Covid discussion thread: Part IX — Iowa Climate Science Education

by Judith Curry

Some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

This is really a fantastic manuscript on what we know today about #COVID19 biology and immunology. https://cell.com/immunity/pdf/S1074-7613(20)30183-7.pdf

Fine COVID19 seroprevalence study in hard-hit Geneva finds peak at 10·8%. Also, for every confirmed case, there were ~12 undetected. Epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in population. https://thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931304-0…

German study which concludes that making masks compulsory reduces daily growth rate in infections by 40%.[link]

“The speed by which structural information on the #SARSCoV2 virus has been collected is astonishing.” And that’s paving many ways to block it; a brief and helpful overview https://nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16779-4

There are now 2 series of people who were asymptomatic but had lung CT scans Diamond Princess https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200110… Korea https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.09.20096370v1… Both showed a high % of abnormalities, ground-glass opacities

‘Superforecasters’ Are Making Accurate Predictions About COVID-19 [link]

#COVID19 vaccine development is moving forward at an unprecedented speed on the global efforts and challenges .https://sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/story/2020-06-06/race-for-vaccine

“Norwegian scientist Birger Sørensen has claimed #SARSCoV2 is not natural in origin. The study from Sørensen and British professor Angus Dalgleish show that #coronavirus’ spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.“ [link]Study suggests Vitamin K could help fight coronavirus [link]

pparently SARS-CoV-2 has another method of entering cells besides the ACE-2 receptor, a surface protein called NRP1. This would have an impact on the efficacy of HCQ with respect to blocking the virus’ entry into a cell. HCQ blocks ACE-2 but not NRP1. [link]

This analysis of #covid19 clusters in Japan in the first two and a half months of the epidemic there presents some really interesting data.  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

Why COVID-19 makes people lose their sense of smell [link]

“In this cohort, the majority of asymptomatically infected persons remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection” https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2013020?query=featured_coronavirus…

Influential model judged reproducible — although software engineers called its code ‘horrible’ and ‘a buggy mess’. [link]

We detect >1300 independently-introduced transmission lineages. [link]

Resistance of children to COVID-19 infection.  How? [link]

HXQ

Does zinc supplementation enhance the clinical efficacy of HXQ in the battle against COVID-19? [link]

Senegal confirms its selection of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment with preliminary study showing hospitalisation’s length of stay of 13 days without HCQ, 11 HCQ alone and 9 HCQ+Azithromycin. https://francetvinfo.fr/monde/afrique/societe-africaine/covid-19-le-senegal-confirme-l-option-de-l-hydroxychloroquine-sur-la-base-d-etudes-preliminaires_3947713.html…

France’s first coronavirus case was in December [link]

Younger adults were the main source of 61 different outbreak clusters in Japan. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

Spain: “we implemented a … treatment outside the hospital with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin … associated with a reduction in the burden of hospital … successful in terms of the number of patients who have developed serious complications.” [link]

Indonesia will publish a clinical study showing efficacy of combinations of various antibiotics with hydroxychloroquine or Kalestra. They have done exceptionally well against COVID-19 so far. https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-claims-five-drug-combinations-effectively-reduce-novel-coronavirusTurkey, which uses hydroxychloroquine early for treatment of Covid-19, reports that ICU cases have dropped from 200 in April to 50 today.[link].

India’s health ministry guidelines for Covid-19 treatment now say hydroxychloroquine should be used as early in the disease course as possible and should be avoided in patients with severe cases. https://newsroompost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/newsroompost.com/india/health-ministry-issues-fresh-clinical-management-protocol-for-covid-19-patients/525911.html/ampUAE will not use hydroxychloroquine on severe cases any more, but still on mild and moderate patients. A few data points on a new promising stem cell treatment that reduced recovery time from 22 days to 6 days for serious cases. [link].

Policy

China defends its coronavirus response in new report https://abcn.ws/2XEzyRs

New evidence of China’s coronavirus cover-up: Scientists KNEW it was lethal and ‘clearly contagious’ before officials told the world about ‘mystery’ outbreak https://mol.im/a/8395163

UK SAGE Report  Britain’s recovery from COVID-19. says test, track & trace system is ‘not fit for purpose’https://independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IndependentSAGE-report-4.pdf

Dubious modeling is complicating Britain’s lockdown debate [link]

Understanding COVID-19 risks and vulnerabilities among black communities in America: the lethal force of syndemics – http://ow.ly/Xa9C30qOvCb

How to reset the US pandemic response [link]

Sociology 

The American Press is destroying itself [link]

Who’s to blame? These three scientists are at the heart of the Surgisphere COVID-19 scandal [link]

We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight [link]

A delicate balance: weighing protest against the rise of COVID-19 [link]

A researcher involved in the retracted Lancet study has been terminated from the University of Utah faculty. [link]

From lockdown to meltdown: the logic of intolerance [link]

Why the coronavirus is winning [link]

Has the British scientific establishment made its biggest error in history? [link]

Tribalism comes for pandemic science [link]

Abrupt, radical reversal in how public healt experts now speak about coronavirus and mass gatherings [link]

“How a retracted research paper contaminated global #coronavirus research” https://latimes.com/business/story/2020-06-08/coronavirus-retracted-paper…

The news media is destroying itself [link]

Covid-19 studies based on flawed Surgisphere data force medical journals to review processes [link]

Masks can disrupt our ability to communicate and connect. But there are ways to overcome a mask’s necessary downsides. http://ow.ly/WSrm50zSDxk

via Climate Etc.

https://ift.tt/30NWXBU

June 14, 2020 at 02:29PM

Covid discussion thread: Part IX — Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry Some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

Covid discussion thread: Part IX — Climate Etc.

← Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans

Covid discussion thread: Part IX

Posted on June 14, 2020 by curryja | 1 Comment

by Judith Curry

Some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

This is really a fantastic manuscript on what we know today about #COVID19 biology and immunology. https://cell.com/immunity/pdf/S1074-7613(20)30183-7.pdf

Fine COVID19 seroprevalence study in hard-hit Geneva finds peak at 10·8%. Also, for every confirmed case, there were ~12 undetected. Epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in population. https://thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931304-0…

German study which concludes that making masks compulsory reduces daily growth rate in infections by 40%.[link]

“The speed by which structural information on the #SARSCoV2 virus has been collected is astonishing.” And that’s paving many ways to block it; a brief and helpful overview https://nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16779-4

There are now 2 series of people who were asymptomatic but had lung CT scans Diamond Princess https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200110… Korea https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.09.20096370v1… Both showed a high % of abnormalities, ground-glass opacities

‘Superforecasters’ Are Making Accurate Predictions About COVID-19 [link]

#COVID19 vaccine development is moving forward at an unprecedented speed on the global efforts and challenges .https://sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/story/2020-06-06/race-for-vaccine

“Norwegian scientist Birger Sørensen has claimed #SARSCoV2 is not natural in origin. The study from Sørensen and British professor Angus Dalgleish show that #coronavirus’ spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.“ [link]Study suggests Vitamin K could help fight coronavirus [link]

pparently SARS-CoV-2 has another method of entering cells besides the ACE-2 receptor, a surface protein called NRP1. This would have an impact on the efficacy of HCQ with respect to blocking the virus’ entry into a cell. HCQ blocks ACE-2 but not NRP1. [link]

This analysis of #covid19 clusters in Japan in the first two and a half months of the epidemic there presents some really interesting data.  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

Why COVID-19 makes people lose their sense of smell [link]

“In this cohort, the majority of asymptomatically infected persons remained asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection” https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2013020?query=featured_coronavirus…

Influential model judged reproducible — although software engineers called its code ‘horrible’ and ‘a buggy mess’. [link]

We detect >1300 independently-introduced transmission lineages. [link]

Resistance of children to COVID-19 infection.  How? [link]

HXQ

Does zinc supplementation enhance the clinical efficacy of HXQ in the battle against COVID-19? [link]

Senegal confirms its selection of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment with preliminary study showing hospitalisation’s length of stay of 13 days without HCQ, 11 HCQ alone and 9 HCQ+Azithromycin. https://francetvinfo.fr/monde/afrique/societe-africaine/covid-19-le-senegal-confirme-l-option-de-l-hydroxychloroquine-sur-la-base-d-etudes-preliminaires_3947713.html…

France’s first coronavirus case was in December [link]

Younger adults were the main source of 61 different outbreak clusters in Japan. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

Spain: “we implemented a … treatment outside the hospital with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin … associated with a reduction in the burden of hospital … successful in terms of the number of patients who have developed serious complications.” [link]

Indonesia will publish a clinical study showing efficacy of combinations of various antibiotics with hydroxychloroquine or Kalestra. They have done exceptionally well against COVID-19 so far. https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-claims-five-drug-combinations-effectively-reduce-novel-coronavirusTurkey, which uses hydroxychloroquine early for treatment of Covid-19, reports that ICU cases have dropped from 200 in April to 50 today.[link].

India’s health ministry guidelines for Covid-19 treatment now say hydroxychloroquine should be used as early in the disease course as possible and should be avoided in patients with severe cases. https://newsroompost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/newsroompost.com/india/health-ministry-issues-fresh-clinical-management-protocol-for-covid-19-patients/525911.html/ampUAE will not use hydroxychloroquine on severe cases any more, but still on mild and moderate patients. A few data points on a new promising stem cell treatment that reduced recovery time from 22 days to 6 days for serious cases. [link].

Policy

China defends its coronavirus response in new report https://abcn.ws/2XEzyRs

New evidence of China’s coronavirus cover-up: Scientists KNEW it was lethal and ‘clearly contagious’ before officials told the world about ‘mystery’ outbreak https://mol.im/a/8395163

UK SAGE Report  Britain’s recovery from COVID-19. says test, track & trace system is ‘not fit for purpose’https://independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IndependentSAGE-report-4.pdf

Dubious modeling is complicating Britain’s lockdown debate [link]

Understanding COVID-19 risks and vulnerabilities among black communities in America: the lethal force of syndemics – http://ow.ly/Xa9C30qOvCb

How to reset the US pandemic response [link]

Sociology 

The American Press is destroying itself [link]

Who’s to blame? These three scientists are at the heart of the Surgisphere COVID-19 scandal [link]

We often accuse the right of distorting science. But the left changed the coronavirus narrative overnight [link]

A delicate balance: weighing protest against the rise of COVID-19 [link]

A researcher involved in the retracted Lancet study has been terminated from the University of Utah faculty. [link]

From lockdown to meltdown: the logic of intolerance [link]

Why the coronavirus is winning [link]

Has the British scientific establishment made its biggest error in history? [link]

Tribalism comes for pandemic science [link]

Abrupt, radical reversal in how public healt experts now speak about coronavirus and mass gatherings [link]

“How a retracted research paper contaminated global #coronavirus research” https://latimes.com/business/story/2020-06-08/coronavirus-retracted-paper…

The news media is destroying itself [link]

Covid-19 studies based on flawed Surgisphere data force medical journals to review processes [link]

Masks can disrupt our ability to communicate and connect. But there are ways to overcome a mask’s necessary downsides. http://ow.ly/WSrm50zSDxk

Climate worst-case scenarios may not go far enough, cloud data shows — Iowa Climate Science Education

The Guardian publishes another classic: “It’s worse than we thought” story.

Modelling suggests climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than thought

Oy

Worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised upwards in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds, scientists have said.

Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers.

Modelling results from more than 20 institutions are being compiled for the sixth assessment by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due to be released next year.Football pitch-sized area of tropical rainforest lost every six secondsRead more

Compared with the last assessment in 2014, 25% of them show a sharp upward shift from 3C to 5C in climate sensitivity – the amount of warming projected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the preindustrial level of 280 parts per million. This has shocked many veteran observers, because assumptions about climate sensitivity have been relatively unchanged since the 1980s.Advertisement

“That is a very deep concern,” Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “Climate sensitivity is the holy grail of climate science. It is the prime indicator of climate risk. For 40 years, it has been around 3C. Now, we are suddenly starting to see big climate models on the best supercomputers showing things could be worse than we thought.”

We’re doomed!

Worst-case projections in excess of 5C have been generated by several of the world’s leading climate research bodies, including the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and the EU’s Community Earth System Model.

Timothy Palmer, a professor in climate physics at Oxford University and a member of the Met Office’s advisory board, said the high figure initially made scientists nervous. “It was way outside previous estimates. People asked whether there was a bug in the code,” he said. “But it boiled down to relatively small changes in the way clouds are represented in the models.”

But but but…uncertainty?

The IPCC is expected to include the 5+C climate sensitivity figure in its next report on the range of possible outcomes. Scientists caution that this is a work in progress and that doubts remain because such a high figure does not fit with historical records.

Catch the full article here

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/2ABpobB

June 14, 2020 at 04:05PM

Hasn’t Met Winston Churchill Yet — Iowa Climate Science Education

Hasn’t Met Winston Churchill Yet She hasn’t met Winston Churchill yet, so can’t say if his statue should be taken down. Link This entry was posted in Uncategorized . Bookmark the permalink . via Real Climate Science https://ift.tt/2B4uzB1 June 14, 2020 at 03:35PM

Hasn’t Met Winston Churchill Yet — Iowa Climate Science Education

No early breakup for W Hudson Bay sea ice again this year: polar bears still on the ice — Iowa Climate Science Education

No early breakup of Hudson Bay sea ice again this year: there is still extensive thick first year ice over most of Hudson Bay and all female polar bears fitted with tracking collars in Western Hudson Bay are still on the ice:

W Hudson Bay polar bears still out on the ice that’s packed together by winds. AE Derocher, 12 June 2020

Dercocher June 12 2020 tracking map Hudson Bay

Breakup of Hudson Bay sea ice as it relates to polar bear movement to land has been about the same since 1999 (about 2 weeks earlier than in the 1980s) and this year is shaping up to be no different: there is still no declining trend in date of sea ice breakup in Western Hudson Bay despite repeated predictions of imminent doom. An especially ‘early’ breakup year would have bears ashore before 15 June. Last year (2019) the first WH bear onshore was caught on film 5 July and problem bears were not recorded onshore in Churchill until the 2nd week of July.


Sea ice in Canada including Hudson Bay

Sea ice extent Canada 2020 June 12

Sea ice in Hudson Bay by ice thickness

Sea ice by stage of development (week of 8 June 2020):

Hudson Bay stage of development week of 2020 June 8

Last year at this time (week of 10 June 2019):

Hudson Bay weekly stage of development 2019 June 10

And in 2018 (week of 11 June 2018):

Hudson Bay weekly stage of development 2018 June 11

The Arctic picture

At 12 June 2020 (Day 164), sea ice over the entire Arctic looked like this:

masie_all_zoom_4km at 12 June 2020 Day 164

via polarbearscience

June 14, 2020 at 02:21PM

Sensitive Material — Iowa Climate Science Education

Twitter considers pictures of dogs posted by conservatives to be “sensitive material.” Twitter via Real Climate Science https://ift.tt/2UGMc0o June 14, 2020 at 03:35PM

Sensitive Material — Iowa Climate Science Education

Sensitive Material

Posted on June 14, 2020 by tonyheller

Twitter considers pictures of dogs posted by conservatives to be “sensitive material.”

Twitter

Deep M6.2 earthquake hits Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands — The Watchers » Latest articles

A deep earthquake registered by the USGS as M6.2 hit the Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands at 21:08 UTC on June 13, 2020 (07:08 LT, June 14). 28 weitere Wörter

Deep M6.2 earthquake hits Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands — The Watchers » Latest articles

Deep M6.2 earthquake hits Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands

Posted by Teo Blašković on June 13, 2020 at 21:57 UTC (21 hours ago)
Category: Seismic activity

Deep M6.2 earthquake hits Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands

A deep earthquake registered by the USGS as M6.2 hit the Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands at 21:08 UTC on June 13, 2020 (07:08 LT, June 14). The agency is reporting a depth of 614 km (381 miles). EMSC is reporting M6.1 at a depth of 590 km (366  miles). 

This is the second M6+ earthquake in the world since 15:51 UTC today when M6.6 struck Japan’s Ryukyu Islands region.

The epicenter was located 416 km (258 miles) N of Saipan and 440 km (273 miles) N of San Jose Village, Northern Mariana Islands.

There are no people living within 100 km (62 miles).

The USGS issued a green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses.

Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake-resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are informal (metal, timber, GI etc.) and unknown/miscellaneous types construction.

Image credit: TW/SAM, Google

Regional seismicity

Featured image credit: TW/SAM, Google

June snowfall on the Okanagan Connector —

We are less than a week away from the first official day of summer, but that didn’t stop snow from falling on Highway 97C Sunday morning.

June snowfall on the Okanagan Connector —

We are less than a week away from the first official day of summer, but that didn’t stop snow from falling on Highway 97C Sunday morning.

Environment Canada issued a special weather statement for the highway between Merritt and Kelowna warning that 2 to 5 cm of snow could fall Sunday morning.1:06Polar vortex brings snow to Ontario in May Polar vortex brings snow to Ontario in May

Meteorologist Colin Tam said having snow on the Okanagan Connector at this time of year is not an annual occurrence but isn’t unheard of.STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT

Tam is predicting the snow will taper out late Sunday afternoon.

Mid-morning highway cam footage showed snow at higher elevations including the Pennask Summit.RELATED NEWS

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