Climate models are too unreliable to be any serious guide to the future, as the author points out. But getting decision makers to understand that is near-impossible in many countries, hence the acceptance of alarmist nonsense.
– – –
Shock, horror: According to the WMO and the Met Office, there is a 3% chance of the forthcoming five-year global temperature average exceeding 1.5°C, says Dr. David Whitehouse @ The GWPF.
There are several definitions of hustle. One of them is to use forceful actions to promote an action or point of view.
It’s everywhere of course and in all aspects of climate change. It’s all too apparent when scientists want grants, jobs and headlines.
It’s no new discovery that combining hustle with statistics can get you anywhere.
The recently released news from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), prepared by the UK Met Office, that there is a “growing chance” of the world exceeding the “Paris threshold” of 1.5°C in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is a prime example of this.
It says there is a 20% chance that one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C, and a 70% chance a single month will during the same period.
Another way of saying this, statistically equally justifiable, is that there is an 80% chance that global annual average temperatures will not increase statistically significantly over the next five years. There are no headlines saying that!
Just for a moment think what this means. If there is no significant change in global average temperature by 2025, we will be able to look back thirty years (the official definition of climate) and note that the two major warming episodes, 1998 and 2015, were both due to natural climatic variability, in this case two El Nino events.
In many ways, the WMO report is more a testament to the importance of natural climatic variability than it is to long-term anthropogenic warming.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
July 11, 2020 at 04:51AM