More extreme weather events with planetary warming–Met Office

More extreme weather events with planetary warming–Met Office

By Paul Homewood

More misinformation from the Met Office:

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As the planet warms, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall is expected to increase.

Corresponding decreases in cool weather events along with changes to dry spells are also expected.

Understanding and quantifying this change is the focus of an updated dataset examining weather data from more than 36,000 weather stations between 1901 and 2018. An international team of scientists from 39 different institutions – led by the Met Office – has gathered data to compile a dataset known as HadEX3 containing 29 indices of weather extremes (17 relating to temperature and 12 relating to precipitation). The development and initial analysis of HadEX3 have today been published in a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres.

Dr Robert Dunn of the Met Office is the lead author. Commenting on the update, he said: “Looking at the changing climate by studying the frequency of extreme weather events provides a different perspective on climate change, complementing other metrics such as annual average temperature rise.

“It is extreme weather events which make the impacts of climate change real for people, and these events also present the greatest shocks to human health and well-being, financial economies and of course, the biosphere.”

One of the clearest indices tracks the upward trend in daily maximum temperature, showing a clear increase in the number of warm days globally, when compared with the number of warm days between 1961-1990. As the map above shows, the greatest increase is observed in tropical regions of South America, Northern Africa and through Asia. Similarly, the number of warm nights in these regions have increased by over eight days per decade, leading to a doubling since the late 1970s.

The variability of rainfall over space and time tends to be greater than temperature, so the trend is perhaps less clear, although there is a trend of an increasing contribution to total annual rainfall from very wet days, with an extra two per cent of precipitation falling compared to 1961-90.

The map above compares differences between two periods:1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Some areas such as the equatorial region of eastern South America and north of the Bay of Bengal seeing more rain failing in heavy events, but other areas such as eastern Australia have seen a corresponding decrease.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/hadex3-july-2020

Just look at that opening claim again:

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For a start, there is no evidence in the study quoted to justify such a claim. All the study does is to analyse changes between two periods, 1961-90 and 1981-2010. Just because it has become wetter in some areas. for instance, does not mean that trend will continue. Indeed, many of these changes are connected to multidecadal ocean cycles, so it is likely they could actually reverse.

More importantly though, there are two sides to every coin. Summer days may be slightly hotter in a warmer climate, but as the article also points out:

Corresponding decreases in cool weather events along with changes to dry spells are also expected.

In other words, “extreme weather events are not increasing”. There may be more heatwaves, but equally there will be fewer extreme cold spells.

The same applies to rainfall. Some areas may be wetter, but that also means that there is less drought.

The map shows this well, with notably heavier rain across the US and Sahel. Far from being “extreme weather”, this has actually relieved severe drought in both regions. India as well is another country which suffered long and severe droughts in the 1960s and 70s.

The Met Office, of course, have been trying to sell the extreme weather scare for years now. Shoddy misinterpretation of what the data actually says is sadly par for the course.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Author: uwe.roland.gross

Don`t worry there is no significant man- made global warming. The global warming scare is not driven by science but driven by politics. Al Gore and the UN are dead wrong on climate fears. The IPCC process is a perversion of science.