“Barring a major breakthrough, the pandemic will infect and kill about the same number of people whether a lock-down is in place or not.”
– Robin Willcourt MD
Lock-downs just mean that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in the pandemic
Robin Willcourt MD
We cannot ‘legislate’ against a virus and lockdowns cannot be 100% enforced. That is because essential workers, among others, are required to go to work, leave their homes and safe places and continue to function amid pandemics –and guess what? Many essential workers are healthcare providers.
Many of these people are going to become infected no matter how expertly PPEs and other means are used, simply because these people are human and some will inadvertently break the barrier through misuse, or, through neglect in applying their gear properly. This is how ‘leaks’ in the system so often occur.
The end result is that when viruses that are so easily transmitted such as COVID-19 and the typical influenzas are, millions of people around the world will inevitably become infected. Breakdowns in the system occur! That is how pandemics happen.
The question that was initially considered was: what are the most effective methods for altering the progression of the virus? ‘Flattening the curve’ became the goal, and initially spared critical care services from overload but it also prolonged the pandemic.
Only when, and if, an effective treatment or vaccine is developed before the natural course of the disease is completed can the otherwise inevitable number of infected people and deaths be prevented: that is to say, barring a major breakthrough, the pandemic will infect and kill about the same number of people whether a lock-down is in place or not.
In principle, without a lock-down the virus will spread more quickly but the pandemic will end sooner. Slowing the spread, the goal of lock-downs just means that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in pandemic.
We were naïve to think we could stop this. Our politicians acted before thinking this through, as did many of the ‘experts’ in infectious disease, acting in god-like roles, without any Heavenly Powers available to them.
The worst case scenario, and inevitable as it now turns out, was for flares and smolders to keep occurring globally, in a prolonged and miserable fashion, resulting in economic and health chaos for all of us.
If the vaccines in trials are very effective, the course of this pandemic may change, and three cheers for that. If not, we MUST return to whatever the new normal is going to be. The current ill-conceived mess is not a viable option. The proof of that is obvious to all, except for those who refuse to see it.
via Ice Age Now
August 31, 2020 at 12:41PM