers (e.g. the caribou) or horns (e.g. the Alpine chamois). However they usually differ between males and females, either in size or shape.
In fact, there are videos on the internet that really prove that point – like folks in the rutting season going out in the moose country and swaying a canoe paddle or pieces of plywood held in their hands over their head. Some bull moose are so frenzied that they will start rolling their eyes and attack such foolish competitors to their own aspirations. Videos of such types of scenes can be found here and elsewhere.
The Fight is On
If necessary (from a bull’s point of view) the antlers may be used to push off a potential contender to his intention, but any injury to either one is quite rare, basically an accident. Normally, the weaker specimen will soon realize its inferiority and retreat. Only on very rare occasions of such tussles and only known for deer (and elk ??) but not for moose, their antlers may become locked into each other without the animals’ ability to extract themselves and retreat. Such an event, of course, leads to the death of both.
While trying to determine whose strength and stamina should prevail, some younger specimen of the kind (commonly referred to as “interlopers”) may just try to “steal the show” and gain the favor of the nearby female. Occasionally, with the big bulls’ basically having the same intentions but being too busy sparring with a rival, an interloper may be successful – it does happen!
When all is Said and Done
When all the breeding rituals are over, the antlers become useless adornments. In fact they become obstacles to their survival in the harsh winter conditions. So, the tissue connecting such to their proud owners’ heads disintegrate and, a few weeks later their head-dress will simply drop off.
That’s the “sheds” you may find in the bush, just about anywhere as the animals really have no control over when and where the antlers drop off. As any animal’s pair of antlers never is in exact mirror images, they also are rarely shed at the same time or found in close proximity to each other.
That head-dress-less condition does not make the animals anymore susceptible to attack by their main predators, i.e. wolves and bears, rather to the contrary. Apart from losing that weight and obstacle to move through dense bush off their heads, they are not normally used to fend off predators. As for horses, the main defense for moose is the ability to strike a bone-crushing blow with the hooves. Alternatively, with their long legs, moose can easily flee – even through 3 ft. deep snow – that wolves would have great difficulties with.
Many hunters and other folks have been lucky to find such sheds on walks in the bush. However, after a year or more of withering on the ground, these finds often show signs of decay, like cracks and embedded algae growth, and gnawing by small rodents. Still, even with some small damage, a large moose palm or big deer antler exudes an aura of respect for its majestic previous owner.
That, my Dear Readers is where the law comes into force, at least in Ontario. Download the Ontario’s Hunting Regulations Summary (have never seen the full text) and you may be surprised what you can find there.
For example, on page 34 of that summary, it states “Please visit ontario.ca/page/buy-or-sell-wild-animal-hides-or-antlers-native-ontario or call 1-800-387-7011 for information on buying or selling hides or cast (naturally shed) antlers.” Following that link you come to some unclear definitions of what you can do or not with any found “naturally shed antlers.” Inter alia, there it says:
You can buy or sell the hides and/or naturally-shed antlers of:
Silly me was not even aware that some black bears (?) might come with antlers too. I’d surely like to see one of those.
Works of Art
However, there are exceptions to reporting/permit requirements. One does not need to get permission to sell “a set of cast antlers” for personal use.” Furthermore, my artist friend who carves antlers into fancy designs with eagles flying, wolves howling, or moose strutting ought to be safe.
For one of his works, see the picture below and enjoy.
A moose (shed) antler carved in artistic design (private collection).
Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser is a professional scientist with a Ph.D. in chemistry from the Technical University, Munich, Germany. He has worked as a research scientist and project chief at Environment Canada‘s Canada Centre for Inland Waters for over 30 years and is currently Director of Research at TerraBase Inc. He is author of nearly 300 publications in scientific journals, government and agency reports, books, computer programs, trade magazines, and newspaper articles.
Dr. Kaiser has been president of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, a peer reviewer of numerous scientific papers for several journals, Editor-in-Chief of the Water Quality Research Journal of Canada for nearly a decade, and an adjunct professor. He has contributed to a variety of scientific projects and reports and has made many presentations at national and international conferences.
Dr. Kaiser is author of CONVENIENT MYTHS, the green revolution – perceptions, politics, and facts convenientmyths.com
This is shaping up to be one of the shortest ice-free seasons in at least 20 years for both Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears.
Last week, sea ice started forming along the shore of Hudson Bay, from the north end all the way south into James Bay. So far, the shorefast ice that’s forming is only a narrow strip along the coast but is thickening and becoming broader each day, which means that unless something changes dramatically, the bears should all be on the ice at the end of the week, an exodus from shore that hasn’t happened this early in WH since 1993 (the earliest since 1979).
The last WH tagged polar bear didn’t leave the ice this year until 21 August, which means if it’s on the ice by the end of this week it will have spent only 11 weeks onshore – less than 3 months. Even the first bears that came ashore in mid-July will have only spent about 16 weeks on land – at least a month less than they did a decade ago (Stirling and Derocher 2012). Four months spent ashore was the historical average for Western Hudson Bay bears in the 1970s and 1980s (Stirling et al. 1977, 1999). This year, most polar bears will have spent only about 13-14 weeks on land because they did not come ashore until early August.
Freeze-up dates since 1979
I am using a definition of “freeze-up” that describes the behaviour of polar bears to newly formed ice, not the date when fall ice coverage on the bay reaches 50% (e.g. Lunn et al. 2016). According to a recalculation of WH data that goes up to 2015 and back to 1979 (Castro de la Guardia 2017, see graph below), in the 1980s bears left for the ice at freeze-up (10% sea ice coverage) about 16 November ± 5 days. The earliest the bears left the ice was in 1991 and 1993, on 6 November (Julian day 310).
The first week of November is very early for bears leaving for the ice.
Therefore, freeze-up dates of 10-12 November or so (Day 314-316) for 2017, 2018, and 2019 are some of the earliest freeze-up dates recorded since 1979 (the earliest being 6 November, Day 310, in 1991 and 1993), even earlier than the average for the 1980s. And 2020 is earlier still.
Virtually all Western Hudson Bay bears leave the shore within about 2 days of sea ice concentration reaching 10% (Castro de la Guardia 2017), although Southern Hudson Bay bears leave when it reaches about 5%: in other words, the bears go as soon as they possibly can. As I discussed in 2016 regarding newly-published studies (Obbard et al. 2015, 2016) on the status of Southern Hudson Bay (SH) bears:
“…SH polar bears left the ice (or returned to it) when the average ice cover near the coast was about 5%. This finding is yet more evidence that the meteorological definition of “breakup” (date of 50% ice cover) used by many researchers (see discussion here) is not appropriate for describing the seasonal movements of polar bears on and off shore.”
The earliest freeze-up date for Southern Hudson Bay appears to be about 11 November (Julian day 315), based on data in a paper by Obbard and colleagues in 2016. So freeze-up is early for these bears as well.
Despite this being the best of six very good years for the polar bears of Western Hudson Bay, activist polar bear scientists continue to sell the public their false message of doom based on data from years ago. As I’ve mentioned previously, polar bear data from Western Hudson Bay prior to these good years (i.e. up to 2009 only) was used for the latest model (Molnar et al. 2020) predicting future conditions for polar bears elsewhere in the Arctic. These good years for sea ice and bears have simply been ignored in long-term projections.
Hiding the good news
Polar bear biologist Derocher recently said the timing of sea ice formation this year is ‘normal’:
Yesterday’s satellite image has little ice forming near Rankin Inlet. It’s -11 C (12 F) so ice should form soon. Timing is about normal. NW Hudson Bay is where the 1st ice forms. Ice moves south on winds & piles up along shore east of Churchill where many polar bears are waiting. https://t.co/EQH390707Hpic.twitter.com/vbWnbT0p0c— Andrew Derocher (@AEDerocher) October 28, 2020
However, charts from the Canadian Ice Service indicate otherwise.
In their ‘Departure from normal’ chart for the week of 2 November 2020, sea ice formation along the entire western coast of Hudson Bay is ‘greater than normal’ and ‘much greater than normal’ (blue and dark blue), below. Only the very northern portions are slightly less than normal (pink):
Daily charts for Hudson Bay north and south are below for 3 November: dark purple areas (‘grey ice’) were light purple the day before (‘new’ ice):
WH polar bears and sea ice photos
Probably the same triplet litter as spotted in September was seen again on 31 October getting ready to leave for the ice. How many more of these triplet litters are out there? They are rarely seen now although they used to be common. Last one before this was photographed in 2017 north of Churchill. But while these large litters may now be more rare than they used to be, they have not disappeared. In other regions, triplet litters are an indicator of a healthy population.
All of the bears spotted hanging around waiting for the sea ice have been fat and healthy (e.g. below).
On Saturday, a polar bear mother with two cubs went out on the ice and caught a seal (below).
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Lunn, N.J., Servanty, S., Regehr, E.V., Converse, S.J., Richardson, E. and Stirling, I. 2016. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range – impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay. Ecological Applications 26(5): 1302-1320. DOI: 10.1890/15-1256
Molnár, P.K., Bitz, C.M., Holland, M.M., Kay, J.E., Penk, S.R. and Amstrup, S.C. 2020. Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0818-9
Obbard, M.E., Stapleton, S., Middel, K.R., Thibault, I., Brodeur, V. and Jutras, C. 2015. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys. Polar Biology 38:1713-1725.
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, K.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, K.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2: 15-32. DOI: 10.1139/AS-2015-0027
Stirling I, Jonkel C, Smith P, Robertson R, Cross D. 1977. The ecology of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) along the western coast of Hudson Bay. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper No. 33. pdf here.
Cold record in November in ‘Serra Catarinense’, South Brazil.
Thursday, November 5th, marked a record of cold in the Serra Catarinense in the city of Urupema with a temperature of – 3.1°C.
Frost has been recorded in many cities in Santa Catarina, from the west to the Serra Catarinense (High Mountains).
In different parts of São Joaquim-SC, apple and grape producers attempted to defend themselves by making fires around the orchards, but in many places like ‘Vale da Invernadinha’ about 10 km from the city center, the producers did not have as much luck, because the frost hit the small fruits in full and caused significant loss in the harvest.
That was the 120th frost in 2020 and with 77 days of negative marks in Santa Catarina. 4 Days with snow and 2 days with icicles.
China has invested heavily in pumped storage in recent decades. But the worldwide difficulty is clear: ‘Outside China, the world’s largest pumped storage producer, year-on-year installed capacity growth has been just 1.5% since 2014.’ Developed countries have usually already taken advantage of many of their best locations for such projects, so rapidly increasing existing capacity is highly problematic for them. Once again we see the folly of aiming to rely heavily on intermittent and/or weather-dependent renewables for power generation. Brace for power outages. – – – The International Hydropower Association (IHA) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) are leading the International Forum on Pumped Storage Hydropower this week, reports PEI.
The forum is a global, multi-stakeholder initiative of 11 governments and more than 60 organisations aimed at addressing the urgent need for clean and reliable energy storage.
Premiered on 3 November 2020, the week-long forum brings together the governments of the USA, Austria, Brazil, Estonia, Greece, India, Indonesia, Israel, Morocco, Norway and Switzerland, as well as international financial institutions, non-profit organisations and leading energy companies such as EDF, GE Renewable Energy, Voith and Hydro Tasmania.
Keynote speaker and former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull urged governments and industry to move quickly to develop projects at the scale needed to support the rapid roll-out of variable renewables.
“I believe we urgently need to raise awareness of pumped hydro and its vital role in the clean energy transition. This will require the industry to have a higher profile with the goal of engaging governments and heads of government to make it happen,” he said.
“We have to get going. [Wind and solar power] can be built in months, but pumped hydro takes several years. Pumped hydro can provide short term storage and load following, as can batteries. But its real comparative advantage is that with sufficient scale in water and elevation it can provide days or even weeks of energy storage,” added Turnbull.
Speaking at the event, Daniel R Simmons, assistant secretary for the US DOE’s office of energy efficiency and renewable energy, said: “We still need to have an electric grid which is incredibly reliable and pumped storage hydropower contributes greatly to this.
“We recognise with hydropower and with PSH (pumped storage hydropower) that there needs to be international collaboration… because the challenges are very similar. For example, we want to recognise the XFLEX HYDRO project where more than a dozen partners have come together to demonstrate new hydropower technologies at locations across Europe.”
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 14,000GW of additional variable wind and solar capacity is needed by 2050 to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement, and substantial levels of new investment in long-duration, low-carbon energy storage will be required to meet expected demand.
Pumped storage hydropower, also known as ‘the world’s water battery’ is a flexible, clean, dispatchable source of electricity. It is needed to facilitate increasing quantities of variable renewables, which require a back-up to ensure the stability of power systems.
IRENA has stated that global pumped storage hydropower capacity will need to double from nearly 160 GW today to 325GW over the next 30 years, to limit the rise in global temperatures to below 2 degree Celsius.
Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) development, however, remains stagnant in many markets. Outside China, the world’s largest pumped storage producer, year-on-year installed capacity growth has been just 1.5% since 2014.