Using satellite technology, NASA determined that between 2003 and 2019, global wildfires have dropped by roughly 25 percent. This makes the “climate change is worsening wildfires” argument completely moot.

From NASA Earth Observatory

The control of fire is a goal that may well be as old as humanity, but the systematic monitoring of fire on a global scale is a much newer capability.

In the 1910s, the U.S. Forest Service began building fire lookout towers on mountain peaks in order to detect distant fires. A few decades later, fire-spotting airplanes flew onto the scene. Then in the early 1980s, satellites began to map fires over large areas from the vantage point of space.

Over time, researchers have built a rich and textured record of Earth’s fire activity and are now able to analyze decadal trends. “The pace of discovery has increased dramatically during the satellite era,” said James Randerson, a scientist at the University of California, Irvine. “Having high-quality, daily observations of fires available on a global scale has been critical.”

The animation above shows the locations of actively burning fires on a monthly basis for nearly two decades. The maps are based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. The colors are based on a count of the number (not size) of fires observed within a 1,000-square-kilometer area. White pixels show the high end of the count—as many as 30 fires in a 1,000-square-kilometer area per day. Orange pixels show as many as 10 fires, while red areas show as few as 1 fire per day.

December 1, 2014 – August 31, 2015

The sequence highlights the rhythms—both natural and human-caused—in global fire activity. Bands of fire sweep across Eurasia, North America, and Southeast Asia as farmers clear and maintain fields in April and May. Summer brings new activity in boreal and temperate forests in North America and Eurasia due to lighting-triggered fires burning in remote areas. In the tropical forests of South America and equatorial Asia, fires flare up in August, September, and October as people make use of the dry season to clear rainforest and savanna, as well as stop trees and shrubs from encroaching on already cleared land. Few months pass in Australia without large numbers of fires burning somewhere on the continent’s vast grasslands, savannas, and tropical forests.

But it is Africa that is truly the fire continent. On an average day in August, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites detect 10,000 actively burning fires around the world—and 70 percent them happen in Africa. Huge numbers of blazes spring up in the northern part of continent in December and January. A half year later, the burning has shifted south. Indeed, global fire emissions typically peak in August and September, coinciding with the main fire seasons of the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa. (High activity in temperate and boreal forests in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer also contribute.)

August 29, 2018JPEG

The second animation underscores how much fire activity shifts seasonally by highlighting burning activity during December 2014, April 2015, and August 2015. The satellite image above shows smoke rising from the savanna of northern Zambia on August 29, 2018, around the time global emissions reach their maximum.

Though Africa dominates in the sheer number of fires, fires seasons there are pretty consistent from year-to-year. The most variable fire seasons happen elsewhere, such as the tropical forests of South America and equatorial Asia. In these areas, the severity of fire season is often linked to cycles of El Niño and La Niña. The buildup of warm water in the eastern Pacific during an El Niño changes atmospheric patterns and reduces rainfall over many rainforests, allowing them to burn more easily and widely.https://www.youtube.com/embed/69N494UIlS8?flag=1&enablejsapi=1&html5=1&origin=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Despite the vast quantities of carbon released by fires in savannas, grasslands, and boreal forests, research shows that fires in these biomes do not generally add carbon to the atmosphere in the long term. The regrowth of vegetation or the creation of charcoal typically recaptures all of the carbon within months or years. However, when fires permanently remove trees or burn through peat (a carbon-rich fuel that can take centuries to form), little carbon is recaptured and the atmosphere sees a net increase in CO₂.

That is why outbreaks of fire in countries with large amounts of peat, such as Indonesia, have an outsized effect on global climate. Fires in equatorial Asia account for just 0.6 percent of global burned area, yet the region accounts for 8 percent of carbon emissions and 23 percent of methane emissions. On October, 25, 2015, the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera aboard the DSCOVR satellite acquired an image (below) of heavy smoke over Indonesia; El Niño was particularly active at the time.

October 15, 2015

One of the most interesting things researchers have discovered since MODIS began collecting measurements, noted Randerson, is a decrease in the total number of square kilometers burned each year. Between 2003 and 2019, that number has dropped by roughly 25 percent.

As populations have increased in fire-prone regions of Africa, South America, and Central Asia, grasslands and savannas have become more developed and converted into farmland. As a result, long-standing habits of burning grasslands (to clear shrubs and land for cattle or other reasons) have decreased, explained NASA Goddard Space Flight scientist Niels Andela. And instead of using fire, people increasingly use machines to clear crops.

“There are really two separate trends,” said Randerson. “Even as the global burned area number has declined because of what is happening in savannas, we are seeing a significant increase in the intensity and reach of fires in the western United States because of climate change.”

2003 – 2015

When researchers began using satellites to study the world’s fires in the 1980s, they were just sorting out the basics of how to detect fires from space. Now after mining MODIS data for nearly two decades, scientists are looking ahead to other satellites and technologies that they hope will advance the study of fire in the coming years.

A series of follow-on sensors called the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 satellites now make near-real time observations of emissions that are even more accurate than those from MODIS because of improved fire detections along the edge of the edges of images, noted Andela.

Meanwhile, the launch of satellites with higher-resolution sensors is also helping. “The Landsat 8 and Sentinel satellites, in particular, are contributing to a revolution in our ability to measure the burned area of small grassland and forest fires,” said Randerson. “And we are going to need additional detection capabilities in the coming years to track increasingly destructive mega fires during all times of day and night.”

References & Resources

• Andela, N. et al. (2017) A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science, 356 (6345), 1356-1362.
• Chen, Y. et al. (2017) A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Nature Climate Change, 7, 906-911.
• Giglio, L. et al. (2006) Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 111, G2.
• Giglio, L. et al. (2006) Global estimation of burned area using MODIS active fire observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9, 957-974.
• Jones, S. et al. (2017) Advances in the Remote Sensing of Active Fires: A Review. Accessed August 20, 2019.
• Korontzi, S. et al. (2006) Global distribution of agricultural fires in croplands from 3 years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2 (20).
• NASA Earthdata (2019, August 7) Wildfires Can’t Hide from Earth Observing Satellites. Accessed 20, 2019.
• Turetsky, M. et al. (2015) Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss. Nature Geoscience, 8, 11-14.
• Van der Werf, G. et al. (2017) Global fire emissions estimates during 1997-2016. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697-720.

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September 16, 2020 at 08:03AM

Most European citizens do not particularly care about climate change. That’s the striking finding from new research on the views of 70,000 randomly sampled European men and women.

Only 5% described themselves as “extremely worried” about climate change. The climate and the environment ranked only fifth in people’s overall views about priorities. There was also scepticism that co-ordinated action, for example to cut personal energy use, would make much difference.

“It seems there is a chance the current generation will be content to sell their great grandchildren down the river,” said Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science at the University of Warwick, and senior author of the study – Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings.

He also pointed out that so-called desirability bias, which is the tendency for interviewees to feel compelled to shade their answers towards ‘politically correct’ ones, might mean the true level of worry about climate change is lower than indicated in the statistical surveys.

The study has implications for economists and policymakers, Oswald explains. “There is little point in designing sophisticated economic policies for combatting climate change until voters feel that climate change is a deeply disturbing problem. Currently, those voters do not feel that.”

Professor Oswald and Mr Adam Nowakowski of Bocconi University in Italy analysed data from two large-scale sources, the 2016 European Social Survey and the 2019 Eurobarometer survey. They found:

* Europeans do not exhibit high levels of worry about climate change, with 1 in 20 describing themselves as ‘extremely worried’

* Europe’s citizens are more concerned with inward-looking issues seen as closer to home, such as inflation, the general economic situation, health and social security, and unemployment.

* Europeans do not have a strong belief that joint action by energy users will make a real difference to climate change.

* Women, young people, university graduates and city-dwellers show higher levels of concern about climate change.

*People living in warmer European countries had higher levels of concern than those in the cooler North of the continent.

Full story

The post Not Scared: Research Reveals “Climate-Complacency” Across Europe appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

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September 16, 2020 at 07:20AM

SEPTEMBER 16, 2020 CAP ALLON

Heavy frosts and record-breaking cold swept parts of Canada on Tuesday morning, with another blast of polar air forecast to engulf much of the Great White North as well as the eastern half of the United States Thursday through Saturday.

Environment Canada issued frost advisories for three provinces this week, in Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Ontario, as temperatures threatened to sink below zero.

The mercury at southern Ontario’s Waterloo Region International Airport plunged to a record-breaking 1.3C (34.3F) in the early hours of Tuesday morning, a reading that comfortably busted the previous all-time record low of 1.7C (35F) set back in 1983 (approaching Solar Minimum of cycle 21).

Milder conditions are in store for Ontario today –Weds, Sept 16– but temperatures are expected to take another nosedive on Thursday. In fact, fall-like temps will grip the entire eastern half of the North American continent throughout the final weekend of Summer:

This week’s blast follows the record-shattering event from Sept 8, 9, and 10 during which hundreds of low temperature records tumbled across North America, and in particular the United States:

Just Count the Cold-Records that Fell over the Past 24hrs

https://electroverse.net/just-count-the-cold-records-that-have-fallen-over-the-past-24hrs/embed/#?secret=DZ7MXw48Ps

Additional heavy frosts are possible in Ontario on Thursday, Friday and Saturday night as temperatures again dip near the freezing mark. And further all-time cold record are expected to fall as a violently buckling jet stream –a phenomenon associated with the historically low solar activity we’re currently receiving– continues to divert bone-chilling Arctic air anomalously far south.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow. Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Prepare for the COLD— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach: Twitter are purging followers, and Facebook are labeling posts as “false”, and have issued crippling “page restrictions”:

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

Professor Valentina Zharkova: “We Entered the ‘Modern’ Grand Solar Minimum on June 8, 2020”

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THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A RESEARCH FINDING BY NCAR THAT THE ARCTIC IS TRANSITIONING TO A NEW CLIMATE STATE. (NCAR=National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA) LINK TO THE ARTICLE ON PHYS.ORG https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic-transitioning-climate-state.html

PART-1: WHAT THE NCAR PAPER SAYS

1. The fast-warming Arctic has started to transition from a predominantly frozen state into an entirely different climate, according to a comprehensive new study of Arctic conditions. Weather patterns in the upper latitudes have always varied from year to year, with more or less sea ice, colder or warmer winters, and longer or shorter seasons of rain instead of snow. But the new research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) finds that the Arctic has now warmed so significantly that its year-to-year variability is moving outside the bounds of any past fluctuations, signaling the transition to a „new Arctic“ climate regime.
2. The rate of change is remarkable. It’s a period of such rapid change that observations of past weather patterns no longer show what you can expect next year. The Arctic is already entering a completely different climate than just a few decades ago.
3. Arctic sea ice has melted so significantly in recent decades that even an unusually cold year will no longer have the amount of summer sea ice that existed as recently as the mid-20th century. Autumn and winter air temperatures will also warm enough to enter a statistically distinct climate by the middle of this century, followed by a seasonal change in precipitation that will result in additional months in which rain will fall instead of snow.
4. NCAR researchers arrived at these findings from hundreds of computer simulations as well as observations of Arctic climate conditions. The vast amount of data enabled them to statistically define the climate boundaries of the „old Arctic“—or how much variability can naturally occur from year to year—and then to identify when human-caused warming will push the Arctic beyond those natural bounds and into a new climate.
5. The future projections used for the study are based on the RCP8.5 high-end scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases. Reduced emissions would lessen the extent of climate change in the Arctic. The shifting climate has wide-ranging enormous consequences for ecosystems, water resource management, flood planning, and infrastructure.
6. The far north is warming more rapidly than lower-latitude regions, which is due to a process known as Arctic amplification. This occurs because light-colored sea ice, which reflects heat back into space, is replaced by darker ocean water, which traps heat. In addition, relatively warm ocean waters are no longer shielded in the winter as effectively by the insulating properties of thick sea ice.
7. The changes in Arctic climate are so profound that the average extent of sea ice in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has dropped by 31% since the first decade of the satellite era (1979-88).
8. Landrum and Holland wanted to determine if this decline shows that the Arctic climate has fundamentally changed. They also wanted to study changes to two other key aspects that are indicative of the frozen state of Arctic climate: air temperatures in the fall and winter, and the seasonal transition in precipitation from mostly snow to mostly rain.
9. To answer these questions, they turned to multiple simulations from five of the world’s leading climate models that have been used for an international research project known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, or CMIP5. The large number of simulations enabled them to assemble a statistically significant picture of Arctic climate, allowing them to differentiate year-to-year natural climate variability from a transition to a new Arctic climate.
10. The scientists compared the model output to observations, confirming that the models were accurately capturing past climate and therefore could reliably simulate future climate.
11. They then applied statistical techniques to determine when climatic changes exceeded the bounds of natural variability. For this last question, they identified a different climate as emerging when the 10-year average was at least two standard deviations away from the average of the climate in the decade 1950-59.
12. In other words, if the sea ice extent changed so much that the average in, say, the 1990s was lower in 97.7% of all cases than the sea ice extent for any year in the 1950s, then the 1990s were defined as a new climate.
13. When they applied these techniques to sea ice extent, they found that the Arctic has already entered a new climate. Each of the five models showed sea ice retreating so dramatically that a new climate for sea ice had emerged in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
14. Looking forward, they also found that the Arctic may start to experience largely ice-free conditions in the next several decades. Several of the models indicated that the Arctic could become mostly ice free for 3-10 months annually by the end of the century, based on a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.
15. In terms of air temperatures, they focused on autumn and winter, which are strongly influenced by the summertime reduction of sea ice and the subsequent timing of the ice regrowth. They found that the air temperatures over the ocean will enter a new climate during the first half or middle of this century, with air temperatures over land warming substantially later in the century.
16. The seasonal cycle of precipitation will change dramatically by the middle of the century. If emissions persist at a high level, most continental regions will experience an increase in the rainy season of 20-60 days by mid-century and 60-90 days by the end of the century. In some Arctic regions, rain may occur any month of the year by century’s end.
17. The Arctic is likely to experience extremes in sea ice, temperature, and precipitation that are far outside anything that we’ve experienced before. We need to change our definition of what Arctic climate is.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

1. The essence of this research paper is that the failed „Ice-Free-Arctic“ fear has been resurrected and re-christened as a „New Climate State„.
2. The paper is based on the assumption that observed year to year declines in September minimum Arctic sea ice extent are driven by anthropogenic global warming and that therefore these trends can be moderated and controlled with climate action to moderate the rate of warming. However no empirical evidence is provided to establish that critical causation relationship.
3. In related posts it is shown that correlation analysis does not show that September minimum sea ice extent or volume is responsive to anthropogenic global warming temperatures over the Arctic at an annual time scale. LINK#1 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/07/precipitous-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/ LINK#2 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/28/sea-ice-extent-area-1979-2018/
4. In the context of the results of correlation analysis presented in the linked documents in item 3 above, it is noted that the ocean floor of the Arctic is geologically very active with significant mantle plume and volcanic activity as described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/ . As a result, it is not possible to understand ice melt phenomena in this region purely as atmospheric phenomena. The continued and intensified effort by climate science to do so is a reflection of a debilitating atmosphere bias in that discipline.
5. In Part 3 and Part 4 below we present a history in climate science of an obsession with an ice free Arctic and its positive feedback implications. This history implies that the attempt to establish a fear based activism against fossil fuel emissions with a scary spectacle of an ice free Arctic has largely failed to the extent that the phrase „Ice free Arctic“ has lost its potency as a tool for fear based activism against fossil fuels.
6. The ice free Arctic fears presented in the paper under review must be understood in this context. The failed effort over decades to create the fear of an ice free Arctic has diminished the credibility and potency of the phrase „ice free Arctic“ and a new language was necessary to present that case. The new language stated as „THE ARCTIC IS TRANSITIONING TO A NEW CLIMATE STATE“ is best understood in this context as a continuation of the failed ice free Arctic fear.
7. The failure of the ICE FREE ARCTIC fear must be addressed in terms of the data and not with new language and new climate model projections to re-create the failed ice free Arctic fearology. More importantly, as a science and a scientific endeavor, climate science must cease and desist from a need to present climate data packaged in a way to create fear particularly so with an excessive reliance on climate models armed with the right kind of assumptions to come to fearful conclusions. ADVOCACY BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CREATES A BIAS IN THEIR WORK SUCH THAT THEIR FINDINGS LOSE CREDIBILITY AS SEEN IN THE SORDID HISTORY OF THE „ICE FREE ARCTIC“ PRESENTED BELOW.

PART-3: ICE FREE ARCTIC FEARS IN THE CLIMATE SCIENCE LITERATURE

Jakobson, Linda. „China prepares for an ice-free Arctic.“ SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security 2010.2 (2010). China Prepares for an Ice-Free ArcticThis paper addresses how China is preparing for, and approaching the issues involved in, an ice-free Arctic Ocean. It explores the thinking of Chinese scholars and officials on the political aspects of change in the Arctic. It presents an overview of China’s security, scientific, and commercial pursuits in the Arctic. It also outlines the ways in which China approaches the international politics of the Arctic. Though China does not have a coast on the Arctic Ocean, it is nevertheless interested in the shorter shipping time and access to resources that a more navigable Arctic could provide.

Rainville, Luc, and Rebecca A. Woodgate. „Observations of internal wave generation in the seasonally ice‐free Arctic.“ Geophysical Research Letters 36.23 (2009). The Arctic is generally considered a low energy ocean. Using mooring data from the northern Chukchi Sea, we confirm that this is mainly because of sea‐ice impeding input of wind energy into the ocean. When sea‐ice is present, even strong storms do not induce significant oceanic response. However, during ice‐free seasons, local storms drive strong inertial currents (>20 cm/s) that propagate throughout the water column and significantly deepen the surface mixed layer. The large vertical shear associated with summer inertial motions suggests a dominant role for localized and seasonal vertical mixing in Arctic Ocean dynamics. Our results imply that recent extensive summer sea‐ice retreat will lead to significantly increased internal wave generation especially over the shelves and also possibly over deep waters. This internal wave activity will likely dramatically increase upper‐layer mixing in large areas of the previously quiescent Arctic, with important ramifications for ecosystems and ocean dynamics.

Sigmond, Michael, John C. Fyfe, and Neil C. Swart. „Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement.“ Nature Climate Change 8.5 (2018): 404-408. Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5–2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

Overpeck, Jonathan T., et al. „Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice‐free state.“ Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 86.34 (2005): 309-313. The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial‐interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice‐free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback‐enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state.

Screen, James A., and Daniel Williamson. „Ice-free Arctic at 1.5° C?.“ Nature Climate Change 7.4 (2017): 230-231. We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P ≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5∘C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P > 99%) for global warming of +2∘C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5∘C warming (P ≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P ≈ 10%) to
disappear even for +2∘C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5∘C to 2∘C global warming.

Cai, Wei-Jun, et al. „Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an ice-free Arctic Ocean basin.“ Science 329.5991 (2010): 556-559. It has been predicted that the Arctic Ocean will sequester much greater amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere as a result of sea ice melt and increasing primary productivity. However, this prediction was made on the basis of observations from either highly productive ocean margins or ice-covered basins before the recent major ice retreat. We report here a high-resolution survey of sea-surface CO2 concentration across the Canada Basin, showing a great increase relative to earlier observations. Rapid CO2 invasion from the atmosphere and low biological CO2 drawdown are the main causes for the higher CO2, which also acts as a barrier to further CO2 invasion. Contrary to the current view, we predict that the Arctic Ocean basin will not become a large atmospheric CO2 sink under ice-free conditions.

Wang, Muyin, and James E. Overland. „A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models.“ Geophysical Research Letters 39.18 (2012). Three years ago we proposed that the summer Arctic would be nearly sea ice free by the 2030s; “nearly” is interpreted as sea ice extent less than 1.0 million km². We consider this estimate to be still valid based on projections of updated climate models (CMIP5) and observational data. Similar to previous models (CMIP3), CMIP5 still shows a wide spread in hindcast and projected sea ice loss among different models. Further, there is no consensus in the scientific literature for the cause of such a spread in results for CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 model mean sea ice extents are closer to observations than CMIP3, the rates of sea ice reduction in most model runs are slow relative to recent observations. All CMIP5 models do show loss of sea ice due to increased anthropogenic forcing relative to pre‐industrial control runs. Applying the same technique of model selection and extrapolation approach to CMIP5 as we used in our previous paper, the interval range for a nearly sea ice free Arctic is 14 to 36 years, with a median value of 28 years. Relative to a 2007 baseline, this suggests a nearly sea ice free Arctic in the 2030s

Liu, Jiping, et al. „Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic.“ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110.31 (2013): 12571-12576. This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ∼1.7 million km² in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km²) in 2054–2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ∼1.7 million km² in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

Jahn, Alexandra, et al. „How predictable is the timing of a summer ice‐free Arctic?.“ Geophysical Research Letters 43.17 (2016): 9113-9120. Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice‐free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

PART-4: ICE FREE ARCTIC FEARS IN THE MEDIA

1. 1999, STUDY SHOWS ARCTIC ICE SHRINKING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING. Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. Therefore the ice melt is caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases.
2. 1999, WARM ARCTIC MAY ENHANCE GLOBAL WARMING. A sophisticated computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature or snowfall on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought.
3. 2004, GRIM SIGNS OF GLOBAL WARMING Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes that are already under way. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. These changes should serve as a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
4. 2004, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
   An unprecedented 4-year study of the Arctic shows that polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinct. Arctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel.
5. 2004, GLOBAL WARMING TO MELT GREENLAND ICE SHEET
   A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO
   2) and global warming are not reduced.
6. 2004, RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE
   The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report says: increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%; polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming”.
7. 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE
   The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The findings support the broad scientific consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of emissions from cars, factories and power plants.
8. 2005: METHANE BOMB IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA
   Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. This scare is repeated in 2007 saying that global warming is causing the Alaska coast to melt. More info: [LINK]
9. 2007: WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED
   Ahead of the Bali meeting in 2007, climate scientists flooded the media with press releases that were increasingly alarmist in their pitch to save the planet from fossil fuels, so much so that they got carried away and announced that it was too late to save the planet for we had passed the tipping point because the damage done by the carbon dioxide already in the air had put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that would lead us to climate doom whether or not we cut emissions. Soon thereafter, having realized their folly, they quickly reversed themselves just in time for Bali by saying that there was still time to save the planet after all. More info: [LINK]
10. 2007: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND TO MELT
    A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. More info: [LINK]
11. 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING
    Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. [LINK]
12. 2007: THE ICE FREE ARCTIC CLAIMS GAIN MOMENTUM
    The unusual summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 has encouraged climate science to warn the world that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer and that could happen as soon as 2080 or maybe 2060 or it could even be 2030. This time table got shorter and shorter until, without a “scientific” explanation, the ice free year was brought up to 2013. In the meantime, the data showed that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted but did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009. More info:  [LINK]
13. 2007: CLIMATE CHANGE REACHES A TIPPING POINT
    Since 1998, and most recently in 2007, we have been told on a fairly regular basis that climate change caused by our use of fossil fuels has reached the “tipping point”. When asked to define the term they said that it is not a point of no return and that a definition would be forthcoming; but that there is no doubt that we have reached the tipping point in 2007. More info: [LINK]
14. 2007: CLIMATE ACTION EVEN IF THERE ARE ERRORS IN THE CLIMATE MODEL
    Climate scientists say that errors in their climate model do not detract from the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions because the reduction can only do good and can do no harm. They also warn us that contrarians that say otherwise are paid agents of the fossil fuel industry and not real scientists. More info: [LINK]
15. 2007/2009: POLAR BEARS WILL BE DRIVEN TO EXTINCTION 
    Climate scientists say that the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and that therefore the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. More info: [LINK]
16. 2008: POSITIVE FEEDBACK: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL
    Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. More info: [LINK]
17. 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008, 2013, 2030, OR 2100
    The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007
    The IPCC has taken note and has revised its projection of an ice free Arctic first from 2008 to 2013 and then again from 2013 to 2030. The way things are going it may be revised again to the year 2100. More info: [LINK]
18. 2008: IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF PETERMANN GLACIER IN GREENLAND 
    Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and concluded that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. Yet, scientists who has been travelling to Greenland for years to study glaciers say that the crack in the glacier is normal and not different from other cracks seen in the 1990s. More info: [LINK]
19. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING IS THE CAUSE OF ALL ICE MELT EVENTS
    When there was a greater focus on Antarctica climate scientists said that global warming was melting the West Antarctic Ice Shelf; but the melting was found to be localized and with an active volcano underneath the melting and the attention of “melt forecast” climate science shifted to Arctic sea ice after the an extensive summer melt was observed in September 2007. More info: [LINK]
20. 2008: THE POLAR BEAR IS THREATENED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
    The survival of the polar bear is threatened because man made global warming is melting ice in the Arctic. It is true that the Arctic sea ice extent was down in negative territory in September 2007. This event emboldened global warming scaremongers to declare it a climate change disaster caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and to issue a series of scenarios about environmental holocaust yet to come. More info: [LINK]
21. 2009: OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS CAUSING GREENLAND GLACIERS TO MELT
    Man-made global warming is causing Greenland’s glaciers to melt at an alarming rate. By the year 2100 all the ice there will have melted causing a calamitous rise in the sea level that will inundate Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bangkok, New Orleans, and atolls in the Pacific. More info: [LINK]
22. 2009: CATASTROPHIC ICE MELT NEEDS TREATY AT COPENHAGEN
    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have caused the following alarming changes to our planet: (1) ice covering the Arctic Ocean shrank in 2007 to its smallest since satellite records began. Melting permafrost in Siberia will release large quantities of methane into the atmosphere and hasten global warming.
23. 2009: SUMMER ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IN 2009 THE 3RD LOWEST ON RECORD
    The second lowest was 2008 and the first lowest was 2007. This is not a trend that shows that things are getting worse. It shows that things are getting better and yet it is being sold and being bought as evidence that things are getting worse due to rising fossil fuel emissions. More info: [LINK]
24. 2009: USE OF FOSSIL FUELS CAUSING GREENLAND’S GLACIERS TO MELT
    In 2005 two glaciers in Greenland were found to be moving faster than they were in 2001. Scientists concluded from these data that the difference observed was a a long term trend of glacial melt in Greenland and that carbon dioxide was the cause of this trend. The assumed trend was then extrapolated forward and we were told that carbon dioxide would cause the land based ice mass of Greenland to be discharged to the sea and raise the sea level by six meters. They said that the only way out of the devastation was to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. However, in 2009, just before a meeting in Copenhagen where these deep cuts in emissions were to be negotiated, it was found that the glaciers had returned to their normal rate of discharge. More info: [LINK]
25. 2009: THREATENED POLAR BEARS “STARE AT THE MELTING POINT”
    Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels is driving polar bears to extinction and threatening the livelihood of the people of Nunavut. More info: [LINK]
26. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY 2029
    An alarm is raised that the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was caused by humans using fossil fuels and it portends that in 20 years human caused global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free in the summer raising sea levels and harming wildlife. More info: [LINK]
27. 2009: WARMING OCEANS MELT GREENLAND GLACIERS
    Some glaciers on north and northeast Greenland terminate in fiords with long glacier tongues that extend into the sea. It is found that the warming of the oceans caused by our use of fossil fuels is melting these icy tongues and raising the specter of devastation by sea level rise. More info: [LINK]
28. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012
    Climate scientists continue to extrapolate the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 to claim that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame. More info: [LINK]
29. 2009: THE SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE ARCTIC WILL BE GONE
    Summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive in 2007. These data show that warming due to our carbon dioxide emissions are causing summer Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether. More info: [LINK]
30. 2009: GLOBAL WARMING KILLING OFF THE CARIBOU IN THE YUKON
    In 1989 there were 178000 Porcupine caribou in the Yukon and “their number now is estimated to be 100,000” because global warming is killing off the caribou. Global warming causes freezing rain in the calving season and that makes it hard for calving caribou to feed. But if we don’t cherry pick the start of the study period as 1989 and look at all the available data we find that the population rose steadily from 100000 in 1972 to 178000 in 1989 and then decreased steadily down to 120000 in 2005. These data suggest, and caribou biologists agree, that caribou populations go through a 30 to 40-year cycle of growth and decay. This population dynamic cannot be related to global warming or carbon dioxide. More info: [LINK]
31. 2010: ICELAND IS TOAST: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING VOLCANIC ERUPTION
    Fossil fuel emissions cause global warming, global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions (Ice cap thaw may awaken Icelandic volcanoes, April 17, 2010). That it was geothermal activity that caused the melting of the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier is not mentioned. Instead climate science tells us that the we must cut fossil fuel emissions to save Iceland from climate change hell. [LINK] [LINK]
32. 2010: CLIMATE CHANGE IS KILLING OFF POLAR BEARS AND THE WALRUSES
    Global warming is melting ice in the Arctic and devastating the ecosystem that nurtures the habitats of the Polar Bear and the Walrus. Urgent climate action is needed to save these great creatures of the North. More info: [LINK]

Posted by: chaamjamal on: September 16, 2020

Thongchai Thailand

Facebook, accountable only to its investors, now intends to pose as a proxy authority on the world’s present and future climate. But the author of the article below wants Facebook to go further and impose its own views on people, while hiding behind the usual catch-all accusation of ‘climate change denialism’ but offering no definition of it. Presumably suggesting that a carbon dioxide level of 0.04% in the atmosphere might not be a massive climate problem is beyond the pale, and should be suppressed? Without clarity about what is out of bounds in discussion, the risk of unfair censorship is obvious.
– – –
Even as Facebook, the world’s largest social media platform, admits that climate change “is real” and that “the science is unambiguous and the need to act grows more urgent by the day” the platform appears unwilling to take steps to really stand up to the climate change denialism that circulates on its platform, says Techcrunch. 

The company is set to achieve net zero carbon emissions and be supported fully by renewable energy in its own operations this year.

But as the corporate world slaps a fresh coat of green paint on its business practices, Facebook is looking to get out in front with the launch of a Climate Science Information Center to “connect people with science-based information.”

The company is announcing a new information center, designed after its COVID-19 pandemic response. The center is designed to connect people to factual and up-to-date climate information, according to the company.

So far, Facebook says that more than 2 billion people have been directed to resources from health authorities with its COVID-19 response.

The company said that it will use The Climate Science Information Center to feature facts, figures and data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their global network of climate science partners, including the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others.

This center is launching in France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. to start.

While Facebook has been relatively diligent in taking down COVID-19 misinformation that circulates on the platform, removing 7 million posts and labeling another 98 million more for distributing coronavirus misinformation, the company has been accused of being far more sanguine when it comes to climate change propaganda and pseudoscience.

Full article here. 
– – –
Note to Talkshop commenters: Use of the full ‘d’ word is likely to trigger moderation, which may delay publication.

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September 16, 2020 at 05:18AM

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t Mike Maguire – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a government body led by Republican appointee Heath Tarbert, has just recommended imposition of a carbon tax.

Climate change is huge risk for the American financial system, a major new bipartisan report says

Last Updated: Sept. 12, 2020 at 11:34 a.m. ETFirst Published: Sept. 9, 2020 at 2:34 p.m. ETBy 

Rachel Koning Beals

A carbon tax features in CFTC report that aims to unite disparate federal efforts

The U.S. financial system, including banks, agricultural and oil interests, as well as regulators and investors, requires a unified front in accounting for climate-change risk, says the first comprehensive government report on such efforts.

Notably, the report released Tuesday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an affiliated panel representing several sectors revives a call for taxing carbon pollution.

…

“As we’ve seen in the past few weeks alone, extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation from the severe wildfires of the West to the devastating Midwest derecho and damaging Gulf Coast hurricanes. This trend — which is increasingly becoming our new normal — will likely continue to worsen in frequency and intensity as a result of a changing climate,” said CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam, one of two Democrats on the five-member body. 

“Beyond their physical devastation and tragic loss of human life and livelihood, escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth,” he said. While wildfires and hurricanes occur for myriad reasons, their frequency and intensity has factored into the climate-change discussion.

…

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cftcs-groundbreaking-climate-change-report-sounds-a-bipartisan-alarm-on-costly-risks-for-u-s-financial-system-11599676452

The commission report, MANAGING CLIMATE RISK IN THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM, is available here.

From the report;

…

This report begins with a fundamental finding—financial markets will only be able to channel resources efficiently to activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions if an economy-wide price on carbon is in place at a level that reflects the true social cost of those emissions. Addressing climate change will require policy frameworks that incentivize the fair and effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In the absence of such a price, financial markets will operate suboptimally, and capital will continue to flow in the wrong direction, rather than toward accelerating the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. At the same time, policymakers must be sensitive to the distributional impacts of carbon pricing and other policies and ensure that the burden does not fall on low-to-moderate income households and on historically marginalized communities. This report recognizes that pricing carbon is beyond the remit of financial regulators; it is the job of Congress.

…

In addition to the absence of an economy-wide carbon pricing regime in the United States, other barriers are holding back capital from flowing to sustainable, low-carbon activities. One involves the misperception among mainstream investors that sustainable or ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investments necessarily involve trading off financial returns relative to traditional investment strategies. Another is that the market for products widely considered to be “green” or “sustainable” remains small relative to the needs of institutional investors. In addition, lack of trust in the market over concerns of potential “greenwashing” (misleading claims about the extent to which a financial product or service is truly climate-friendly or environmentally sustainable) may be holding back the market. And policy uncertainty also remains a barrier, including in areas such as regulation affecting the financial products that U.S. companies may offer their employees through their employer-provided retirement plans.

These barriers can be addressed through a variety of initiatives. For example, a wide range of government efforts—through credit guarantees and other means of attracting private capital by reducing the risks of low-carbon investments—catalyze capital flows toward innovation and deployment of net-zero emissions technologies. A new, unified federal umbrella could help coordinate and expand these government programs and leverage institutional capital to maximize impact and align the various federal programs. Climate finance labs, regulatory sandboxes, and other regulatory initiatives can also drive innovation by improving dialogue and learning for both regulators and market innovators, as well as via business accelerators, grants, and competitions providing awards in specific areas of need. In addition, clarifying existing regulations on fiduciary duty, including for example, those concerning retirement and pension plans, to confirm the appropriateness of making investment decisions using climate-related factors—and more broadly, ESG factors that impact risk-return—can help unlock the flow of capital to sustainable activities and investments.

…

Read more: MANAGING CLIMATE RISK IN THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Climate risk backed by a carbon tax would be a dream product for commodity traders, because the underlying problem doesn’t actually exist. Profitable companies could be hit with an endless series of terrifying shakedowns, from risk traders in smart suits offering protection from SEC demands for more disclosure of climate risk exposure. Traders could bundle and sell subprime climate audit risk insurance products to pension funds. The products could be financed indirectly with soft loans, which are also part of the commission recommendation. No end of fun.

The only people who would suffer from this brutal climate rent seeking proposal would be ordinary people, who would shoulder the ultimate cost burden of all these expensive new risk products through higher prices and poorer quality of life.

The pressure on politicians standing in the path of this gigantic bipartisan money printing scheme must be utterly immense. Billions of dollars for the taking. All they need is for one man, or one small group of people, to say “yes”.

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September 16, 2020 at 04:51AM

SEPTEMBER 16, 2020 CAP ALLON

A heavy “three-day” snow event is buffeting New Zealand’s South Island, closing roads and increasing the avalanche threat to its highest level.

Cardrona and Treble Cone general manager Bridget Legnavsky said snow conditions were fantastic for the time of year: Treble had received 40cm (15.7 inches) through Monday night, but there was much more to come.

Metservice meteorologist Lewis Ferris said Wednesday will see snow down to 1,200m (3,900ft), and by Thursday the polar cold will drop the snow level to 500m (1,640ft) — potentially record-breaking accumulations could be experienced by some.

It’s hard to know whether it’s spring or winter in Southland and Otago, reads the opening line of recent stuff.co.nz article. Deep snow is keeping the Milford Road closed for a third consecutive day, with Milford Road alliance manager Kevin Thompson saying the avalanche risk has also been assessed as high.

The Mountain Safety Council issued a spring avalanche warning on Wednesday, saying avalanche danger levels have reached a winter-season high as heavy snowfall has blanketed alpine New Zealand.

Currently, six regions are classified as “high” danger for avalanches and four are “considerable”. High danger regions Arthur’s Pass and Wanaka each recorded several avalanches last week. The other high danger zones are Aoraki/Mt Cook, Queenstown, Fiordland, and Nelson Lakes. Tongariro, Craigieburn Ranges, Ohau, and Two Thumbs are all at “considerable” danger levels.

“The silver lining is that the past few storms have brought plenty of snow which should extend the backcountry season, so there should be plenty of good days ahead — no need to rush,” said Chief executive of the Mountain Safety Council Mike Daisley to the region’s skiers and snowboarders.

Looking forward, a heavy snow watch to 500m (1,640ft) has been issued for Southland north of Riversdale, Clutha north of Tapanui, Central Otago and inland Dunedin for Thursday afternoon.

Stay tuned for updates.

New Zealand’s first day of Spring delivers “Bitterly Cold” Temperatures and “Widespread Snow” to the South Island

https://electroverse.net/new-zealands-first-day-of-spring-delivers-bitterly-cold-temperatures-and-widespread-snow/embed/#?secret=OA8VyACRYg

I’m sick of the lies — lies made a thousands times worse by the climatic reality that is actually fast-barreling towards us: the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM is returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Prepare for the COLD— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach — Twitter are purging followers, and Facebook are labeling posts as “false”. Be sure to subscribe to receive new post notifications by email (the box is located in the sidebar >>> or scroll down if on mobile).

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The site receives ZERO funding, and never has. So any way you can, help us spread the message so others can survive and thrive in the coming times.

Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

“New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?” by Dr Theodor Landscheidt

https://electroverse.net/new-little-ice-age-instead-of-global-warming-by-dr-theodor-landscheidt/embed/#?secret=1kudqifCDV

The post 1.3 Feet of Spring Snow Buries New Zealand’s Ski-fields + there’s much more where that came from appeared first on Electroverse.

SEPTEMBER 15, 2020 CAP ALLON

NASA has been warning of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) for the past decade-or-so, and says the sun could be in a GSM phase for 10% to 30% of the time. However, the modern AGW dogma has stopped the agency short of drawing a connection between reduced solar output and “ice age” type weather events.

The sun’s output is not constant–despite what the IPCC would have you believe. Its emissions are modulated by its planets (namely conjunctions of Saturn, Jupiter, Earth and Venus) due to the interacting gravitational effects, and also by internal mechanisms.

NASA says it is able to predict sunspot numbers for the next cycle from magnetic activity of the sun hundreds of thousands of kilometres below its surface. For many years now (since at least 2010), the agency has believed that this deep activity is so weak that there may be very few sunspots in the next solar cycle (25): “Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. There is evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion”.

Sunspot activity during a Grand Solar Minimum plays a significant role in producing extreme “ice-age” type cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere while, paradoxically, at the same time causes Arctic regions to become warmer — this chimes with what we’re seeing today, and also neatly ties-in with NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Map’:

And that’s not to say that Grand Solar Minimums have no impact in the Southern Hemisphere, but there are few issues. Water being a heat sink is one, and because the Southern Hemisphere is 81% oceans and lakes, changes in heat energy from the sun (or any other source) will have less effect than it does its northern cousin which is 61% water. In addition, the northern hemisphere has more than double the land mass of the southern hemisphere at 30 degrees latitude, more than 10 times at 40 degrees, and around 28 times the land mass of the southern hemisphere at 50 degrees. At 60 degrees there is no land in the southern hemisphere but about 61% of the northern hemisphere is covered by land. Because of these differences between the hemispheres it doesn’t make sense to compare any climate change in Europe, North America, Northern Asia and the Mediterranean countries with any climate change that might be occurring in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and South America. This is partly why the term “global warming” is so disingenuous: to talk about climate change in a global context is quite misleading as the leads and lags in the climatic effects of small temperature changes vary enormously from region to region. These lags, for example, might be very short in a landlocked region like Switzerland to decades on an island like Tonga in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

The reduction in solar output during a GSM has also been found to increase the risks of large earthquakes and powerful volcanic eruptions–the latter can exaggerate these “ice-age” type cold weather events by releasing sun-shading particulates into the stratosphere. This uptick in seismic and volcanic activity is thought to be caused by an influx of Cosmic Rays (allowed to enter Earth’s atmosphere via a reduction in solar wind) which in turn heat the muons in silica-rich magma.

The political agenda of the day may be preventing NASA from linking a big drop in solar activity with falling global average temperatures, but they do indicate the complexity of the issue in a recent Sun-Climate report: “Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem.”

The sun’s complex “top down” effect on climate is, basically, due to its relatively variable output of UV spectrum photons. The dynamic equilibrium and the heat of the air in the ozone layer are affected by long term relative changes in the photon emissions of the sun across the UV spectrum and the proton and electron emissions that arrive via the solar wind. When relatively low emissions of EUV –compared to UVA and UVB– occur then less ozone is formed and the temperature of the stratosphere and upper troposphere reduces.

NOAA’s Isaac Held took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it: “The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause [and] this alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies. In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.”

This is a key point.

Held is saying that the jet streams are altered due to temperature changes in the polar stratosphere and it is these altered jet streams that affect the tracks of storms and, by implication, other weather systems. As often discussed on Electroverse, low solar activity is clearly impacting the jet streams: reverting their usual tight ZONAL (east-to-west) flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL (north-to-south) flow:

The Changing Jet Stream and Global Cooling

https://electroverse.net/the-changing-jet-stream-and-global-cooling/embed/#?secret=wOvHoILCCb

This (the sun-climate) is a painfully complicated issue, and no scientists on the planet has all the answers. I certainly don’t, but what I’m offering you is a version of events far closer to the truth than today’s politically driven dogma.

Increasing CO2 is not the cause of the so-called ‘climate breakdown’ we’re experiencing — no, the truth lies in the historically low solar activity we’re currently receiving, the truth lies in the Grand Solar Minimum.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Prepare for the COLD— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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The post NASA has been warning of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) for the past Decade appeared first on Electroverse.

Unless this scheme is revived, the UK government is putting even more pressure on its ridiculous and damaging ‘net zero’ energy policy. The likely gap between future electricity supply and demand seems wider than ever.

H/T Hatter Eggburn
– – –
Plans for a £15-£20bn nuclear power plant in Wales have been scrapped, reports BBC News.

Work on the Wylfa Newydd project on Anglesey was suspended in January last year because of rising costs after Hitachi failed to reach a funding agreement with the UK government.

Isle of Anglesey council said the company had now confirmed in writing it is withdrawing from the project.

Council leader Llinos Medi said: “This is very disappointing, particularly at such a difficult time economically.”

Hitachi shelved the scheme, the biggest energy project ever proposed in Wales, over funding issues.

Anglesey council said it had received a letter from the Tokyo-based parent company confirming its decision.

Developer Horizon Nuclear, which is owned by Hitachi, said it would not comment.
. . .
Analysis by BBC Wales business correspondent Brian Meechan

As one of Wales’ biggest proposed construction projects, Wylfa Newydd has faced turbulent times.

The company behind it, Hitachi, has always been concerned about the costs of building the new nuclear power plant.

The UK government went some way in offering financial support to the project but it wasn’t enough to satisfy Hitachi’s concerns over the financial risks.

The UK government also held a consultation on plans that would see energy customers pay upfront for the costs of construction.

The industry has been waiting for months for an outcome to that.

When the UK government said nuclear was part of its push for green energy, the industry thought it was a positive sign for Wylfa Newydd.

But critics question how green nuclear energy really is, not to mention how safe it is.

Wales has been called the “land of artists’ impressions” with many big schemes that are talked about and never happen.

Full report and analysis here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

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September 16, 2020 at 03:42AM