August 29, 2020 Arctic Ice Returns to Mean

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The melting season this year showed ice extents much below the 13-year average, but the decline moderated in August and presently is close to the mean and to 2007.

As discussed below, the daily minimum on average occurs on day 260, but a given year may be earlier or later.  The 2020 minimum on day 239 will not likely stand, but stranger things have happened.  For now, MASIE is showing a jump of almost 300k km2 bringing yesterday very close to the 13-year average (-3.5%).  As is often the case, SII is showing less ice than MASIE, starting 11 days ago.  The table below shows the distribution of ice in the various regions of the Arctic Ocean.

Region2020241Day 241 Average2020-Ave.20072412020-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere48393545017305-1779524916182-76829
 (1) Beaufort_Sea80615455443425172070713599019
 (2) Chukchi_Sea35468625729097396142656212030
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea235822363889-128067311235511
 (4) Laptev_Sea7420192875-185455279554-272133
 (5) Kara_Sea3167946675-14996112935-81256
 (6) Barents_Sea023436-2343610037-10037
 (7) Greenland_Sea26277318923673536332635-69863
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence758632270-2468439777-32191
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago3425943177982479527160370991
 (10) Hudson_Bay2392226315-239351493-27571
 (11) Central_Arctic27660303012169-2461392966791-200761

The extent numbers show that this year’s melt is dominated by the surprisingly hot Siberian summer, leading to major deficits in all the Eurasian shelf seas–East Siberian, Laptev, Kara.  As well, the bordering parts of the Central Arctic show a sizeable deficit to average. These deficits are partly offset by surpluses on the CanAm side: Beaufort, Chukchi, Greenland Sea and CAA.

It is also the case that many regions have already registered their 2020 minimums.  And as discussed below, the marginal basins have little ice left to lose.

Background from Previous Post Outlook for Arctic Ice Minimum

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean is approaching the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at mid August from 2007 to yesterday as a context for anticipating this year’s annual minimum.  Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lower on or about day 260.

The Bigger Picture 

We are close to the annual Arctic ice extent minimum, which typically occurs on or about day 260 (mid September). Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where we can expect to find ice this September. Numbers are area units of Mkm2 (millions of square kilometers).

Day 26013 year
Arctic Regions200720102012201420152016201720182019Average
Central Arctic Sea2.673.162.642.982.932.923.072.912.972.93
BCE0.501.080.311.380.890.520.841.160.460.89
LKB0.290.240.020.190.050.280.260.020.110.16
Greenland & CAA0.560.410.410.550.460.450.520.410.360.46
B&H Bays0.030.030.020.020.100.030.070.050.010.04
NH Total4.054.913.405.134.444.204.764.563.914.48

The table includes three early years of note along with the last 6 years compared to the 13 year average for five contiguous arctic regions. BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at annual minimum, fairly consistently.  LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are inconsequential as of day 260.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

via Science Matters

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August 29, 2020 at 09:37AM

Author: uwe.roland.gross

Don`t worry there is no significant man- made global warming. The global warming scare is not driven by science but driven by politics. Al Gore and the UN are dead wrong on climate fears. The IPCC process is a perversion of science.