Daily Archives: 7. July 2020
Paradogma (II)
Are The Poles Reversing? Earth’s Magnetic Field 10 Times More Volatile Than Expected
A Historian Looks at Climate Change
A Major Outbreak of Noctilucent Clouds
A Major Outbreak of Noctilucent Clouds
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Is the natural world trying to tell us something, as the solar minimum continues?
July 6, 2020: Last night, July 5-6, a major outbreak of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) blanketed Europe. Electric-blue tendrils of frosted meteor smoke rippled over almost every European capital from Scandinavia to the Adriatic. “It was the most phenomenal display of NLCs I’ve seen in my life,” says Viktor Veres, who photographed the outbreak from Budapest, Hungary:
“I was just getting ready for dinner when one of my friends, Alex, cried ‘NLC party time!’,” says Veres. “The electric-blue clouds were almost directly overhead. I sprinted to the car (partially dressing in the street) and drove up Gellért Hill for a view of the clouds over the most famous sights of Budapest–the Danube River, Chain Bridge, Buda Castle, and Parliament. And, yes, my dinner got cold.”
Paris was also “overcast” by noctilucent clouds. “They were very bright,” reports Bertrand Kulik, who shot them floating above the Eiffel Tower:
“The shapes of the…
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via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
July 7, 2020 at 02:51PM
Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 188 – 2020 — sunshine hours
Flawed Models: New Studies Find Plants Take Up “More Than Twice As Much” CO2 Than Expected
Flawed Models: New Studies Find Plants Take Up “More Than Twice As Much” CO2 Than Expected
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt at Die kalte Sonne
(Translated by P. Gosselin)
June 7, 2020
Dear ladies and gentlemen
First, the global mean temperature of satellite based measurements was surprisingly much higher in May 2020 than in April. In contrast, the global temperatures of the series of measurements on land and sea decreased. The difference can be explained by the fact that under warm El-Nino conditions the satellite measurements lag about 2-3 months behind the earth-based measurements.
From November 2019 to March 2020 a moderate El-Nino was observed, which has now been replaced by neutral conditions in the Pacific. Therefore, it is to be expected that also the satellite based measurements, which we use at this point, will show a decrease in temperatures within 2-3 months.
The average temperature increase since 1981 remained unchanged at 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. The sunspot number of 0.2 corresponded to the expectations of the solar minimum.
The earth is greening
In August 2019, I reported on a remarkable publication by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg: “Our main finding,” said Aexander Winkler’s researchers at the time, “is that the effect of CO2 concentration on terrestrial photosynthesis is greater than previously thought and therefore has important implications for the future carbon cycle.
According to this, the CO2 attenuation effect of plants is 60% higher than the average of climate models had assumed.
“In the last two decades, an average of 310,000 km² of additional leaf and needle area – roughly the size of Poland or Germany – has been created every year,” the researchers say. I had shared this important finding with the members of the German Bundestag at the time, which led Stefan Rahmstorf to conclude that I was “trying to fool the German Bundestag“. This assessment was taken up by some media such as the TAZ and ultimately led to my dismissal as sole director of the German Wildlife Foundation.
New confirmation: CO2 uptake by plants is increasing
In April ,2020, a research group led by the Australian scientist Vanessa Haverd published a paper in Global Change Biology which more than confirmed the findings of the Max Planck Institute. The researchers describe that plants have absorbed 30% more CO2 since 1900. The previous estimates were 17%. In their calculation for a mild increase in CO2 in this century (IPCC scenario 2.6), the researchers led by Vanessa Haverd arrived at a net uptake of 528 billion tonnes of CO2 by plants by 2100, compared to the 238 billion tonnes of CO2 previously calculated by climate models.
According to Adam Riese, this is more than twice as much. By way of comparison: In scenario 2.6, a total of 1000 billion tonnes of CO2 (IPCC, Chapter 6, p. 468) will be emitted in this century. Today the plant world absorbs about 30% of the anthropogenic CO2 annually, the oceans another 24%.
In contrast, the statement of the IPCC in its last report from 2013 (p.26 of the Summary for Policymakers) is diametrically different: “Based on Earth system models, there is a high confidence that the feedback between climate development and the carbon cycle in the 21st century is positive. As a result, more of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted will remain in the atmosphere. Maybe I need to write to the German Bundestag again.
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via NoTricksZone
July 7, 2020 at 12:52PM
HCQ Proven First Responder to SARS CV2
HCQ Proven First Responder to SARS CV2
HCQ Prevents Covid19
The first column on the left is sometimes called PrEP, or pre-exposure to the virus SARS CV2. Now we are getting studies confirming that HCQ plays an important prophylactic role in blocking the virus from taking hold when someone is infected. The Times of India June 19, 2020, article is HCQ beneficial as preventive drug: SMS doctors told ICMR. Excerpts in italics with my bolds
JAIPUR: Sawai Man Singh Hospital was the first to use hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and anti-HIV drugs — Lopinavir and Ritonavir — to treat the first few Covid-19 patients besides using the combination as a preventive drug on others.
More than 4,300 healthcare workers including doctors and nurses have been given HCQ to help them prevent the infection as there are high chances of them getting infected while treating Covid patients.
“As far as prophylaxis is concerned, more than 4,300 doctors and health works were given HCQ as approved by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) out of which around 45 health persons tested positive and recovered later,” said Dr Sudhir Bhandari, principal and controller, SMS Medical College.
The hospital claimed that preventive treatment approach at SMS Hospital has been very rewarding and results of these have been shared with ICMR.
“We have used these drugs with perfect scientific background and proven efficacy in SARS Cov-2 Infection and SMS Medical College created a bridge between point of no specific treatment till the specific drug treatment is established. All these drugs were part of solidarity trial by WHO of which SMS Hospital is a centre,” said Bhandari.
SMS Hospital was declared as non-Covid hospital on June 1. But before that, it emerged as a role model of management of Covid patients. From the very beginning, 300 ICU beds and more than thousand IPD beds were dedicated for Covid patients. A separate Covid OPD and observation wards for suspects was created at Charak Bhawan. Also, 28 wards were created for Covid patients of different categories. For critically ill patients, Infectious Disease Hospital (IDH) was fully equipped with ICU facilities.
During the peak of the pandemic, average 500 plus patients were admitted to SMS from asymptomatic category to severe category.
Number of faculty was put on floor duty, which included consultants from the department of medicine and anaesthesia. Resident doctors were doing duty in each shift and hundreds of nursing, paramedics and technicians were on round-the-clock duty.
HCQ Clears the Virus Before Severity
A recent meta-study reports on HCQ efficacy post-exposure (PEP) and in Early stages I and II. Clinical Efficacy of Chloroquine derivatives in COVID-19 Infection: Comparative meta-analysis between the Big data and the real world Excerpts in italics with my bolds.
Only studies comparing a group of COVID19 patients treated with a chloroquine derivative to a control group without chloroquine derivatives were included. Non-comparative (single arm) studies and studies comparing two groups treated with chloroquine derivatives at different dosages or with different delay of treatment were excluded. Studies were classified as “big data” studies when conducted on electronic medical records extracted by public health specialists and epidemiologists who did not care COVID106 19 patients themselves. Conversely, studies were classified as “clinical studies” when mentioning details of treatments (dosages, duration, contraindications, monitoring…) and conducted by authors physicians (infectious diseases and internal medicine specialists, and pulmonologists) who cared for COVID-19 patients themselves.
Twenty studies were identified involving 105,040 patients (19,270 treated patients) from nine countries (Brazil, China, France, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, and USA). Big data observational studies were associated with conflict of interest, lack of treatment dosage and duration, and absence of favorable outcome. Clinical studies were associated with favorable outcomes and details on therapy. Among clinical studies, three of four randomized controlled trials reported a significant favorable effect.
Among clinical studies, a significant favorable summary effect was observed for duration of cough (Odds ratio (OR), 0.19, p = .00003), duration of fever (0.11, p = .039), clinical cure (0.21, p = .0495), death (0.32, p = 4.1×10-6) and viral shedding (0.43, p = .031). A trend for a favorable effect was noted for the outcome “death and/or ICU transfer” (0.29, p = .069) with a point estimate remarkably similar to that observed for death (∼0.3). In conclusion, a meta-analysis of publicly available clinical reports demonstrates that chloroquine derivatives are effective to improve clinical and virological outcomes but, more importantly, it reduces mortality by a factor 3 in patients infected with COVID-19.
All “big data” studies reported a lack of beneficial effect of the treatment and were significantly more likely associated with “Cons” variable (5/5 vs 3/15, p = .004). This was also observed by examination of the meta-analysis forest plot (Figure 2, Table S3 to S8). In addition, both “conflicts of interest” (p = .01) and “not described treatment protocol” variables (p = .004) were associated with “Cons” variable. Conversely, clinical studies were more likely to report a favorable effect of chloroquine derivatives in COVID-19 patients (p <.05). Consistently, clinical studies with detailed treatment protocol were more likely associated with the observation of a favorable effect of the treatment (p < .05).
In the big data analyses, 4 comparisons reported a significant effect, and all were deleterious (4/4). In the clinical studies, 17 comparisons reported a significant effect, and all were beneficial.
HCQ Saves Lives of Severely Sick Patients
The Henry Ford Hospital in Michigan reported ‘Trump Drug’ Hydroxychloroquine ‘Significantly’ Reduces Death Rate From COVID-19, Henry Ford Health Study Finds. H/T Jaime Jessop. Excerpts in italics with my bolds
A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday.
Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug “significantly” decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.
The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died.
Among all the patients in the study, there was an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 18%, and many who died had underlying conditions, the hospital system said. Globally, the mortality rate for hospitalized patients is between 10% and 30%, and 58% among those in the ICU or on a ventilator.
“As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight,” said Steven Kalkanis, CEO of the Henry Ford Medical Group. “And the data here is clear that there was a benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”
For more details on the meta-study see HCQ Hit Job by Big Pharma Data Miners
Full listing of research on HCQ+ regarding coronavirus is at The Palmer Foundation
via Science Matters
July 7, 2020 at 10:18AM
Earthquake Event Stream / World Weather / July 7, 2020 Earthquakes
Earthquake Event Stream / World Weather / July 7, 2020
