This post is a response to the finding that AGW climate change is driving up malaria fatalities in Africa. Citation: Smith, Mark, et al. „LIS-MAL estimates of hydro-climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa (1971-2100).“ (2020).
Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 in 2010.
In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 in 1980 to 1 613 000 in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 in 2010.
Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010.
Data from: Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis. Author links open overlay panelProfChristopher JLMurrayMDaLisa CRosenfeldABaStephen SLimPhDaKathryn GAndrewsABaKyle ForemanMPHaDianaHaringBScaNancyFullmanMPHaMohsenNaghaviMDaProfRafaelLozanoMDaProfAlan DLopezPhDb
The population of Africa in 1980=478E6, 2004=894E6, 2010=1000E6. The malaria fatalities for these years are 1980=493,000/478e6=10.3 per thousand, 2004=1613000/894000000 = 18 per thousand, 2010=1133000/1000e6 = 1.13 per thousand. The significance of the year 2004 is that it was then that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation malarial control program for Africa was implemented.
As seen in the first chart above, the declining trend has persisted until 2017. The second and third charts above shows that global trends in malaria case and fatality rates per 1000 population have been on a downward trend since 1990.
These data do not imply that climate change is causing higher malaria rates and if global warming is doing so only in Africa and not elsewhere in the globe, an explanation for that anomaly is required. The other point of note is that even if climate change is driving up malaria cases and fatalities, the BMGF malaria control program in Africa shows that such interventions are a more logical response to such malaria outbreaks than climate action in the form of cutting fossil fuel emissions.