It takes a special brand of delusion to believe that we’ll soon all be powered by nothing but sunshine and breezes. Cynics might suggest that there’s a pretty strong correlation between wishful thinking and endless subsidies to wind and solar. But, apart from rent seeking crony capitalists, there’s still a fair proportion out there who truly want to believe in the promise of an ‘inevitable transition’ away from the sources which have reliably powered us for more than a century.
Solar panel owners watching the eastern horizon in earnest for a glimpse of their benefactor are often foiled when the heavens literally rain on their parade.
Wind worshippers soon become fixated on forecasts that might reward their hope filled prayers with something like a beneficial breeze.
The idea that modern economies can operate around the dictates of where the Sun sits in the sky and the vagaries of the weather is, of course, patent nonsense. No country worth living in has ever run itself entirely on wind and solar; no country ever will.
Gas fires up the hornets of RE
17 September 2020
The Coalition decision to go for gas (and a few other things) has poked a stick into the hornets nest of power generators and the RE industry. It is a move guaranteed to make nobody happy because there is no solution that is generally acceptable and it is hard to imagine a bipartisan policy in the current political situation.
In a world where facts are taken seriously I can imagine a bipartisan agreement on the “four icebergs” problem.
(1) In view of the AEMO data nobody plausibly deny that we experience frequent and prolonged wind droughts.
(2) It is also difficult to deny that the system should be capable of delivering 100% of demand 100% of the time. Similarly, we need air all the time to survive, and hyperventilating last week does not prevent choking or drowning this week.
(3) The island effect. This has hardly surfaced in the public discussion so far because we still have just enough conventional power to get along almost 100% of the time. That will not be the case when Liddell closes unless there is a miracle to conjure up 2GW of additional reliable power out of the blue.
(4) The claims that transmission lines, batteries and pumped hydro will solve the storage problem can be refuted but not in the same knock-down manner that applies to arguments 1-3.
This video from Mark Mills and Prager is a miracle of compression to explain the key points with vivid images in 5 minutes.
Have you ever heard of “unobtanium”?
It’s the magical energy mineral found on the planet Pandora in the movie, Avatar. It’s a fantasy in a science fiction script. But environmentalists think they’ve found it here on earth in the form of wind and solar power.
They think all the energy we need can be supplied by building enough wind and solar farms; and enough batteries.
The simple truth is that we can’t. Nor should we want to—not if our goal is to be good stewards of the planet.
To understand why, consider some simple physics realities that aren’t being talked about.
All sources of energy have limits that can’t be exceeded. The maximum rate at which the sun’s photons can be converted to electrons is about 33%. Our best solar technology is at 26% efficiency. For wind, the maximum capture is 60%. Our best machines are at 45%.
So, we’re pretty close to wind and solar limits. Despite PR claims about big gains coming, there just aren’t any possible. And wind and solar only work when the wind blows and the sun shines. But we need energy all the time. The solution we’re told is to use batteries. Again, physics and chemistry make this very hard to do.
Consider the world’s biggest battery factory, the one Tesla built in Nevada. It would take 500 years for that factory to make enough batteries to store just one day’s worth of America’s electricity needs. This helps explain why wind and solar currently still supply less than 3% of the world’s energy, after 20 years and billions of dollars in subsidies.
Putting aside the economics, if your motive is to protect the environment, you might want to rethink wind, solar, and batteries because, like all machines, they’re built from nonrenewable materials.
Consider some sobering numbers:
A single electric-car battery weighs about half a ton. Fabricating one requires digging up, moving, and processing more than 250 tons of earth somewhere on the planet.
Building a single 100 Megawatt wind farm, which can power 75,000 homes requires some 30,000 tons of iron ore and 50,000 tons of concrete, as well as 900 tons of non-recyclable plastics for the huge blades. To get the same power from solar, the amount of cement, steel, and glass needed is 150% greater.
Then there are the other minerals needed, including elements known as rare earth metals. With current plans, the world will need an incredible 200 to 2,000 percent increase in mining for elements such as cobalt, lithium, and dysprosium, to name just a few.
Where’s all this stuff going to come from? Massive new mining operations. Almost none of it in America, some imported from places hostile to America, and some in places we all want to protect.
Australia’s Institute for a Sustainable Future cautions that a global “gold” rush for energy materials will take miners into “…remote wilderness areas [that] have maintained high biodiversity because they haven’t yet been disturbed.”
And who is doing the mining? Let’s just say that they’re not all going to be union workers with union protections.
Amnesty International paints a disturbing picture: “The… marketing of state-of-the-art technologies are a stark contrast to the children carrying bags of rocks.”
And then the mining itself requires massive amounts of conventional energy, as do the energy-intensive industrial processes needed to refine the materials and then build the wind, solar, and battery hardware.
Then there’s the waste. Wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries have a relatively short life; about twenty years. Conventional energy machines, like gas turbines, last twice as long.
With current plans, the International Renewable Energy Agency calculates that by 2050, the disposal of worn-out solar panels will constitute over double the tonnage of all of today’s global plastic waste. Worn-out wind turbines and batteries will add millions of tons more waste. It will be a whole new environmental challenge.
Before we launch history’s biggest increase in mining, dig up millions of acres in pristine areas, encourage childhood labor, and create epic waste problems, we might want to reconsider our almost inexhaustible supply of hydrocarbons—the fuels that make our marvelous modern world possible.
And technology is making it easier to acquire and cleaner to use them every day.
The following comparisons are typical—and instructive:
It costs about the same to drill one oil well as it does to build one giant wind turbine. And while that turbine generates the energy equivalent of about one barrel of oil per hour, the oil rig produces 10 barrels per hour. It costs less than 50 cents to store a barrel of oil or its equivalent in natural gas. But you need $200 worth of batteries to hold the energy contained in one oil barrel.
Next time someone tells you that wind, solar and batteries are the magical solution for all our energy needs ask them if they have an idea of the cost… to the environment.
“Unobtanium” works fine in the movies. But we don’t live in movies. We live in the real world.
I’m Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, for Prager University.
via STOP THESE THINGS
September 22, 2020 at 02:31AM