Overview

The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots 77% of the time this year which is the same exact percentage experienced during all of 2019.  In fact, last year turned out to be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 with 281 spotless days as the solar minimum phase intensified from the year before.  Back-to-back years of very high levels of spotlessness on the sun would certainly support the notion this is indeed a noteworthy and deep solar minimum.  Solar minimum represents the end of solar cycle #24 which featured the fewest number of sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Some of the predictions for solar cycle #25 suggest that it may peak in July 2025 and continue the trend of weakening solar cycles that began around 1980 when solar cycle 21 peaked in sunspot activity. 

One of the natural effects of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more and more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. In fact, one measurement indicates that cosmic ray activity is very close to an all-time high for the satellite era. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as Earth’s cloud cover and climate, the safety of air travelers, and as a possible trigger mechanism for lightning.  

Solar minimum and the intensification of cosmic rays 

Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from outside the solar system that can reach the Earth’s atmosphere. The planet’s atmosphere and magnetic field combine to form a formidable ‘shield’ against space radiation, protecting life on the surface. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during solar maximum and weakest during solar minimum with the weakening magnetic field and solar wind.  The intensity of cosmic rays can vary globally by about 15% over a solar cycle because of changes in the strength of the solar wind.

Earth is in no great peril from the extra cosmic rays. In fact, humans have weathered storms much worse than this. Hundreds of years ago, cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200 percent higher than they are now according to space.com. Researchers know this because when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, they produce an isotope of beryllium, 10 Be, which is preserved in polar ice. By examining ice cores, it is possible to estimate cosmic ray fluxes more than a thousand years into the past. Even with the recent surge, cosmic rays today are much weaker than they have been at times in the past millennium.

One of the ways to measure the influx of cosmic rays is through a neutron monitor ground-based detector which is designed to measure the number of high-energy charged particles reaching the Earth’s upper atmosphere.  For historical purposes the incoming particles are called cosmic “rays”, but they are, in fact, particles, predominantly protons and helium nuclei. Most of the time, a neutron monitor records galactic cosmic rays and their variation within the 11-year sunspot cycle and 22-year magnetic cycle.  The neutron monitor was invented at the University of Chicago in 1948 and the “18-tube” monitor is a large instrument weighing about 36 tons (info courtesy Wikipedia). The Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory at the University of Oulu neutron monitor in Finland, which has been making measurements since 1964, currently is reporting levels that are very close to the satellite era maximum reached in 2009 (last solar minimum).

Solar minimum and an increase in stratospheric radiation

Another way to monitor cosmic ray penetration into the Earth’s upper atmosphere is to measure stratospheric radiation over an extended period of time.  “Spaceweather.com” has led a long-term effort to monitor radiation levels in the stratosphere over California with frequent high-altitude helium balloon flights.  These balloons contain sensors which detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV and are produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth’s atmosphere. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.  The findings confirm the notion that indeed cosmic rays have been steadily increasing over California as the sun has headed into a solar minimum phase.  

Consequences of increasing cosmic rays

1)     Cloud cover/climate

The correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover over a solar cycle was first reported by Svensmark and Friis-Christensen in 1997. A more recent study by Svensmark published in the August 2016 issue of Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics continues to support the idea of an important connection between cosmic rays and clouds. Yet another study in 2019 supports the idea of a connection between cosmic rays and cloud cover and even to an increased strength in the East Asian winter monsoon.

In the original publication from 1997, the authors found that “the observed variation of 3–4% of the global cloud cover during the recent solar cycle is strongly correlated with the cosmic ray flux. This, in turn, is inversely correlated with the solar activity. The effect is larger at higher latitudes in agreement with the shielding effect of the Earth’s magnetic field on high-energy charged particles. The above relation between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover should also be of importance in an explanation of the correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature that has been found”.

2)     Threat to air travelers

Not only can an increase of cosmic rays have an impact on Earth’s cloud cover and climate, it is of special interest to air travelers.  Cosmic radiation at aviation altitudes is typically 50 times that of natural sources at sea level. Cosmic rays cause “air showers” of secondary particles when they hit Earth’s atmosphere. Indeed, this is what neutron monitors and cosmic ray balloons are measuring–the secondary spray of cosmic rays that rains down on Earth. Secondary cosmic rays penetrate the hulls of commercial aircraft, dosing passengers with the whole body equivalent of a dental X-ray even on ordinary mid-latitude flights across the USA. International travelers receive even greater doses (source). The International Commission on Radiological Protection has classified pilots as occupational radiation workers because of accumulated cosmic ray doses they receive while flying. Moreover, a recent study by researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health shows that flight attendants face an elevated risk of cancer compared to members of the general population. They listed cosmic rays as one of several risk factors.

3)     Possible lightning trigger

Finally, there has been some research suggesting there is a connection between cosmic rays and lightning (paper 1, paper 2).  When cosmic rays smash into molecules in our atmosphere, the collisions create showers of subatomic particles, including electrons, positrons, and other electrically charged particles. This shower of electrons would collide into still more air molecules, generating more electrons. All in all, cosmic rays could each set off an avalanche of electrons and trigger lightning. 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

Guest Blogger / 1 min ago July 10, 2020

Guest post by Paul Dorian

*On July 10, 1913, Death Valley, California reached an amazing 134 degrees…the hottest temperature ever reliably recorded in a year with many remarkable weather events*

Overview

The high temperature in Death Valley, California on Friday will come close to 120°F, but this is still well short of the all-time record there that occurred way back in 1913. On July 10th, 1913, the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134°F. One hundred and seven years later, this is still the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth. In addition to this all-time and worldwide high temperature record, the year of 1913 produced numerous other extreme weather events. 

Why so hot in Death Valley?

Death Valley National Park is the largest national park in the continental US and is located in the Mojave Desert of southeast California. It contains a vast range of elevations and landscapes and is known for being a land of extremes including its climate. In fact, the depth and shape of Death Valley contribute greatly to its extreme heat. Specifically, the extreme heat is due to a combination of several factors including the elevation below sea level (282 feet), the lack of vegetation; especially, on the lowest part of the valley floor which allows sunlight to directly heat the desert surface, the narrow width of the valley and its north-south orientation which traps air in the valley allowing it to be recycled back down to the valley floor, radiation of heat from the rocky surfaces of the mountains that surround the valley, and the low humidity as dry air heats at a much quicker rate than moist air and greatly inhibits the formation of clouds. Temperatures in Death Valley normally reach or exceed 100°F from mid-May until early October.

Extreme weather of 1913

The intense heat of July 1913 in California was not the only extreme heat measured that year in the US.  There was a widespread heat wave in June of that same year across the eastern half of the nation which resulted in many readings above 100°F.  In fact, NOAA’s official temperature records still cite June 16, 1913 as the hottest ever on a nationwide basis for that particular date.  In addition to the excessive heat seen across the US that year, there are newspaper articles from that same time period suggesting high heat may have taken place in others part of the world.  One such article (excerpt shown above) written on March 30, 1913 reported that “recent observations seem to show that glaciers are gradually disappearing all over the world”. 

In addition to the extreme heat, 1913 featured other severe and deadly weather events across the US.  During March, one of the worst floods ever in this nation took place after major rivers in the central and eastern US flooded from runoff and several days of heavy rain.  This flood now referred to as the “Great Flood of 1913” remains one of the worst natural disasters ever for Ohio with places like Dayton in the southwestern part of the state submerged underwater for several days.  Later that same very eventful year, one of the worst storms ever for the Great Lakes region took place and it is now referred to in multiple ways including “White Hurricane”, “Freshwater Fury” or simply “The Great Lakes Storm of 1913”.  This powerful storm was a blizzard with hurricane-force winds that devastated the Great Lakes Basin and the province of Ontario in Canada from November 7 through November 10, 1913.

During July 1913, Death Valley, California endured an intense stretch of hot weather from the 5th through the 14th when the high temperature reached 125°F or higher each and every day. In fact, this 10-day stretch still ranks as the hottest stretch ever recorded in Death Valley. The hottest days in this time period occurred from the 9th through the 13th when the high temperature reached at least 129°F with the hottest being on July 10th when the record-breaking 134°F was measured.

Weather station reliability at Greenland Ranch

In terms of the reliability of the Greenland Ranch weather station at Death Valley, California, there should be little question in that regard.  The US Weather Bureau (now known as the US National Weather Service) actually established this weather station in 1911 in cooperation with the company that operated the ranch.  In their own words, the US Weather Bureau “carefully tested maximum and minimum thermometers” and stated that “the instrument shelter at this station is the same as those used at several thousand other weather stations maintained by the Weather Bureau throughout the United States”. The US Weather Bureau summarized by stating “the extreme maximum temperature of 134°F recorded on July 10, 1913, is the highest natural-air temperature ever recorded on the earth’s surface by means of a tested standard thermometer exposed in a standard ventilated instrument shelter”.

Interesting twist to the record

In this particular case, we are dealing with what appears to be a reliable high temperature record that was set long ago and still stands today as the all-time record on the planet, but there is an interesting twist to the record.  The Death Valley, California record of 134°F was less than a decade old when it fell to a new record. On September 13, 1922, a temperature of 136°F was recorded at El Azizia, Libya and this was indeed cited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for nine decades as the world’s highest temperature ever recorded. However, on September 12th, 2012, the WMO officially re-certified the 134 degree reading of July 10th, 1913 at Death Valley, California as the all-time highest air temperature ever recorded on Earth after evidence surfaced suggesting the Libya record of 136°F was based on a reading from a bad thermometer that was placed in the wrong place (near asphalt) and read by an untrained observer.

In fact, there are many risks when comparing high temperature records set in today’s world to those set decades ago. Many of today’s “official” reporting weather stations have had significant growth in development (housing, roads, etc.) in their immediate surrounding region with materials like asphalt and concrete that are known to have an overall warming effect on temperatures. This “urban heat island (UHI)” effect has become an increasingly important problem to deal with in the analysis of long-term temperature trends and the evaluation of modern day high temperature records. In the Southwest US, for example, where populations have doubled or tripled in the past 50 years near official reporting weather stations (e.g., Las Vegas, NV, Phoenix, AZ), the UHI effect has become important enough that record high temperature records of today are questioned in some locations.  Even the inhospitable region of Death Valley has had some development in the area surrounding today’s weather station at Furnace Creek with asphalt roads now leading to a nearby visitor’s center – all of which makes this long-surviving record of 134°F set in 1913 at Greenland Ranch very impressive indeed.

One final note of interest, the coldest temperature ever recorded at Death Valley occurred in, yes, the same year of 1913.  On January 8th, 1913, the temperature dropped to 15°F at Furnace Creek which is the lowest ever recorded in Death Valley.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

Perspecta, Inc.

perspectaweather.com

Energy Consumers To Pay For £25bn Green Energy Plan

vor 3 Min.

• ofgem

By Paul Homewood

Spend £25 billion to save £20 a year. That sounds like a bargain!!

The energy watchdog has announced new plans to transform the UK’s gas power network, upgrading it to be more “green” and potentially saving Brits an average of £20 a year on their energy bills.

Ofgem, the energy regulator, on Thursday published plans to invest £25bn ($32bn) over five years to develop more “clean” gas energy network the UK. The investment will go into the infrastructure that transports energy around the UK.

The plan would be paid for by energy companies themselves. The regulator has proposed doubling a cap on how much money energy firms can return to their investors and reducing firm’s spending plans to ensure costs do not rise for consumers.

Ofgem estimates the average gas bill would in fact fall by £20 per year at the start of its transformation plan.

“Ofgem is working to deliver a greener, fairer energy system for consumers,” chief executive Jonathan Brearley said in a statement.

“This is why we are striking a fair deal for consumers, cutting returns to the network companies to an unprecedented low level while making room for around £25bn of investment needed to drive a clean, green and resilient recovery.

“Now more than ever, we need to make sure that every pound on consumers‘ bills goes further. Less of your money will go towards company shareholders, and more into improving the network to power the economy and to fight climate change.”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ofgem-green-energy-plan-25bn-bills-national-grid-sse-gas-082131746.html

If you read the small print however,  the £20 a year saving only applies at the start of its transformation plan.

By the time the plan is completed, households will have paid out about £1000 each to fight climate change. As the plan covers five years, that works out at £200 a year.

We are not told exactly what this will cover, but we know it only covers power transmission and gas distribution. Plans for electricity distribution will be announced later, and will doubtless cost billions more.

None of this money includes the cost of subsidising renewables, which is accounted for separately. Presumably it will cover grid enhancements necessary for accommodating renewable energy, and I suspect preparation for a hydrogen grid.

What is certain though is that this £25 billion is loose change, compared to the eventual cost to be placed on consumers. By doing it piecemeal in this way, OFGEM is hoping that nobody will notice the true impact on their energy bills.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

‘

Michael Shellenberger: Climate Alarmism Is Misleading And Immoral

JULY 9, 2020 By The Federalist Staff

SUBSCRIBE TO THE FEDERALIST RADIO HOUR HERE.

On this episode of The Federalist Radio Hour, bestselling author, journalist, and environmental activist Michael Shellenberger joins host Ben Domenech to discuss climate alarmism and how the left-wing media and activists have distorted the urgency of climate change. Shellenberger just published his most recent book, “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All,” this month.

Shellenberger condemned the left’s journalists, climate activists, and malthusian scientists for promoting climate alarmism. The radical left has taken an immoral position by denying vast, inexpensive energy sources to all people, he said, which they consider to be the moral center of apocalyptic environmentalism.

“We’re not in a life boat. We have functionally infinite energy, and there’s no resource scarcity to speak of. And in fact that kind of discourse has always been used to deprive people of prosperity,” he said.

 

 

We have functionally infinite energy, and there’s no resource scarcity to speak of… that kind of discourse has always been used to deprive people.’

Quelle: Michael Shellenberger: Climate Alarmism Is Misleading And Immoral