Global Temperature Update for September 2020: +0.57 deg. C

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2020 was +0.57 deg. C, up from from the August, 2020 value of +0.43 deg. C.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

For comparison, the CDAS global surface temperature anomaly for the last 30 days at Weatherbell.com is +0.38 deg. C.

With La Nina in the Pacific now officially started, it will take several months for that surface cooling to be fully realized in the tropospheric temperatures. Typically, La Nina minimum temperatures (and El Nino maximum temperatures) show up around February, March, or April.

Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 21 months are:

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 
2019 01 +0.38 +0.35 +0.41 +0.35 +0.53 -0.14 +1.14
2019 02 +0.37 +0.47 +0.28 +0.43 -0.02 +1.05 +0.05
2019 03 +0.34 +0.44 +0.25 +0.41 -0.55 +0.97 +0.58
2019 04 +0.44 +0.38 +0.51 +0.53 +0.49 +0.93 +0.91
2019 05 +0.32 +0.29 +0.35 +0.39 -0.61 +0.99 +0.38
2019 06 +0.47 +0.42 +0.52 +0.64 -0.64 +0.91 +0.35
2019 07 +0.38 +0.33 +0.44 +0.45 +0.10 +0.34 +0.87
2019 08 +0.38 +0.38 +0.39 +0.42 +0.17 +0.44 +0.23
2019 09 +0.61 +0.64 +0.59 +0.60 +1.14 +0.75 +0.57
2019 10 +0.46 +0.64 +0.27 +0.30 -0.03 +1.00 +0.49
2019 11 +0.55 +0.56 +0.54 +0.55 +0.21 +0.56 +0.37
2019 12 +0.56 +0.61 +0.50 +0.58 +0.92 +0.66 +0.94
2020 01 +0.56 +0.60 +0.53 +0.61 +0.73 +0.12 +0.65
2020 02 +0.75 +0.96 +0.55 +0.76 +0.38 +0.02 +0.30
2020 03 +0.47 +0.61 +0.34 +0.63 +1.09 -0.72 +0.16
2020 04 +0.38 +0.43 +0.33 +0.45 -0.59 +1.03 +0.97
2020 05 +0.54 +0.60 +0.49 +0.66 +0.17 +1.16 -0.15
2020 06 +0.43 +0.45 +0.41 +0.46 +0.38 +0.80 +1.20
2020 07 +0.44 +0.45 +0.42 +0.46 +0.56 +0.39 +0.66
2020 08 +0.43 +0.47 +0.38 +0.59 +0.41 +0.47 +0.49
2020 09 +0.57 +0.58 +0.56 +0.46 +0.97 +0.48 +0.92

The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for September, 2020 should be available within the next few days here.

The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:

Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt


Note: when UAH updates the full climate report, I will add it here. – Anthony
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October 1, 2020 at 04:14PM

Spain – Unusual winter stamps for September

That’s winter, as in WINTER.
Up to half a meter of snow in high altitudes, while the meteorological station of Cogulla, in Cerler registered the minimum for the country on Sunday with -5.9 degrees.
The Cogulla meteorological station, located in Cerler, at 2,300 meters, registered the minimum in the country on Sunday at -5.9 degrees.

Torla was the second coldest with -1.9 (in Cebollar, at 1,900 m) and Panticosa, the third, with -1.1 (in Petrosos, at 1,850). Among the top ten places, the 2 degrees of Benabarre also stand out, as this station is located in a population center.

At the Aemet meteorological station in Sarrios, in the Formigal ski resort, 25 centimeters accumulated on Saturday.

Above 2,800 meters, the snow will not go away, says Joan María Vendrell, he guard of refuge Góriz (Fanlo) refuge, who on Saturday took out his skis near this shelter at 2,200 meters in the Ordesa y Monte Perdido National Park. At a similar altitude is Respomuso (Sallent de Gállego), which in this episode has reached 55 cm.

Not at the beginning of winter, but at the beginning of autumn

“We are at the beginning of autumn, nobody thinks that we are in winter.” The delegate of the State Meteorological Agency in Aragon thus referred to the precipitous change in weather this weekend. After the passage of the storm ‘Odette’, with up to half a meter of snow in high altitudes, Rafael Requena clarified that the unusual “is not that the snow appears in September, a month ago it did in the summits and it was August, the unusual thing is the quantity and the thermal contrast “.

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/aragon/huesca/2020/09/27/la-tormenta-odette-deja-estampas-invernales-inusuales-para-un-mes-de-septiembre-1397218.htmlhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei6MsVTXgAA1Pit?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei6MsgWWsAISE5O?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei6MsrIWsAIEaHQ?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei6Ms3vWsAEK86Z?format=jpg&name=medium

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for these links

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October 1, 2020 at 03:44PM

Record cold in Northern Ireland

Katesbridge, pictured here in December, often records NI’s highest and lowest temperatures

Not just for one town, but for all of Northern Ireland.

Saturday night was the coldest September night on record for Northern Ireland, the Met Office has confirmed.

Katesbridge, in County Down, fell to a chilly -3.7C.

The hamlet is (supposedly) well known for often recording the island of Ireland’s highest and lowest temperature.

Even so – a record is still a record.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54316485

Thanks to Ben Vorlich for this link

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October 1, 2020 at 03:23PM

Nat Gas Prices Set To Soar – Cold Blast To Strike Eastern US Next Week

This comes just one week after “scores of locations in interior New England and western New York set record lows in the 20s and 30s,” according to The Washington Post.

The so-called “chill” even reached the Mid-Atlantic, “where Washington observed lows in the 40s on four straight days in September for the first time since 1950.”

8 to 15 degrees below normal

28 Sep 2020 – The ten-day outlook shows a cold airmass will encompass all U.S. Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast, where temperatures could hover 8 to 15 degrees below normal through the first week of October.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/first-cold-blast-strike-eastern-us-next-week-nat-gas-prices-set-soar

Thanks to Jack Hydrazine and Oly for this link

“Don’t use your furnace this week when it gets cold because it causes global warming ?” says Oly. “Pfffffffffffffft, as if.”

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October 1, 2020 at 03:23PM

Polar bear damage to parked military helicopter shows their immense power

A polar bear punched out the window of a parked Royal Canadian Air Force search and rescue helicopter on 16 September in northern Labrador, which should be a reminder that these bears are extremely powerful and potentially dangerous. 

If you ever thought you would be safe in a cabin or vehicle if a polar bear really wanted in, you might want to think again and remember that residents of the Arctic put up with this risk of polar bear attack, intrusion and damage all year long (Crockford 2019). And it’s not because the bears are simply ‘curious’.

Two photos below from Svalbard: of a bear that climbed onboard a boat moored offshore in 2019 while its occupants had lunch on the beach (damaging the hydraulic steering, vinyl seats, heating system, canopy, and an inflatable raft), and of a cabin ransacked by a polar bear in 2017 after it ripped the door off its hinges. Since it is my understanding that cabin owners in Svalbard are not permitted to leave stored food in unoccupied buildings, the attractants in these empty cabins must be other things that contain oil, like cleaning products, vinyl furniture, and candles.

From CBC News (30 September 2020), my bold:

“A CH-149 Cormorant search and rescue helicopter was damaged earlier this month by what appears to have been a puzzled polar bear. The aircraft belong to 413 Squadron, which is based in Greenwood, N.S.

It spent the night at a remote airstrip in Saglek, Newfoundland and Labrador on Sept. 16, said Lt.-Col. Brent Vaino, the squadron commander. The aircraft was supposed to land on a helipad at an automated NORAD radar station near the remote community, but poor weather over northern Labrador prevented the crew from reaching it. They were detoured to an airstrip closer to sea level.

“The crew had to park the aircraft down below, not up at elevation like they wanted to,” said Vaino. “Because of that, it’s an area with a body of water on either side and polar bears do occasionally transit on either side of them, and this case that’s what happened.”

In the darkness, while the crew slept at the radar station, the bear chose to conduct a snap inspection of the brightly painted helicopter, causing what the air force said was “superficial damage” when it pushed on the side door.

Vaino said he believes the animal was curious and likely not hungry. The bear managed to pop out an emergency exit window and rip the cover off the nose cone.

“The polar bear did not get inside the helicopter and there were no crew members in the vicinity at the time,” said the air force’s Twitter post, which was accompanied by a series of photos that show the damaged side of the helicopter and the window with an oily paw smear.”

The speculation that the bear was “more curious than hungry” does not take into account the fact that polar bears, while definitely curious, are highly attracted to smells from made-made petroleum products including oils and lubricants, vinyl seats, plastic-coated cables, antifreeze and insulation (Truett 1993). Snowmachines are often damaged by polar bears, probably because they simply reek of oil, which to them means food – see photo below from January 2019 of the damage to a snowmachine in Alaska.

Note that the area of northern Labrador where the RCAF helicopter was damaged was where an almost-fatal polar bear attack occurred in late July 2013 that was later sensationalized in a book and falsely claimed to be a climate change incident. The excerpt (below) from my Range Magazine article on this incident (Crockford 2015) may help you remember:

“Seven hikers, two of whom were the expedition’s Sierra Club leaders and another was a board member for the book’s eventual publisher, set out on a two-week-long adventure.

The victim was Maine lawyer Matt Dyer, a self-described “liberal activist” and long-time Sierra Club member.

….

Dyer suffered two broken neck vertebrae, a crushed jaw and broken bones in his left hand. One of the other hikers, an MD, was able to stabilize Dyer’s injuries until he could be airlifted to Montreal for more extensive treatment. He eventually recovered.”

References

Crockford, S.J. 2015. “A Harrowing Encounter”. Range Magazine, Spring issue.

Crockford, S.J. 2019The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback and ebook formats.

Truett, J. C. (ed.). 1993. Guidelines for Oil and Gas Operations in Polar Bear Habitats. Minerals Management Service Alaska, US Dept. of the Interior, Report 93-0008. Pdf here.

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October 1, 2020 at 02:24PM

‘Man-made’ global warming is a United Nations fraud, like covid, says geologist

What have I been doing about these frauds? “I’ve spoken out, thereby making myself unemployable,” says Dr Roger Higgs. “My conscience demanded it.”

Climate- and sea-level change by Sun not CO2

Goal: My goal is to establish the truth about climate- and sea-level change and man’s effect on them, if any. 

This is unlike the opportunistic new field of ‘climate science’, mostly computer modellers studying only the last 150 years (emphasis added), whose careers DEPEND on public belief that current warming is by man-made CO2 rather than our Sun’s 1937-2004 greatest surge in 10,000 years.

WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a geology doctorate (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years’ worldwide geological consulting experience.

I’m now in my 5th year of full-time, unpaid, self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, geophysics, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and ‘climate science’ (mainly computer modelling of climate, with a strong vested interest (job preservation & publication history) in blaming CO2).

I began this quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the IPCC, the media and governments were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed ‘pollutant’.

How wrong I was.

My ResearchGate project comprises about 30 brief and readily understood contributions, mostly ‘Technical Notes’ (usually 1 to 5 pdf slides, convenient for laptop viewing and projecting) and one-page conference abstracts, spanning 2016-2020 (click on ‘Project Log’ above). I generally add a new contribution every few weeks. These items summarise my conclusions and predictions to date.

MY HOPE in choosing prestigious and non-political ResearchGate as a platform for my climate contributions is to inform other scientists (PROPER, impartial scientists, without vested interests), especially university educators, who will then begin the task of explaining to the general public that for decades they and their children have been misinformed: in fact global warming (which will end ~2050) has nothing to do with CO2; and the ‘97% of scientists’ who claim that ‘The science is settled’ are just CLIMATE Scientists.

Gratifyingly my list of ResearchGate ‘Followers’ and weekly ‘Reads by Institution’ indicate many university lecturers among my readers. 

Climate change is a multi-trillion-dollar fraud

Dr Roger Higgs

Climate has ALWAYS changed; ask any geologist. Climate is controlled by three factors: Earth’s orbital characteristics (Milankovitch); the Sun’s variations (Svensmark); and to a minor short-term degree by super-volcanic eruptions. Man can do NOTHING about climate.

See entire article:
https://www.iceagenow.info/climate-change-is-a-multi-trillion-dollar-fraud/

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October 1, 2020 at 12:46PM

New Zealand – Snowfalls to sea level

North Island Snow: Desert Rd warning as wintry conditions hit highway

After two days of a wintry bomb cyclone, heavy snow and ice is still affecting southern highways, with a number of roads closed across Otago and Fiordland.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12369043
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/spring-storm-brings-snow-to-new-zealands-beaches-and-travel-chaos


—-
Some very chilly nights coming up! Widespread frost expected as many places go sub-zero. Here’s a look at some hourly temps around the South Island overnight tonight!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1310782664740274176

— MetService (@MetService) September 29, 2020

Thanks to Martin Siebert for these links

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October 1, 2020 at 12:25PM

Arctic September Ice Dip Is Over

Just like the Arizona road in the image,  Arctic ice extent has dipped in September and is on the rise again.  The graph below shows how September monthly extent averages compare for the years since 2007. 

Overall it resembles the Arizona roadway.  Two low years are followed by two high years, then two low years and so son.  The last two years are low, comparable to 2007, and may portend higher ice extent ahead. As usual MASIE and SII are showing nearly the same monthly averages, 4.0M km2 for MASIE and 3.9M km2 for SII. The graph below shows how the ice dipped and recovered in 2020 compared to the 13-year average and some notable years.

September 2020 daily minimum was lower than all previous years except for 2012.  As noted previous this year’s anomaly was the hot Siberian summer melting out the Eurasian shelf seas and the bordering parts of the Central Arctic Sea.  In 2012 it was the Great Arctic Cyclone in August of that year.  After day 255, ice recovered strongly ending the month higher than 2007, close to 2019 and about 150k km2 less the the average daily minimum on day 260, 4.4M km2

The table shows monthly extent averages for the regions with ice in September for several years and the 13-year average for each region.

Sept. Monthly Averages2007201220192020AverageSD %
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere4286957362264841240353969085463077910%
 (1) Beaufort_Sea55842421205138277962040948749831%
 (2) Chukchi_Sea49690525391114127759817214353%
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea1251534117302312140828777763%
 (4) Laptev_Sea24627844336871212814160481%
 (5) Kara_Sea495027171661306324612102%
 (6) Barents_Sea6782013238018757183%
 (7) Greenland_Sea33414726389917311623521619726333%
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence330431559116589203613292650%
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago25214019850226533533999629981730%
 (10) Hudson_Bay109989502027837947135%
 (11) Central_Arctic274343327710143000459253727129594586%

The last column shows the Standard Deviation % for each region and for NH as a whole.  Over this period the NH fluctuations have been +/- 10%.  The most variable is Barents Sea, which can be zero or over 200k km2.  Hudson Bay and Kara likewise either melt out or retain significant ice. The Central Arctic varies little from year to year.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

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October 1, 2020 at 12:24PM

Cool but Misinterpreted HCQ PreP Study

Abella et al. [1] suggests that pre-exposure Hydroxychloroquine prophylaxis might protect a person against COVID-19, but to acquire immunity against it!

Hydroxychloroquine initially accumulates in the lung tissues, then in spleen and liver (according to experiments in animals [2]). SARS-COV-2 usually enters and starts replicating in the upper respiratory tract [3] and then moves down to the lungs, where it causes most damage. Thus, it might be expected that HCQ / HCQ+Zinc prophylaxis would prevent SARS-COV-2 from infecting lungs and the rest of the body, while the immune system response builds up. After that, immunity remains for long time.

The study  confirmed that. All four persons on HCQ who were PCR-positive have also developed IGG antibody. In the same time, they experienced no or very mild symptoms. HCQ prophylaxis is expected to prevent or mitigate illness, not positive test results.

This study has many limitations and is not sufficient to demonstrate this effect, but it is consistent with it. Further studies should be done.

Of note, there was no difference in QTc, despite HCQ accumulation many times exceeding one achieved in a treatment.

Effectiveness of HCQ Prophylaxis is not Challenged

Of course, the study does not call in question the known effectiveness of HCQ prophylaxis [4]:

  1. HCQ studies conducted on health care workers cannot be blind or placebo controlled. A healthcare worker knows whether s/he received HCQ or placebo. Further, HCWs that receive HCQ are likely to feel themselves more protected and to take more risks of infection.
  2. This study is severely underpowered. There were only 4 PCR positive persons in each arm.
  3. 600 mg of HCQ daily for 8 weeks is not how HCQ prophylaxis is done, and is overdose. Typical prophylaxis regimen is 1,200-2,000 mg over five days to achieve a prophylactic concentration of HCQ metabolites in the tissues, then 400 mg per week to maintain it. Daily 600 mg of HCQ is likely to suppress person’s immunity after 2-3 weeks of such prophylaxis, leaving one less protected against all infections. The authors stressed that they could not always verify what disease the patients had.

References

[1] Abella BS, Jolkovsky EL, Biney BT, et al. Efficacy and Safety of Hydroxychloroquine vs Placebo for Pre-exposure SARS-CoV-2 Prophylaxis Among Health Care Workers: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Intern Med. Published online September 30, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.6319

[2] Browning D.J. (2014) Pharmacology of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine. In: Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine Retinopathy. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-0597-3_2

[3] Wölfel, R., Corman, V.M., Guggemos, W. et al. Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019. Nature 581, 465–469 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2196-x

[4] Chatterjee P, Anand T, Singh KJ, Rasaily R, Singh R, Das S, Singh H, Praharaj I, Gangakhedkar RR, Bhargava B, Panda S. Healthcare workers & SARS-CoV-2 infection in India: A case-control investigation in the time of COVID-19. Indian J Med Res 2020;151:459-67. http://www.ijmr.org.in/text.asp?2020/151/5/459/285520

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October 1, 2020 at 12:19PM

Risk of dying of Chinavirus for 20-49 yr-olds: 1 in 5,000 – Risk of dying in a motor vehicle crash: 1 in 5,000

I wonder how many people aged 20 to 49 years old are willing to stop driving? As near as I can tell, their odds of dying from Covid-19 look about the same.

“Based on latest CDC data, the Wuhan coronavirus poses virtually no death risk whatsoever for people under the age of 50,” writes Mike Adams in Natural News. (emphasis added)

“For people aged 20 – 49 years, the IFR drops to just 1 in 5000. This means that for every 5,000 people who are infected within this age group, one fatality is expected.

For comparison, “the annual risk of being killed in a motor vehicle crash for the average American is about 1 in 5,000,” according to a recent article on pbs.org.

“Those below the age of 20 have an even lower fatality rate: About 1 in 33,000,” writes Adams.

“In summary, the risk of death from the coronavirus in people under the age of 50 is extremely small, and approaching zero.

“At the same time, these data also confirm the virus remains extremely dangerous to people over the age of 70, and the CDC estimates that 1 in 18 elderly people who contract the virus (i.e. are “infected”) end up being killed by it.”

These numbers are based on the CDC’s new data here , using “Scenario 5,” labeled “Current Best Estimate.”

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-09-28-latest-cdc-data-wuhan-coronavirus-death-risk.html

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October 1, 2020 at 11:57AM