In CAISO Emergency Break Glass

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Here in the United California Socialist Republic, we have an insane bunch of laws about electricity. Number one among them requires the local utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PGE) to purchase a huge amount of expensive, unreliable solar energy. So of course, our electricity price increases have far outstripped those of our more sane neighboring states.

And what to we get for this investment in expensive generation schemes?

Unreliable energy. Yesterday at about 6:30 PM, they shut off the power to our entire neighborhood for three hours. Of course the public claim was that the hot weather just made it so the poor system couldn’t keep up, darn it, so we’re sorry but rolling outages are starting now … just kidding, they started before the announcement. I assure you I was as surprised as our neighbors … started my little Honda generator, strung out the extension cords, and got back to my life. Although I must confess, I did say some bad words, and I fear that I stated both clearly and loudly that the people in charges could go engage in unnatural sexual conduct with themselves and the horse they rode in on …

But this morning

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August 15, 2020 at 06:30PM

Hurricane trend detection

From SpringerLink

A new paper from Drs. Loehle and Staehling. Here is the abstract and references, i.e. the non-paywalled content.

I think the following is money shot.

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets.

Published: 

Craig Loehle & Erica Staehling

Natural Hazards (2020) Cite this article

Abstract

Because a change in the frequency (number/year) of hurricanes could be a result of climate change, we analyzed the historical record of Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricanes, as well as US continental accumulated cyclone energy to evaluate issues related to trend detection.

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets.

Given the χ2 distribution evinced by hurricane and major hurricane counts, we generated synthetic series to test the effect of segment length, demonstrating that shorter series were increasingly likely to exhibit spurious trends. Compared to synthetic data with the same mean, the historical all-storm data were more likely to exhibit short-term trends, providing some evidence for long-term persistence at timescales below 10 years.

Because this might be due to known climate modes, we examined the relationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and hurricane frequency in light of these short-term excursions. We found that while ratios of hurricane counts with AMO phase matched expectations, statistical tests were less clear due to noise. Over a period of 167 years, we found that an upward trend of roughly 0.7/century is sufficient to be detectable with 80% confidence over the range from 1 to 21 storms/year. Storm energy data 1900–2018 over land were also analyzed.

The trend was again zero. The pattern of spurious trends for short segments was again found. Results for AMO periods were similar to count data. Atlantic basin all storms and major storms (1950–2018) did not exhibit any trend over the whole period or after 1990. Major storms 1950–1989 exhibited a significant downward trend.

All-storm basin scale storms exhibited short-term trends matching those expected from a Poisson process. A new test for Poisson series was developed based on the 95% distribution of slopes for simulated data across a range of series lengths. Because short data series are inherently likely to yield spurious trends, care is needed when interpreting hurricane trend data.

References

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August 15, 2020 at 04:29PM

All is not lost

“There are still a few normal brains left amidst the technocracy (social engineering) frenzy.”
– Penelope

_________

All is not lost

Penelope

There are still a few normal brains left amidst the technocracy (social engineering) frenzy:

“Florida Sheriff Orders Deputies & Staff NOT to Wear Face Masks,” reads the headline.

“Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods sent an email Tuesday informing the approximately 900 people working in the department that “when you are on-duty/working as my employee and representing my Office – masks will not be worn,” the Ocala Star-Banner reports.

“Woods added that “effective immediately, any individual walking in to any one of our lobbies (which includes the main office and all district offices) that is wearing a mask will be asked to remove it.”

“[I]n light of the current events when it comes to the sentiment and/or hatred toward law enforcement in our country today, this is being done to ensure there is clear communication and for identification purposes of any individual walking into a lobby,” he said.

“We can debate and argue all day of why and why not,” Woods added. “The fact is, the amount of professionals that give the reason why we should, I can find the exact same amount of professionals that say why we shouldn’t.”

“The sheriff’s order came one day after Kent Guinn, the mayor in the county seat of Ocala, vetoed a city council ordinance requiring all indoor establishments, including houses of worship and government buildings, to display signs asking people to wear masks or risk a $25 fine. The council overrode Guinn’s veto on Wednesday.

“My (police) chief and I have talked about it. We will never write a fine. We’re just not going to do it,” Guinn said on Monday, referring to Ocala Police Department Chief Greg Graham.”

— a bit more here:
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/12/901756223/florida-sheriff-orders-deputies-and-sta

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August 15, 2020 at 04:52PM

CDC Details COVID-19’s Massive Mental Health Impact

https://www.medpagetoday.com/psychiatry/generalpsychiatry/88074?

CDC Details COVID-19’s Massive Mental Health Impact

— Young adults, people of color, essential workers, and adult caregivers particularly affected

by Elizabeth Hlavinka, Staff Writer, August 14, 2020

A gloomy portrait of a man wearing a protective mask looking out the window
Nearly 11% of American adults seriously considered suicide this June, according to CDC data.

Among 5,470 people surveyed in the last week of June:

  • 30.9% reported symptoms of an anxiety or a depressive disorder
  • 25.3% reported a traumatic or stressor-related disorder (TSRD)
  • 13.3% said they were using substances to cope with the pandemic’s stressors, said Rashon Lane, MA, of the CDC’s COVID-19 Response Team
  • 10.7% reported seriously considering suicide in the prior month, more than double the rate reported in a 2018 CDC survey, the researchers wrote in the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Specifically, the risk for suicidal ideation was elevated among respondents:

  • between ages 18 and 25 (25.5%)
  • Hispanic respondents (18.6%)
  • Black respondents (15.1%)
  • unpaid adult caregivers (30.7%)
  • essential workers (21.7%)

The „markedly“ high rates of mental and behavioral health conditions show the „broad impact of the pandemic and the need to prevent and treat these conditions,“ the authors wrote, adding that interventions to reduce these numbers should target financial strain, racial discrimination, social connectedness, and community supports for patients considering suicide.

Medical professionals cautioned that social isolation associated with social distancing, along with soaring unemployment rates, could further accelerate the national suicide crisis.

However, suicidal ideation should not be seen as an inevitability from this data, commented Jessica Gold, MD, MS, of the department of psychiatry at Washington University in St. Louis.

Instead, it should be seen as „a call for help,“ and motivate the government, employers, families, and individuals to focus on the mental health needs of the population, Gold said.

„This study says we need help, especially in certain populations, and mental health needs to be a focus of all of our conversations,“ she told MedPage Today in an email.

The web-based survey used the Patient Health Questionnaire to assess depression and anxiety symptoms and the Impact of Event Scale to assess pandemic-related TSRD. Substance use and suicidal ideation were self-reported.

Altogether, 40.9% reported having at least one mental or behavioral health condition. That proportion was higher among the following groups:

  • Young adults ages 18-24 (74.9%) and 25-44 (51.9%)
  • Hispanic respondents (52.1%)
  • Individuals who did not receive a high school diploma (66.2%)
  • Essential workers (54%)
  • Unpaid adult caregivers (66.6%)
  • Individuals with baseline mental health conditions (68.8%-88%)

Compared with CDC data from the second quarter of 2019, adults in this survey reported three times the rate of anxiety symptoms (25.5% vs 8.1%) and four times the rate of depression symptoms (24.3% vs 6.5%), the researchers stated. Overall, young people ages 18-24 had a far greater risk of considering suicide in the past 30 days than adults ages 45-64 (6.66, 95% CI 5.115-8.61) and adults ages 65 and up (12.51, 95% CI 7.88-19.86).

Hispanic and Black individuals were also at an elevated risk for anxiety or depressive symptoms, substance use, and suicidal ideation in the past 30 days compared with white respondents.

In an analysis of 1,497 respondents who also completed surveys in April and May, unpaid adult caregivers were more likely to start using substances to cope in June than they were in May (adjusted odds ratio 3.33, 95% CI1.75-6.31, P<0.001), and more likely to report new suicidal ideation in June (aOR 3.03,95% CI 1.20-7.63, P=0.019).

The survey relied on self-reported answers for some classifications and was web-based, both of which are limitations, Lane and co-authors noted.

If you or someone you know is considering suicide, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255.

______________________

**Comment**

This UW Study shows 2/3 of High School Athletes are experiencing depression, and anxiety over canceled sports:  https://upnorthnewswi.com/2020/07/15/uw-study-two-thirds-of-high-school-athletes-are-experiencing-depression-anxiety-over-canceled-sports/?

Please remember that all the mandates and orders have been made using flawed data:  https://madisonarealymesupportgroup.com/2020/08/04/lockdown-deaths-not-covid-deaths/

For more: 

Way past time to end lockdowns and restrictions.

https://madisonarealymesupportgroup.com/

No Trend In Hurricane Activity In 167 Years, New Empirical Study Shows

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data.

Source: Loehle & Staehling, Natural Hazards, August 2020

Hurricane trend detection

Abstract – Because a change in the frequency (number/year) of hurricanes could be a result of climate change, we analyzed the historical record of Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricanes, as well as US continental accumulated cyclone energy to evaluate issues related to trend detection.

Hurricane and major hurricane landfall counts exhibited no significant overall trend over 167 years of available data, nor did accumulated cyclone energy over the continental USA over 119 years of available data, although shorter-term trends were evident in all three datasets.

Given the χ2 distribution evinced by hurricane and major hurricane counts, we generated synthetic series to test the effect of segment length, demonstrating that shorter series were increasingly likely to exhibit spurious trends. Compared to synthetic data with the same mean, the historical all-storm data were more likely to exhibit short-term trends, providing some evidence for long-term persistence at timescales below 10 years. Because this might be due to known climate modes, we examined the relationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and hurricane frequency in light of these short-term excursions. We found that while ratios of hurricane counts with AMO phase matched expectations, statistical tests were less clear due to noise.

Over a period of 167 years, we found that an upward trend of roughly 0.7/century is sufficient to be detectable with 80% confidence over the range from 1 to 21 storms/year. Storm energy data 1900–2018 over land were also analyzed. The trend was again zero. The pattern of spurious trends for short segments was again found. Results for AMO periods were similar to count data.

Atlantic basin all storms and major storms (1950–2018) did not exhibit any trend over the whole period or after 1990. Major storms 1950–1989 exhibited a significant downward trend. All-storm basin scale storms exhibited short-term trends matching those expected from a Poisson process. A new test for Poisson series was developed based on the 95% distribution of slopes for simulated data across a range of series lengths. Because short data series are inherently likely to yield spurious trends, care is needed when interpreting hurricane trend data.

Full paper ($)

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August 15, 2020 at 02:15PM

California: Weather in the 21st Century includes rolling blackouts

By 2030 weather reports may map out tomorrows blackouts, today

Matthew Wright for the DailyMail

California orders rolling blackouts for up to two MILLION people as record-breaking heat wave grips the state with temperatures hitting 112 degrees and crowds flocking to beaches Rolling blackouts could affect up to 250,000 homes and businesses in the state Such a power cut has not been implemented since 2001, when there was a massive electric crisis San Joaquin Valley will see temperatures of 112 degrees and Los Angeles is expected to reach 96 degrees

So that’s a hot 44.4 C in the San Joaquin Valley, while L.A.’s extreme heatwave is all of 35. degrees C. These are the first set of rolling blackouts since 2001. Obviously the USA is behind Australia in the race to the Unreliable Future.

With temperatures soaring above 100 degrees in many parts of the state, and millions of residents stuck at home amid the coronavirus pandemic, experts feared the high demand for power would overwhelm the grid.

‘A Stage 3 Emergency is declared when demand outpaces available supply. Rotating power interruptions have been initiated to maintain stability of the electric grid,’ the Independent System Operator announced […]Rating: 10.0/10 (4 votes cast)

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August 15, 2020 at 01:38PM

Rolling Blackouts in California? Who could have guessed?

From KTVU

Residents asked to reduce power during the California heat wave

By Jana Katsuyama

News KTVU FOX 2

Recommendations on how to cut back on power usage during Flex Alert

The blistering heat wave is expected to tax the state’s power grid. A Flex Alert has been issued for Friday that asks Californians to reduce power usage from 3 to 10 p.m. KTVU’s Jana Katsuyama with tips on how to cut back

MARTINEZ, Calif. – A blistering heat wave over the next several days is prompting the California Independent System Operator to issue a Flex Alert for Friday, which means residents are being asked to reduce power usage from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m.

California is expected to have record-breaking heat, up to 10-20 degrees above normal in some areas.

At La Tapatia restaurant in Martinez, they like heat in the food but not so much in the kitchen.

“It’s difficult. I tell you the guys in the kitchen they should be awarded special hazard pay, cause it gets very warm in the kitchen,” said Ernesto Guerrero, the restaurant owner.

Guerrero, the restaurant owner, had a small air-conditioning unit installed Thursday. He says without indoor dining, they are able to save on cooling, but it’s hard for restaurants to conserve much more during dinner hour.

DOWNLOAD KTVU’S WEATHER APP HERE

“We ventilate the place prior to opening up. We turn on the air conditioners last, because not only do we want to conserve energy but it’s also costly. Stoves and refrigeration we can’t do much about,” said Guerrero.

The main concern is people running air conditioners longer will put a strain on the power grid. Power supplies also could be even tighter, as cloud cover is expected to cause a drop in solar power.

[This next line is priceless, emphasis mine. HT/@MikeBastasch for calling out on Twitter]

“The cloud cover obviously reduces the solar output and so that further tightens our electricity supplies,”

said Anne Gonzales, a California ISO spokeswoman.

CAL-ISO says by federal law, they must maintain power reserves, so if demand outstrips supply, there might be outages.

Full article here.

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August 15, 2020 at 12:28PM

Yakutia – Wet snow and first frosts in mid-August

From the 16th to 17th in the agricultural regions of Yakutia, as well as in the south of the Tomponsky and Aldan regions and in the vicinity of the capital of the republic – Yakutsk – the air and the soil surface will freeze to -3ºC, in the northeast to -2.7°C, in the northwest to -4°C, accordingto Meteonosti-RU.

Over the northeast of Yakutia small and moderate rains will remain in some places, with wet snow … and on Saturday night the air will freeze to -3°C.

**The very first frosts in the current year, 2020, were observed in Yakutia in Kolyma on the night of July 31 to August 1.

Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

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August 15, 2020 at 12:15PM

German TV Propaganda: Now Forecast Charts For Regular Summer Weather Made To Look Like Images Of Hell

WARNING: Watching too much German public television will make you hysterical, and pretty stupid (if you’re already leaning in that direction)

Sometimes you really wonder: can people be fooled really so easily?

German ARD public television network apparently thinks so, and has since gone off the deep end with the hype, drama and disinformation they add to their reports. I guess they think it’s working.

At Facebook one person illustrated this very well by showing the evolution of weather charts used by ARD German television in 2009, 2019 and this year. If you were to rate numerically the level of redness and fiery imagery and plot it,  you’d get a real hockey stick trend. Check out the forecast chart evolution below:

Hat-tip: Axel Robert Göhring at Facebook

In 2009, a nice hot summer day way forecast using pleasant color scheme of yellow and green. Even the “Samstag” (Saturday) forecast of highs from 19-25°C used the same green color scheme as it did for showing 34-36°C.

But as the years went by, Germans refused to panic enough about warming, and so by 2019 everything charts had to look hot and unbearable – even for forecasts of 20°C, see middle chart. Even temperatures in the 70sF look warm and toasty.

Then last year came doomsday prophet Greta with her inferno-visions and messages of hell. This year, weather forecast charts of highs in the 70s! to upper 80s are exploded in size, and made to look like explosion-like inferno images taken from beyond the gates of Hell. Just a note: I’m not sure if the 2020 chart is from ARD or another station, but you get the idea of what’s going on.

Also read here.

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August 15, 2020 at 11:10AM

“The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change” – AOC

Video – Is the Green New Deal about tackling climate change or a hostile takeover of the U.S. economy?
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Climate plan not about the environment at all.

Tucker confronts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez adviser Robert Hockett on agenda behind Green New Deal.

“Do you guys really think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a “how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”

It’s not about the environment. It’s about power.

The left realizes it can gain power by scaring you.

The post “The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change” – AOC appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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August 15, 2020 at 09:46AM