By Paul Homewood

 In a blatantly political report, the UN claim that “climate emergencies” have seen a staggering rise in the last 20 years:

In an urgent call for countries to prepare better for all catastrophic events – from earthquakes and tsunamis to biological threats such as the new coronavirus – data from the UN Office on Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) indicates that wealthy nations have done little to tackle the harmful emissions that are linked to climate threats which make up the bulk of disasters today.

Short odds

“Disaster management agencies have succeeded in saving many lives through improved preparedness and the dedication of staff and volunteers. But the odds continue to be stacked against them, in particular by industrial nations that are failing miserably on reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” said Mami Mizutori, UNDRR chief, and Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction.

According to the UNDRR report – produced with Belgium’s Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at UCLouvain – there were 7,348 recorded disaster events worldwide, during the last two decades. 

Approximately 1.23 million people died – approximately 60,000 per year – with more than four billion affected in total; many more than once. 

These two decades of disaster also caused $2.97 trillion in losses to the global economy, with data also indicating that poorer nations experienced deaths rates more than four times higher than richer nations.

By comparison, the previous 20-year period (1980 to 1999) saw 4,212 reported disasters from natural hazards, with 1.19 million deaths, more than three billion people affected and economic losses totalling $ 1.63 trillion. 

Climate danger spike

Although better recording and reporting of disasters may help explain some of the increase in the last two decades, researchers insisted that the significant rise in climate-related emergencies was the main reason for the spike, with floods accounting for more than 40 per cent of disasters – affecting 1.65 billion people – storms 28 per cent, earthquakes (eight per cent) and extreme temperatures (six per cent).

“This is clear evidence that in a world where the global average temperature in 2019 was 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, the impacts are being felt in the increased frequency of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts, flooding, winter storms, hurricanes and wildfires,” UNDRR reported .

Despite the pledge made by the international community in Paris in 2015 to reduce global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Ms. Mizutori added that it was “baffling” that nations were continuing knowingly “to sow the seeds of our own destruction, despite the science and evidence that we are turning our only home into an uninhabitable hell for millions of people”. 


Amazingly the UNDRR report itself shows the claim to be nonsense:

Since 2000, the trend in the number of disasters has actually been downwards, clearly debunking any pretence that weather is getting worse because of global warming.

The report even specifically accepts this:

  So how does the UN justify its claim? Quite simply, they have compared two periods, 1980 – 1999 with 2000 – 2019:

Note that despite the claimed increase in disasters, the death toll has nearly halved. Given that the number of disasters has not increased since 2000, we are expected to believe there was a sudden jump prior to 2000.

And EM-DAT’s 2004 report,Thirty years of natural disasters 1974-2003 , explains just why:

Put simply, many more disasters are recorded nowadays because of better reporting systems. But this does not mean more are actually occurring.

EM-DAT’s 2006 report noted this as well:

Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2006”

You’ll notice in Fig 2 that there is a sharp jump in 1999/2000. That is no coincidence either. According to that 2006 report, EM-DAT only began publishing statistics on disasters in 1998, following funding from USAID:

Prior to 1998, the whole operation of EM-DAT was hit and miss. EM-DAT’s definition of a disaster includes extremely tiny, local events now. It simply is not conceivable that such tiny events would have been always recorded in the past.

Debarati Guha-Sapir, Professor, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, who co-authored this latest report, knows all of this, because she also wrote the earlier reports in 2004 and 2006, So why is she now claiming there has been a  staggering rise in climate-related disasters over the last twenty years?

The GWPF have labelled the report a “huge blunder and embarrassment”, and called for it to be withdrawn.

There is sadly little prospect of that, because the report was written to promote the UN’s own political agenda, as the Foreword makes clear:



October 13, 2020 at 06:27AM